Is Peace at Hand in Ukraine? By Niall Ferguson in The Free Press.
Speaking … at the opening of the YES conference in Kyiv on Friday, [Jared] Kushner said that the key elements of a peace agreement were largely in place, with the exception of “territory,” an allusion to the Donbas region. The other elements — security guarantees for Ukraine and a “deconfliction mechanism” — had been in place since the last trilateral meeting of Russian, Ukrainian, and U.S. representatives in Abu Dhabi in January.
“If Ukraine were willing to move back to Putin’s desired line,” Kushner said, “the rest of the deal would be ready.” ...
That is, of course, a very big “if,” given the consistent refusal of the Ukrainian government to accept territorial cessions. … [Kushner] elicited incredulous laughter when he said Putin was sincere about peace talks. However, he responded: “Everything looks impossible until right before it’s achieved.” …
Military:
A year ago, I was quite concerned about Ukraine’s thinly stretched armed forces. However, Ukraine’s advances in military technology have more than compensated for these vulnerabilities. …
Nevertheless, Russia has responded in ways that dispel any notion of a Ukrainian victory. Russia continues to strike Ukrainian cities every day with drones and missiles, while Ukraine’s air defenses are much less effective than a year ago. Not only is there a shortage of Patriot interceptors; Russia has also switched to jet-powered strike drones that are much harder to intercept. Moreover, the Ukrainians are fearful that Russia is close to deploying its own version of Starlink. …
Economic:
Both the Ukrainian and Russian economies are showing signs of strain, but the strain is greater in Ukraine.
From the outset, this war has been a contest between David and Goliath. The International Monetary Fund estimates that the Russian population is 4.4 times larger than Ukraine’s and the Russian economy is 11.8 times larger (on a current dollar basis). Ukraine’s growth has stalled this year. …
Russia’s fiscal situation is ugly but workable. …
Those who continue to talk about the outcome of the war being determined by a Russian economic crisis are missing the point. It is Ukraine that is much closer to a crisis. …
China:
Russia’s war effort relies increasingly on China, but it is made available on commercial terms, not as aid. Bilateral trade between Moscow and Beijing is on track to hit an all-time high of roughly $280 billion this year. Russia now relies on China for roughly 57 percent of its total imports, compared with 13 to 14 percent before the war. China supplies around 90 percent of Russia’s sanctioned tech imports. While Beijing stops short of sending finished military hardware, it provides billions in dual-use goods — microchips, drones, and tools. And China buys about 50 percent of all Russian crude oil exports, 37 percent of its exported coal, and 31 percent of its pipeline gas. It has even defied U.S. sanctions by ramping up imports from Russia’s newer Arctic LNG 2 project. Over the last two decades, Russia has also accumulated $169.3 billion in total debt to China.
To an extent that is underappreciated, the war in Ukraine is now a proxy war between the EU and China. The difference is that China makes a profit from backing Russia. …
Political:
This is a war between a fledgling democratic nation-state and a fascist empire. In this regard, too, it is not a fair fight. Putin’s opposition is either dead, in jail, or in exile. Not so Zelensky’s. …
Ordinary Ukrainians are thoroughly sick of this war and filled with foreboding as winter approaches. … Zelensky may need a ceasefire, but he would surely not survive politically if he relinquished territory Ukraine has succeeded in defending. …
The obvious path for Putin is simply to press on through the winter, waging total war against Ukraine and exploiting his advantages, …
The trends in European politics are not friendly to Ukraine. In France, Rassemblement National leader Marine Le Pen is the favorite to succeed Emmanuel Macron as French president. In Germany, the chancellorship of Friedrich Merz is crumbling as the Alternative für Deutschland gains ground in regional elections. In Italy, Giorgia Meloni risks being outflanked by the neo-fascist Roberto Vannacci’s Futuro Nazionale. All the European populist parties are skeptical about the war in Ukraine, if not overtly pro-Russian. …
The recent U.S. visitors to Moscow offered Putin a stark choice: “Press on with the war and we will continue to provide the Ukrainians with targeting intelligence; or settle this diplomatically and we can give you the kind of economic rehabilitation you will not get from anyone else.” As usual, the Kushner-Witkoff team approaches a classic diplomatic problem — how to end a war — with the techniques of the New York real estate market. In effect, the Ukrainians are being told to sell the remaining territory they control in Donetsk at an attractive price in the form of postwar funding for reconstruction and investment. …
The Americans seem to think Putin is finally ready for serious talks in which he would effectively concede the rump Ukraine’s right to a continued independent existence, minus Crimea and Donbas.
Great article, if you’re looking for a long read.