Political, media class out of step with voters

Political, media class out of step with voters, by Chris Kenny.

Think of the media games played to support Labor. Channel 10, the ABC and other green Left media companies pushed the so-called “Watergate” scandal yet failed to interrogate Bill Shorten’s uncosted climate and energy policies. …

Labor proposed a vast plan of increased taxation at a time of economic peril and dressed it up in old-fashioned class warfare rhetoric — underestimating the public. …

When you look at how conservative voters are demonised on social media, mocked by the public broadcasters and marginalised in political debate, is it any wonder that opinion polls consistently underestimate support for right-of-centre parties?

People tend not to disclose their right-of-centre voting intentions at barbecues and footy matches because they know it can invite the stamp of the devil on their forehead. And it has long been clear this “Tory shyness” extends to responses to opinion pollsters …

While the green Left whip themselves into a lather of self-confidence and hubris based on mutual reassurance in their Canberra and media bubbles, mainstream voters quietly consider the issues. If you only watched the ABC and read Nine Media newspapers, you could not have the information required to make an informed decision, let alone be exposed to realistic analysis. If you relied on Twitter, you would be expecting Richard Di Natale to form government.

Philip is optimistic:

There really is a sense that we are on the cusp of a people’s ‘push back’. It is the gender and migration issues that are stemming the PC tide. They were steps too far. What seemed unstoppable suddenly seems unsustainable.

The autumn of our minor discontent: or 24 thoughts about the election

The autumn of our minor discontent: or 24 thoughts about the election, by Arthur Chrenkoff.

Tim Andrews…: “The Australian Labor Party ran on higher taxes, higher spending, more regulations, and destroying our economy with carbon taxes. This was – for the first time in over two decades – a clear election, a clear choice about ideology and the future of Australia. And despite all the polls, despite the left outspending the right by millions, the Australian people did what no one expected and rejected the odious big government narrative. This is huge.” …

Despite of what you will hear frequently over the coming days, this is not a victory for racism, bigotry, populism, Trumpism and so on. No amount of money could turn Clive Palmer into Trump, and Australian political system simply is not prone to those sorts of phenomena. And if you think that ScoMo is some sort of a maverick you have been drinking too much “potato head bad” Kool-Aid. …

Shorten … was probably the biggest drag on the Labor vote. People just couldn’t get to like him and trust him. Anyone else would have likely won it for Labor, and won it handsomely. …

The government wasn’t loved but it wasn’t loathed enough to balance the fears about what Labor might do to Australia again, particularly under an unlikable and unprincipled leader. …

It’s also time enough to acknowledge the increasingly prominent phenomenon Australia now shares with the UK and the US: “the shy Libs”. …

There will be no doubt many debates in the future as to why the right of centre voters are increasingly “shy”, but there is no doubt that the phenomenon is real. I can’t speak about the opinion polling, but I saw it very clearly on the election day itself. Judging by the demeanor of voters and their reactions while confronted with party workers handing out “how to vote cards”, I would have guessed that Labor and the Greens took three quarters of the vote on my polling booth. But when we actually counted the votes, the two-party-preferred vote between the Liberals (or the LNP) and Labor was less than 12 votes of 2000 cast.

Voters in mining areas turned on center-left opposition that had campaigned on climate change issues

Voters in mining areas turned on center-left opposition that had campaigned on climate change issues, by Rob Taylor with the view from the Wall Street Journal.

Australia’s conservative government eked out a surprise victory in Saturday’s national elections after voters in resource-rich districts turned against center-left opponents who had put climate change at the heart of their campaign.

Behind in polls for more than two years, Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s Liberal-National coalition appealed to voters in battleground states such as Queensland, struggling at the end of a long mining boom, with a campaign focused on the economy and jobs.

With 75% of votes counted, the conservatives were hopeful of gaining a narrow majority in Parliament’s 151-seat House of Representatives, or more likely governing in minority with the support of conservative-leaning independents. Political experts predicted the government would win 74 to 75 seats, just short of a majority and improving on the 73 seats it previously held. …

Labor campaigned on a pledge to reduce emissions by 45% from 2005 levels by 2030, after Australia under the conservatives became the first developed nation to abolish a price on carbon in 2014. The party also promised a push on renewable energy and electric vehicles.

While the message appealed to many city voters, voters in resource-rich regions worried Labor’s climate plan would drive up living costs and put coal miners out of work. Mr. Morrison’s government approved a controversial coal mine in northeastern Queensland planned by Indian conglomerate Adani Corp just days before declaring elections. …

“When climate change is a moral issue, we Liberals do it tough. When climate change is an economic issue, we do well,” Mr. Abbott said Saturday as he conceded defeat.

Morrison is vindicated

Morrison is vindicated, by Denis Shanahan.

Scott Morrison believes in miracles, always has, always will and doesn’t care who knows it. …

Morrison said this election has created a “new benchmark” for campaigning and appealing to ordinary people in clear message for the so-called Labor machine which has a superior ground game, more volunteers, more money and more “vision”.

Morrison didn’t just beat Labor in this election. He beat the Zeitgeist, the vibe and the emotional appeals while leaving Clive Palmer and the Greens failing to live up to expectations.

Bill Shorten’s political career ended last night but Morrison’s is just beginning.

Labor loses the “unlosable” election in Australia

Labor loses the “unlosable” election in Australia, by David Evans.

The polls were adamant that the left would win, but the right narrowly won.

Winner.

Turns out there were lots of shy voters, just like in Brexit and Trump 2016. Shy voters are those who lean right but are shy to admit it to a pollster because of the opprobrium.

The political class expected Labor to win, but failed to sufficiently consider two side effects of the recent media dominance of the left and their bullying and silencing of opponents:

(1) Shy voters are afraid to admit their real leanings to a pollster, but once inside the safety of the ballot box can express their real opinions. The number of shy voters is soaring, to judge by the consistent disparities between polls and outcomes around the western world in the last five years. Bullying works in public, but people vote alone.

(2) The left only listens to its own echo chamber, both because it dominates the media landscape and because the modern left tends to not listen or acknowledge any opponents but rather shuts them up and demonizes them. Left leaders then overestimate the popularity of the left, causing them to advance policies that scare too many voters. Professional politicians are always trying to calibrate their policies to appeal to the center, but the left’s leaders have consistently misjudged where the center is for the last few years. In this election, perhaps in a an attempt to get a mandate for several more aggressive Labor policies, Bill Shorten put forward policies to increase taxation on oldies, justified spending an unspecified amount on “climate change” on moral grounds, and used divisive class rhetoric that amounted to barely disguised plans to take stuff from their presumed opponents and give it to their supporters. Scary stuff that they would not have attempted if they weren’t so confident of winning.

Will be replaced soon as Labor leader.

Australia just dodged a Whitlamite bullet. This Labor crew threatened to ramp up the size of government and taxation considerably in pursuit of their ideological goals. Not happening now.

In the UK after Brexit and in the US after Trump’s win, the left refused to accept the legitimacy of their loss. They were expecting to win because the polls said they would win, and they were convinced of their righteousness by the media. In the UK the political class has not implemented Brexit as promised, and in the US the left concocted the absurd conspiracy theory that Trump is a Russian agent to paralyze government (and divert attention from their own shenanigans with the spy agencies).

What will the Australian left now do? The election result will come as a nasty shock to them, and they might treat it as illegitimate. It’s hard to see on what grounds, or that they have a leg to stand on, but no one saw the Russian theory coming either.

Expect the usual excuses for the left, such as blaming the loss on Murdoch because News Corp is the only smirch on otherwise wall-to-wall leftist media in Australia. “Our policies were far superior, but sadly mistakes were made in explaining them to the stupid voters.” “Our leader just happened not to have such an engaging personality.” Etc.

Christians can breathe a sigh of relief. Not going to be effectively outlawed in Australia just yet. Too bad for Cardinal Pell and Israel Folau, but at least there won’t be too many others joining them soon.

One sour note tonight for the right was Tony Abbott losing to GetUp! and Zali Stegall, 60 to 40. Huge loss. GetUp! targeted Abbott’s seat and employed nasty and underhand tactics. Now they will be encouraged to repeat that in the future. However, the loss may have had more to do with the great political realignment, as wealthy areas move “left” and poorer areas move right.

Finally, it was a pleasant surprise to turn on ABC radio in the car for my first news about the election, and hear Fran Kelly speaking in subdued and shocked tones. Her emotions are always so transparent, and she is so left. Thus, within seconds and just from hearing her voice, I knew that a massive upset was unfolding.

Sportsbet’s costly error

Sportsbet’s costly error, by Brighette Ryan.

It has been an expensive federal election night for betting agency Sportsbet, which has had to pay out both Labor and Liberal punters.

On Thursday, the agency opted to pay out all bets on Labor, in a strong signal the race was already over. …

But tonight the Coalition clinched the victory, in a move few saw coming. …

The betting agency didn’t shy away from the awkward situation though, instead taking to social media to poke fun at itself.

Who will win the federal election?

Who will win the federal election? By Chris Kenny.

We have been left with major parties going through identity crises. Shorten’s pedestrian campaign has attempted to argue an economically irrational agenda that is the antithesis of Hawke/Keating aspirational reform. Morrison’s energetic campaigning has tried to plot a centrist path back to the Coalition’s core values without upsetting the seething moderates and conservatives in his ranks.

The substance of the election pitches favours Morrison and the Coalition; they have secured the borders, lowered taxes, repaired the budget and kept the nation on a course of steady, if precarious, economic recovery.

Labor has a tax and spend agenda fraught with risk and a climate and energy policy that is so frightening the Labor Leader has stubbornly resisted any attempt to put a figure on its cost to consumers and the economy. For this reason of obfuscation and avoidance, Shorten has lost every week of the campaign. …

Still, such has been the vandalism inflicted on itself by the Coalition over the past few years that despite Labor’s mistakes and Morrison’s flawless advocacy, it is still expected to lose. I said in the first of these weekly assessments that Morrison needed to win every week to have any chance of winning. He has won each week, some more emphatically than others, and while he does have some chance still of pulling off a miracle victory, Labor remains favourite. …

Yet in the end, most of the blame will lie with the Coalition MPs whose job it was to implement their plans while maintaining a path of least resistance for voters. They chose instead to erect a series of mindless obstacles on the road to Coalition support.

Shorten has been clever enough to capitalise on this but as every day of the campaign has progressed, more and more people have become sceptical of his agenda. For Shorten and Labor, 6pm tomorrow night cannot come soon enough.

For the last decade in the West, electoral surprises — movements not picked up in the polls — have all been to the right. Whether this is because of the shy voter in the face of leftist bullying, or whether the polls are biased left, or both, is not clear. The polls are adamant that Labor will win, but close enough that there is some doubt.

Cross about cross-dressing?

Cross about cross-dressing? By David Van Gend.

Where is the parental rage to protect our children from an ideologically creepy Labor-Green government?

Mums and dads across the country look set to elect a party that has vowed to impose the kooky notion of gender fluidity on all of our children, even those seeking refuge in religious schools. …

Labor’s Assistant Equality Minister-in-waiting, Louise Pratt, has expressed her delight at the US initiative of drag queens (male transvestites) visiting primary schools to give kids ‘glamorous, positive, and unabashedly queer role models’. Pratt enthuses, ‘Drag Queen Story Time is a wonderful idea that celebrates diversity.’

And Pratt is well placed as a literary critic, since according to Star Observer, the Senator is ‘an out lesbian (whose) longtime ex-partner is a trans man and activist working in the WA community.’ To diversify further, they co-parent their child with another Labor politician and his male partner, ‘one of whom is the biological father’. …

Labor’s Health Minister-in-waiting, Catherine King, will make it a ‘personal priority’ to outlaw attempts by doctors or counselors to help gender-confused children get comfortable again with their true sex. …

Sad case:

Consider the case of Walt Heyer, a quietly-spoken elderly gentleman whom I met in the USA. For many years Walt passed himself off as a woman before regretting that move and reverting, as best one can with a surgically-damaged body, to his natural male sex.

What led Walt to want to be a woman? He explains the strange form of abuse that messed with a little boy’s sense of self:

My mom and dad didn’t have any idea that when they dropped their son off for a weekend at Grandma’s that she was dressing their boy in girls’ clothes. Grandma told me it was our little secret. My grandmother withheld affirmations of me as a boy, but she lavished delighted praise upon me when I was dressed as a girl. Feelings of euphoria swept over me with her praise, followed later by depression and insecurity about being a boy. Her actions planted the idea in me that I was born in the wrong body. She nourished and encouraged the idea, and over time it took on a life of its own.

A Labor government of sexual revolutionaries?

Australia mourns ‘bloody legend’ Bob Hawke with emotional tributes

Australia mourns ‘bloody legend’ Bob Hawke with emotional tributes, by Alana Calvert. Hawke, PM from 1983 to 1991, died today.

Opposition leader Bill Shorten was among those to pay tribute, saying the labour movement “salutes our greatest son”.

“The Labor Party gives thanks for the life of our longest-serving prime minister and Australians everywhere remember and honour a man who gave so much to the country and people he cared for so deeply,” he said in a statement.

The Australian people loved Bob Hawke because they knew Bob loved them, this was true to the very end.

What a change from today’s leaders of the left. They don’t love Australians, but hate them as racist, sexist deplorables. Too many of today’s political class are globalists, at home with fellow elitists in New York or Paris, or any big international airport really. Something changed.

As Paul Keating said, “The best way to see Darwin is at 35,000ft on the way to Paris.” He also allegedly said that Australia was “the arse end of the world.” Yep, the 1990s was when the left was switching from championing the working class to identity politics. Not just in Australia, but throughout the West.

Philip:

This is terrible timing for the Libs. Sentimentality, via the massed violins of the ABC, will see Shorten as our next PM.

hat-tip Philip Barton

WakeUp to GetUp: Shorten will be beholden to “global network of radical left wing activists”

WakeUp to GetUp: Shorten will be beholden to “global network of radical left wing activists”, by Joanne Nova.

This election has been run on the lowest base primal tactics in Australian history. National policy has become a cult-like hate campaign. Which moderate centrist politician do we despise the most?

The Alinsky-ite targeted smear campaign doesn’t attack a party, it isolates individuals, reducing voting to Good person: Bad person. The marked men and sole woman are those who question any part of the permitted agenda, especially on climate change. GetUp trashes their reputations with raining hate, manufactured scorn and lies that get cynically get “retracted” but never undone.

GetUp also target the young and uninformed — using children as political activists. It only works because most of the Australian media repeats the toxic lines, and edits out the most informed views of half the electorate to be aired and debated. To be sure the ABC will seek out the odd conservative truckie or farmer (and the odder the better), but they won’t ask Australians with doctorates who disagree with their own political ideals. …

Prime Skeptic Targets in the Liberal-National coalition: NSW, Tony Abbott, Craig Kelly. QLD – Keith Pitt, George Christian and Ken O’Dowd (all Nationals)  VICTORIA – Kevin Andrews.  WA – Andrew Hastie.

Gerard Benedet and Advance Australia are taking GetUp on.

I’m sharing in the spirit of filling the hole that the billion dollar national broadcaster won’t:

Tony Abbott In War For The Seat That Most Decides Our Future

Tony Abbott In War For The Seat That Most Decides Our Future, by Andrew Bolt.

No wonder Tony Abbott feels hunted. The former prime minister is under savage attack because he holds the most important seat in this election.

Tony Abbott

So much will change if Abbott loses Warringah on Saturday to global-warming extremist Zali Steggall, the former skiing champion.

Global warming will become our dominant religion, the power of militant activists will soar, Liberal conservatives will be cowed and, given the swing needed, the Liberals will have lost the election.

The country will change. The Liberals will change.

Two issues will decide the election

Two issues will decide the election, by Robert Gottliebsen.

As we go to the polls two issues will decide the election — the retirement and pensioners tax (RPT) and the dramatic rise in community apprehension about climate.

The retirement and pensioners tax:

As a result of RPT — levied via a ban on cash franking credits — a staggering 1.1 million elderly Australians are set to lose on average $4000 each year. It’s money few of them can afford.

Add that to higher capital gains taxes and negative gearing and anger in the older age groups of our community is white hot. And when I comment on the subject the reader response is huge. …

However only a portion of Australia’s 1.l million elderly people set to be hit have any concept that they are being accused in the 2019 election campaign of being part of a tax system that “dudded” the younger generation.

In fact, many of them still think they are “doing the right thing” by saving for their retirement.

If the ALP wins the election and gains Senate approval for its plan to make them pay the retirement and pensioners tax, they will all then realise that the younger community believes that the older generation were part of a system that “dudded” the younger generation.

They must pay what is arguably a $4000 average fine for the rest of their lives—-or at least until they quit the self-managed funds and go onto the government pensions. …

Global warming:

But the reader response is just as big when I discuss climate change …

The level of belief in imminent climate change and the need to act is back to the level of the 2007 federal election — the election when Kevin Rudd defeated John Howard in a landslide. The level of belief declined in 2009 and 2010 but has since steadily recovered.

Nation in denial on religious revolution

Nation in denial on religious revolution, by Paul Kelly.

Religious freedom is the missing element in this election yet it is a pivotal issue. The certainty, post-election, is that new laws will be put by the incoming government with the potential to alter fundamentally the discretion enjoyed by religion in this country. These laws will vary dramatically depending on whether it is a Morrison or Shorten government.

Religious schools have effectively been put on notice by Labor. For Labor, LGBTI rights will be a priority issue if it forms government. …

Labor gets infuriated when confronted by the consequences of its policies and the winding back of religious freedom, which it proposes yet keeps trying to deny. The previous parliament broke amid an embittered deadlock; it was unable to agree on new laws to protect LGBTI students at religious schools yet ensure such schools retained the right to pursue their mission of religious education.

This is not just a lawyers’ technical dispute about how to reconcile competing interests between religious freedom and LGBTI rights. It is a Liberal-Labor conflict over values, interests and religion. This is the documented reality despite the self-interested denials often from both sides.

The revelatory point last year came when Labor refused to accept a government amendment to its bill saying it was not unlawful to engage in teaching activity if that activity “(a) is in good faith in accordance with the doctrines, tenets, beliefs or teachings of a particular religion or creed; and (b) is done by, or with the authority of, an educational institution that is conducted in accordance with those doctrines, tenets, beliefs or teachings”. …

Attorney-General Porter said: “Labor’s bill completely removes the ability of religious educational institutions to maintain their ethos through what they teach and the rules of conduct they impose on students. This is because Labor’s bill would, for the first time, expose religious schools to litigation under the Sex Discrimination Act merely because they impose reasonable rules, such as requiring students to attend chapel.”