Deficits for the next 40 years — Australian Government

Deficits for the next 40 years — Australian Government. By Matthew Cranston in The Australian.

Jim Chalmers has assured Australians that personal income tax cuts are still part of his economic plans, despite revelations the country faces 40 years of budget deficits, ballooning debt, and an economy that will remain largely reliant on migration. …

Awesome job, Jim.

His second Intergenerational Report … pushes migration and multiculturalism as key drivers of economic growth through to 2066, and puts artificial intelligence at the centre of future productivity strategies

Reality will be even worse:

Economists and industry bodies warned the report relied upon unrealistically rosy assumptions of productivity and fiscal discipline.

Now it’s AI that is going to make us rich? After broadband (NBN), net zero, renewable power, and green hydrogen all failed? All our competitors will also adopt AI, many faster than us, so our relative position will slip.

The Best and Shortest Economics Lesson

The Best and Shortest Economics Lesson. By Handre.

1.Humans act. Every choice a person makes traces back to an incentive, a trade-off, a cost weighed against a benefit. Remove the incentive and the action stops. Distort the incentive and the action warps.

Tax income at 90% and watch producers stop producing. Subsidize failure and watch failure multiply. The behavior follows the reward structure, always.

2.Value exists only in the mind of the person choosing. A glass of water is worth nothing to a drowning man and everything to a man dying of thirst. No central authority can calculate this, because it changes with every individual and every circumstance.

Nothing has value in itself, only the degree to which humans choose to value it. Diamonds and even gold only carry value because humans decided they do.

3. Money does not come from a government decree. It emerged spontaneously when traders needed something durable, divisible, and widely accepted to escape the limitations of direct barter. Gold won that competition across centuries and across dozens of independent civilizations because the market, not a ministry, chose it.

Fiat currency is the state hijacking that evolved institution and replacing it with paper backed by nothing but a legal threat. Every central bank on earth operates on this model right now.

4. Wealth does not fall from the sky. A farmer who eats his entire harvest produces nothing next season. The farmer who saves seed, plants it, and specializes in what he grows best accumulates a surplus. That surplus is capital. Capital funds everything that comes after.

Consumption without prior production is just burning down the furniture for warmth. Every welfare state eventually reaches this point.

5. Strip private property rights and production collapses. A farmer will work his own land until midnight. That same farmer, working collective land, stops at noon. The Soviet Union ran this experiment across seventy years and killed tens of millions, proving the point.

When you cannot own the outcome, you do not produce the outcome.

6. Voluntary trade generates wealth from nothing but mutual preference. When you pay twelve dollars for a meal, you value the meal above twelve dollars; the restaurant values twelve dollars above the meal. Both parties walk away wealthier in real terms. No politician, no regulator, no bureaucrat added anything.

Protectionism destroys this. The 2018 US steel tariffs raised steel prices for American manufacturers, killed more jobs in steel-consuming industries than existed in steel production itself, and transferred wealth from productive firms to a protected few. …

7. Inflation is a tax. Every dollar the Federal Reserve creates without corresponding production dilutes every dollar you already hold. The new money flows first to the government and its contractors, who spend it at current prices. By the time it reaches you, prices have already risen.

The US M2 money supply grew from roughly 15 trillion dollars in January 2020 to over 21 trillion by early 2022. Consumer prices followed. Your savings took the loss.

8. Prices carry information. A price spike tells producers to produce more and tells consumers to use less. It coordinates millions of strangers without a single central command. Interfere with that signal and the coordination breaks.

Rent control in New York City is the cleanest example. Cap rents below market and landlords stop maintaining buildings, stop building new ones, and convert units to other uses. The people rent control was supposed to help pay the price through collapsing supply.

9. Interest rates are the price of capital over time. When the Federal Reserve pushed rates to near zero between 2008 and 2022, it told every investor that capital was nearly free. Businesses built projects that only made sense at zero percent. When rates normalized, the projects failed. The 2022 collapse of the US tech sector and the crypto market were not random events. They were the correction of a decade of artificially cheap capital.

The business cycle is not a mystery of capitalism. Central banks manufacture it.

10. Bureaucrats face no profit and loss. A businessman who misallocates capital goes bankrupt. A bureaucrat who misallocates capital writes a report requesting more funding. The feedback loop that disciplines markets simply does not exist inside a government agency.

The US Department of Education has spent over a trillion dollars since 1980. Literacy rates have not improved. No one at the department has been bankrupted by this outcome.

11. Every producer inside a local market holds knowledge that no bureaucrat in a capital city can replicate. A wheat farmer in Kansas tracks soil moisture, futures prices, local equipment costs, his specific buyer relationships, and a hundred other variables simultaneously. That knowledge lives in the price he sets.

Friedrich Hayek called this tacit knowledge in 1945. The Soviet central planners ignored him and spent fifty years proving him correct, producing chronic shortages of goods that private markets coordinate effortlessly. No model, no algorithm, and no committee can compress what millions of independent actors know into a single plan.

12. Every government intervention produces effects you see and effects you don’t. You see the road the state builds. You don’t see the factory the tax dollars never funded, the job that never existed, the innovation that never happened because capital was extracted at gunpoint and redirected by bureaucrats with no skin in the game.

Take the 2009 Cash for Clunkers program. Congress destroyed 690,000 working cars, handed dealers a short-term spike, and you saw the sales numbers. The used car market was stripped of affordable inventory, pricing working-class buyers out for years afterward.

13. Prices, supply chains, and language itself coordinate millions of strangers without any central planner issuing a single command. That coordination is spontaneous order: complex, functional patterns that emerge from individuals pursuing their own goals under rules they did not collectively design. No committee holds the dispersed local knowledge required to replicate what voluntary exchange produces every second.

Watch how English evolved. No king designed its grammar. Millions of speakers across centuries adopted words and structures that worked, dropped ones that didn’t, and produced a language richer than any bureaucrat could have engineered. Central planners who believe they can replicate that process with price controls or production quotas destroy the feedback mechanism that generates the order in the first place.

The above is Austrian economics, which has been out of favor with governments and banks for nearly a century now.

Instead, today we have Keynesianism, which is just an elaborate excuse for governments and banks to lower interest rates, thereby generating for themselves more spending power and income. Keynesianism is an ideology invented for the great depression of the 1930s, to stop more banks going bust (their assets were mainly bonds, and bond prices go higher when interest rates go lower).

The generation of economists before Keynes, the classical economists, thought Keynes was a crackpot. But government and banks only give plum economist jobs to followers of Keynes, which filters the profession, first at universities and then everywhere. By 1970 nearly all economists were Keynesians.

So, here we are in the 2020s, with the world awash in debt, but no longer able to keep interest rates artificially low without inflation taking off. Interest rates cannot be raised now, because everyone would go bust. Japan must spend 100% of its tax income on interest payments if rates get to 7%, the US at 14%. In 1980, it took 20% interest rates to halt inflation. How many people on mortgages can afford the 18% interest rates of Australia in 1989?

In all of human history, the average lifetime of a fiat currency is about two generations (~50 years). Our current money technically began in 1971, when the last link to something real was cut. So, we’re about on the usual schedule.

The left looks for heretics and the right looks for converts

The left looks for heretics and the right looks for converts. By Glenn Reynolds.

As the old saying has it, the left looks for heretics and the right looks for converts, and both find what they’re looking for.

The effect is no doubt subliminal, but people who treat you like crap are, over time, less persuasive than people who don’t. If people on the Left are so unhappy about how many former allies are changing their views, perhaps they should examine how those allies are treated.

Newspoll: Two thirds of Australians want less immigration, only 4 per cent want more immigration

Newspoll: Two thirds of Australians want less immigration, only 4 per cent want more immigration. By Geoff Chambers in The Australian.

Two-thirds of Australians, including 44 per cent of Labor voters, want fewer immigrants allowed into Australia, according to an exclusive Newspoll that reveals ongoing concerns in the electorate about high levels of immigration. …

37 per cent of voters wanted a lot fewer immigrants than now and 29 per cent wanted fewer immigrants than now. …

4 per cent wanted more immigrants than now and 2 per cent wanted a lot more immigrants than now.

Western governments are refusing to give an inch on mass migration

Western governments are refusing to give an inch on mass migration. By Fugitive Caesar.

Foreign crime is fueling a global right-wing nationalist movement and the return of tribal white identity politics in every country suffering under the adverse consequences of cheap foreign labor.

Leftist governments are risking everything on this one single goal. They’re wrecking their economies. They’re bankrupting senior pensions. They’re unleashing rape and murder onto innocent women. They’re risking civil war.

And yet, the horror continues.

There is a global Leftist consensus that if the nonwhite population can reach some critical threshold of 60% or 70% or 80% of a nation’s numbers, then Leftists will be able to permanently consolidate and entrench power.

This is the great evil of our time. This moral crusade has inflicted crushing poverty, despair, and violent atrocities upon innocent citizens and vulnerable children.

Only in America has President Trump driven them back and reversed the tide. But even in America, every Democrat state is bitterly resisting handing over their voter fraud rolls, and fighting against the federal government’s efforts to audit welfare, medical fraud.

Eastern Europe too:

 

John Carter:

Permanently solving this will require constitutional changes to the nature of citizenship. …

We need to adapt the Athenian citizenship model. Something like, naturalization takes three generations of continuous residency, ideally with intermarriage. That can’t just be an ordinary law, it has to be built into the constitution, so that it’s almost impossible to change.

 

 

Commenters:

Why would they give an inch? They know that they only need to win one more election. …

It’s their entire platform. Subversion is their only way to keep their corruption going. …

It is willful destruction of the western world and will hopefully be seen as such by almost everyone, quickly. It is worldwide and it is the elites vs the citizens.

 

 

Only useful idiots want open border immigration, most people are against it, but it doesn’t matter. That is what we are getting. There is no choice, only the illusion of choice.

The upcoming US midterms are going to be a shitshow of fraud and corruption. The left in the United States seem to quickly be agreeing that the fall of the US is the best path forward. I’m sure it’s the same for leftists elsewhere in the West. They are starting to lose, and their path forward is “anyone but the right, they are evil.” …

The leftist elites encouraging mass migration seem not to realize that if they actually succeeded with their goal , the very people they imported would remove them from power very quickly! Migrants have no desire to be ruled by anyone outside their ethnicity. …

There are still white liberals in South Africa. They will never admit the fallacy of their world view even as everything collapses around them. If anything they will feel justified if things go kinetic so they can say “we were right about the evils of Whiteness”.

 

Angela Merkel was the true extremist of our age. History will judge hyperliberals as the vandals who dissolved our borders

Angela Merkel was the true extremist of our age. History will judge hyperliberals as the vandals who dissolved our borders. By Matthew Syed in The Times.

If extremism is defined as acting out of proportion with context, history or consent, I suggest Merkel’s tenure represented the high point of postwar European extremism.

It was not just that she opened the door in 2015 to almost a million unvetted, largely male asylum seekers, but did so knowing perfectly well what the consequences would be. We know this because she alluded to many at the time of her (again, widely acclaimed) “Wir schaffen das” (“we can do this”) speech. She knew it would impose ruinous fiscal cost on the German people but she went ahead anyway, prioritising the projection of her own virtue above the interests of her voters.

 

Merkel smiles for dominant immigrant

The famous photos at the birth of Islamo-leftism

 

She knew it would add huge pressure to schools with tens of thousands of extra pupils needing German-as-second-language teaching in an already short-staffed system, not to mention adding huge tension to a tight housing market. She knew this would shaft her neighbours as migrants moved westwards, making a mockery of Schengen and adding to the drumbeat for Brexit. She must also have surely known there would be a spike in crime; rape and sexual assaults rose by 13 per cent in 2016 and asylum seekers were overrepresented sixfold in the numbers. On New Year’s Eve in 2015 more than 500 sexual offences were recorded in Cologne on a single night.

Coming up: the “rabid right”:

You’ll doubtless have noted the increasingly Orwellian terminology applied to parties such as the AfD, Reform and the like. It started with “far” right, then moved to “hard” right, then “radical” right. Soon they will be labelled the “rabid right” …

Who are the extremists here?

Who are the extremists here? Is it the people who want to rip up a chronically out of date legal framework or “moderates” who follow in the footsteps of Mutti by waving them in?

My sense is that the leaders of the various uniparties believed their legacies would be defined by the tenets of wokeism, seeing this ideology not as a passing cultural spasm but a new moral paradigm. This is why we got trans ideology (was this not extremist?), net zero zealotry (was this not extremist, at least in its implementation?) and more.

It is also why I believe history will judge the likes of Cameron, Johnson, Trudeau, Hollande, Macron and von der Leyen as the most disastrous in postwar history since they undermined both the concept of the nation state and the alliance that defends our version of it.

Henrik Dahl points out the consequences of a lying media that omits anything that does not support a leftist point of view:

In Merkel’s own country, Germany, the political centre is collapsing. Nationwide opinion polls suggest that the three establishment parties that rebuilt Germany after the Second World War now command the support of only around a third of the electorate between them.

Nor is Germany the only country where the political centre is collapsing. The same is happening in France [and all western countries]

The extraordinary denial of reality that, in my assessment, Merkel allowed to take hold when it came to immigrants’ responsibility for antisemitism, violence against women, terrorism and gang crime.

Coming from Denmark, where we have reliable statistics on all these matters, I find it frankly shocking to listen to the nonsense coming from Germany’s political elite.

But I would also trace back to Merkel the rise of what is often called “Islamo-leftism” — a tendency that has recently gained ground in Sweden and is also growing in Germany. In Sweden, polls have indicated that 85 per cent of Muslim voters support parties to the left of centre, with almost one in five supporting the Left Party, Vänsterpartiet — a party tainted by antisemitism and the glorification of terrorism. I see no compelling reason to assume that the pattern in Germany is fundamentally different.

My argument, then, is that it is not only the rise in support for the AfD that can be traced back to Merkel. The same applies to the growing support for parties on the German left that promote the political and religious views of a significant proportion of the people, Merkel invited to Germany. Not least on the Gaza question.

Pigs fly:

We need to discuss this openly and honestly. Otherwise, we cannot understand why the political centre is collapsing in so many countries today.

Commenters:

Ronald Regan said 40 years ago something along the line of “when fascism return to the west it will be in the form of hyperliberalism”.

First the state changes the meaning of a word. Then it punishes those who remember what it meant.

First the state changes the meaning of a word. Then it punishes those who remember what it meant. By Chris Uhlmann in The Australian.

The moment it really went south:

If there was a moment that clarified what was wrong with politics as usual in Australia, it was the Bondi Beach massacre.

In the aftermath of that December day, some of the country’s leadership condemned antisemitism while shrinking from naming the radical Islamist ideology behind the attack. Others declared that this atrocity had nothing to do with religion. This defied logic. The killers were Muslims, the targets were Jews. This crime had everything to do with religion.

People watched as the great and the good tortured language and logic to declare that we should not accept the evidence of our own eyes. It was emblematic of a ruling class that believed it determined what was true. …

Migration woes:

We woke up in a foreign land and wondered how we got there. It heightened existing reservations about migration and the flaws of multiculturalism.

Boiled down to its basics, the widespread unease with migration is economic and emotional: too many people too fast, and too many of the wrong kind of people.

Expressing even the first half of that fear often invites retribution, but the second is unsay­able because it runs to race and religion. Everyone knows they will be branded racist if they wonder aloud whether some minority beliefs are incompatible with living in harmony with the majority.

Everyone also knows the only person in Australia’s political atmosphere prepared to say the unsayable is Pauline Hanson. …

Trans lies:

Part of the problem is that the word progress has been hijacked by weirdos … So rack this up as progress: the law has declared that biology is bunk and opened the door to the colonisation of women’s spaces by men. …

In the disturbingly named Giggle v Tickle case, Australia’s Sex Discrimination Commissioner intervened on the side of the trans woman to argue that sex was not settled at birth, was not binary and could change.  …

Yet this lie is now law. People will be compelled to comply with it and face legal action if they don’t. Pause on that and consider its implications. First the state changes the meaning of a word. Then it punishes those who remember what it meant. ..

The religious bureaucracy in the Middle Ages was ended by hundreds of peasants revolts.

Australia has built an official secular morality, complete with its own clergy and courts. Its priests do not wear collars. They chair commissions, draft codes of conduct and sit on corporate boards. They discover new rights, declare new offences and summon heretics to the star chamber. The catechism changes with the era. The method does not. The old church named sins, demanded confession and prescribed penance. Its modern counterpart calls the sins harm, the confession conciliation and the penance training.

The power goes to their heads, even as they succumb to competitive virtue-signaling.

And the idea that global warming is mainly due to our carbon dioxide? Utter rubbish. It’s been warming since 1650, a fact that was in all the climate textbooks and the IPCC’s First Assessment Report in 1990. But that heresy was disappeared by 2000, replaced by their big lie, the fraudulent hockey stick.

How very Stalin of you

How very Stalin of you. By Brendan O’Neill at spiked.

Every day is an uphill struggle to not feel ashamed of being Irish. Watching the land of Swift, Joyce and Wilde become the land of Kneecap, Sally Rooney and infinity tits in keffiyehs would shatter even the hardest Irish heart. This week has been especially challenging. Dublin’s insufferably smug media class has risen up like a racket of demented banshees against — wait for it — Ed Sheeran.

His crime? He refuses to hate the Jewish State as ferally and rabidly as they do.

Write songs Ed, but don’t dare to have your own opinions!

 

The Sheeranphobia that has swept the Emerald Isle is insane. Five minutes ago Sheeran was being celebrated in Ireland as the ‘culturally Irish’ penner of popular if vanilla love songs. Now he’s damned as a ‘gutless coward’ and an ‘extreme disappointment’ who should ‘never feel welcome in Ireland again’. Got that? Unless you bow and scrape before the Palestine cult and gorge on all its filthy falsehoods about Israel, Ireland will blacklist you. McCarthyism in a tricolour balaclava. …

And coming from the same people who say the Eritrean fella who arrived five minutes ago and who now aggressively panhandles outside the GPO is welcome and you’re racist if you say otherwise. …

It all springs from the Macklemore scandal. The irritant rapper famous for his 14-year-old song ‘Thrift Shop’ and his Pavlovian wails of ‘Free Palestine’ was dropped from Sheeran’s US tour after stadium bosses balked at his Israel-bashing. All of Sheeran’s other support acts and even his house band — Irish group Beoga — walked out in solidarity with Macklemore.

Sheeran’s statement saying he hates the ‘suffering’ on ‘both sides’ in the Israel-Gaza war made things worse. Doesn’t he know that sympathy for the Jews who were raped and butchered by the Islamofascists of Hamas is tantamount to a thoughtcrime in virtuous circles? Educate yourself, Ed. …

How very Stalin of you:

It’s genuinely mad. ‘Ireland disowns Ed Sheeran over Macklemore stance’, as a headline in Newsweek summed it up. Disowns! The Irish radio station Classic Hits Radio has even removed Sheeran’s songs from its playlists for the ‘foreseeable future’. Unpersoning a musician for failing to parrot political orthodoxies? …

Neutrality not allowed:

So there you have it:… You can’t choose to be apolitical about the Middle East.

The Sheeran scandal really has exposed what a one-eyed, hateful and authoritarian cult Palestinianism has become. And Ireland has been conquered by it.

Just as well left didn’t adopt that position on gays. (Tou can merely approve of gays, you don’t have to participate!)

Islam is a state, not just a religion

Islam is a state, not just a religion. By Dan Burmawi, Bestselling Author of ‘Islam, Israel and the West’.

Islam has a population: the ummah. It has a constitution: Sharia. It has courts, criminal law, family law, taxation, rules for minorities, doctrines of war and peace, and a foreign-policy framework governing relations between the land of Islam and the lands outside it.

The ummah is not tied to Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, or any other modern country. It crosses all of them.

Islam’s population “Muslims” belong to one political-religious community.

That is fundamentally different from Buddhism.

A Buddhist American may practice Buddhism faithfully, but Buddhism does not give him a second universal political order with its own law, sovereignty, territorial doctrine, and theory of government.

Islam does.

This is why reducing Islam to “just another religion” misses the point.

Muslim officeholders are literally citizens of another existing country, and their loyalties can never be American first, because the two projects are contradictory.

And the penalty for leaving Islam is death.

Where the western left is heading

Where the western left is heading. By Brianna Lyman at The Federalist.

There are now just 10 Democrats of more than 250 in Congress who have signed on to a coalition that opposes rising socialism and communism. As part of their “Promise to America,” the 10 Democrats declare (among other things): “We are capitalist, not socialist,” “We want safety, not lawlessness,” “We are proud, not ashamed of America.” That not all Democrats signed on to that in and of itself is concerning. …

Nearly 60 percent of Democrats support the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), according to a recent Quinnipiac University poll. …

The DSA is far, far left:

The DSA released a new platform in June that explicitly called for drafting “a new constitution, and creat[ing] a democratic socialist republic.” The organization also called for abolishing the Electoral College, as well as “replac[ing] the President and Supreme Court with an executive and judiciary chosen by and subordinate to Congress.”

The DSA is also pushing to “demilitarize police departments, disempower police unions, and redirect funding to public services as steps toward fully abolishing the police and prison system.” The socialists want to abolish ICE, “legalize migration, grant amnesty for all immigrants regardless of status, provide a path to citizenship for all permanent residents, and end visa caps and quotas.” …

The DSA openly pushes for what mainstream Democrats have been advancing gradually with language that is a bit more polished: destroying immigration enforcement and borders, dismantling police and prisons, and abolishing the Constitution as we know it.

Don’t be fooled by their language:

Democrats can keep pretending they are ‘moderate’ to win general elections, but moderation requires more than just saying the word over and over again.

Trends in the US usually appear in Australia after about 5 – 10 years.