Western governments are refusing to give an inch on mass migration

Western governments are refusing to give an inch on mass migration. By Fugitive Caesar.

Foreign crime is fueling a global right-wing nationalist movement and the return of tribal white identity politics in every country suffering under the adverse consequences of cheap foreign labor.

Leftist governments are risking everything on this one single goal. They’re wrecking their economies. They’re bankrupting senior pensions. They’re unleashing rape and murder onto innocent women. They’re risking civil war.

And yet, the horror continues.

There is a global Leftist consensus that if the nonwhite population can reach some critical threshold of 60% or 70% or 80% of a nation’s numbers, then Leftists will be able to permanently consolidate and entrench power.

This is the great evil of our time. This moral crusade has inflicted crushing poverty, despair, and violent atrocities upon innocent citizens and vulnerable children.

Only in America has President Trump driven them back and reversed the tide. But even in America, every Democrat state is bitterly resisting handing over their voter fraud rolls, and fighting against the federal government’s efforts to audit welfare, medical fraud.

Eastern Europe too:

 

John Carter:

Permanently solving this will require constitutional changes to the nature of citizenship. …

We need to adapt the Athenian citizenship model. Something like, naturalization takes three generations of continuous residency, ideally with intermarriage. That can’t just be an ordinary law, it has to be built into the constitution, so that it’s almost impossible to change.

 

 

Commenters:

Why would they give an inch? They know that they only need to win one more election. …

It’s their entire platform. Subversion is their only way to keep their corruption going. …

It is willful destruction of the western world and will hopefully be seen as such by almost everyone, quickly. It is worldwide and it is the elites vs the citizens.

 

 

Only useful idiots want open border immigration, most people are against it, but it doesn’t matter. That is what we are getting. There is no choice, only the illusion of choice.

The upcoming US midterms are going to be a shitshow of fraud and corruption. The left in the United States seem to quickly be agreeing that the fall of the US is the best path forward. I’m sure it’s the same for leftists elsewhere in the West. They are starting to lose, and their path forward is “anyone but the right, they are evil.” …

The leftist elites encouraging mass migration seem not to realize that if they actually succeeded with their goal , the very people they imported would remove them from power very quickly! Migrants have no desire to be ruled by anyone outside their ethnicity. …

There are still white liberals in South Africa. They will never admit the fallacy of their world view even as everything collapses around them. If anything they will feel justified if things go kinetic so they can say “we were right about the evils of Whiteness”.

 

Angela Merkel was the true extremist of our age. History will judge hyperliberals as the vandals who dissolved our borders

Angela Merkel was the true extremist of our age. History will judge hyperliberals as the vandals who dissolved our borders. By Matthew Syed in The Times.

If extremism is defined as acting out of proportion with context, history or consent, I suggest Merkel’s tenure represented the high point of postwar European extremism.

It was not just that she opened the door in 2015 to almost a million unvetted, largely male asylum seekers, but did so knowing perfectly well what the consequences would be. We know this because she alluded to many at the time of her (again, widely acclaimed) “Wir schaffen das” (“we can do this”) speech. She knew it would impose ruinous fiscal cost on the German people but she went ahead anyway, prioritising the projection of her own virtue above the interests of her voters.

 

Merkel smiles for dominant immigrant

The famous photos at the birth of Islamo-leftism

 

She knew it would add huge pressure to schools with tens of thousands of extra pupils needing German-as-second-language teaching in an already short-staffed system, not to mention adding huge tension to a tight housing market. She knew this would shaft her neighbours as migrants moved westwards, making a mockery of Schengen and adding to the drumbeat for Brexit. She must also have surely known there would be a spike in crime; rape and sexual assaults rose by 13 per cent in 2016 and asylum seekers were overrepresented sixfold in the numbers. On New Year’s Eve in 2015 more than 500 sexual offences were recorded in Cologne on a single night.

Coming up: the “rabid right”:

You’ll doubtless have noted the increasingly Orwellian terminology applied to parties such as the AfD, Reform and the like. It started with “far” right, then moved to “hard” right, then “radical” right. Soon they will be labelled the “rabid right” …

Who are the extremists here?

Who are the extremists here? Is it the people who want to rip up a chronically out of date legal framework or “moderates” who follow in the footsteps of Mutti by waving them in?

My sense is that the leaders of the various uniparties believed their legacies would be defined by the tenets of wokeism, seeing this ideology not as a passing cultural spasm but a new moral paradigm. This is why we got trans ideology (was this not extremist?), net zero zealotry (was this not extremist, at least in its implementation?) and more.

It is also why I believe history will judge the likes of Cameron, Johnson, Trudeau, Hollande, Macron and von der Leyen as the most disastrous in postwar history since they undermined both the concept of the nation state and the alliance that defends our version of it.

Henrik Dahl points out the consequences of a lying media that omits anything that does not support a leftist point of view:

In Merkel’s own country, Germany, the political centre is collapsing. Nationwide opinion polls suggest that the three establishment parties that rebuilt Germany after the Second World War now command the support of only around a third of the electorate between them.

Nor is Germany the only country where the political centre is collapsing. The same is happening in France [and all western countries]

The extraordinary denial of reality that, in my assessment, Merkel allowed to take hold when it came to immigrants’ responsibility for antisemitism, violence against women, terrorism and gang crime.

Coming from Denmark, where we have reliable statistics on all these matters, I find it frankly shocking to listen to the nonsense coming from Germany’s political elite.

But I would also trace back to Merkel the rise of what is often called “Islamo-leftism” — a tendency that has recently gained ground in Sweden and is also growing in Germany. In Sweden, polls have indicated that 85 per cent of Muslim voters support parties to the left of centre, with almost one in five supporting the Left Party, Vänsterpartiet — a party tainted by antisemitism and the glorification of terrorism. I see no compelling reason to assume that the pattern in Germany is fundamentally different.

My argument, then, is that it is not only the rise in support for the AfD that can be traced back to Merkel. The same applies to the growing support for parties on the German left that promote the political and religious views of a significant proportion of the people, Merkel invited to Germany. Not least on the Gaza question.

Pigs fly:

We need to discuss this openly and honestly. Otherwise, we cannot understand why the political centre is collapsing in so many countries today.

Commenters:

Ronald Regan said 40 years ago something along the line of “when fascism return to the west it will be in the form of hyperliberalism”.

First the state changes the meaning of a word. Then it punishes those who remember what it meant.

First the state changes the meaning of a word. Then it punishes those who remember what it meant. By Chris Uhlmann in The Australian.

The moment it really went south:

If there was a moment that clarified what was wrong with politics as usual in Australia, it was the Bondi Beach massacre.

In the aftermath of that December day, some of the country’s leadership condemned antisemitism while shrinking from naming the radical Islamist ideology behind the attack. Others declared that this atrocity had nothing to do with religion. This defied logic. The killers were Muslims, the targets were Jews. This crime had everything to do with religion.

People watched as the great and the good tortured language and logic to declare that we should not accept the evidence of our own eyes. It was emblematic of a ruling class that believed it determined what was true. …

Migration woes:

We woke up in a foreign land and wondered how we got there. It heightened existing reservations about migration and the flaws of multiculturalism.

Boiled down to its basics, the widespread unease with migration is economic and emotional: too many people too fast, and too many of the wrong kind of people.

Expressing even the first half of that fear often invites retribution, but the second is unsay­able because it runs to race and religion. Everyone knows they will be branded racist if they wonder aloud whether some minority beliefs are incompatible with living in harmony with the majority.

Everyone also knows the only person in Australia’s political atmosphere prepared to say the unsayable is Pauline Hanson. …

Trans lies:

Part of the problem is that the word progress has been hijacked by weirdos … So rack this up as progress: the law has declared that biology is bunk and opened the door to the colonisation of women’s spaces by men. …

In the disturbingly named Giggle v Tickle case, Australia’s Sex Discrimination Commissioner intervened on the side of the trans woman to argue that sex was not settled at birth, was not binary and could change.  …

Yet this lie is now law. People will be compelled to comply with it and face legal action if they don’t. Pause on that and consider its implications. First the state changes the meaning of a word. Then it punishes those who remember what it meant. ..

The religious bureaucracy in the Middle Ages was ended by hundreds of peasants revolts.

Australia has built an official secular morality, complete with its own clergy and courts. Its priests do not wear collars. They chair commissions, draft codes of conduct and sit on corporate boards. They discover new rights, declare new offences and summon heretics to the star chamber. The catechism changes with the era. The method does not. The old church named sins, demanded confession and prescribed penance. Its modern counterpart calls the sins harm, the confession conciliation and the penance training.

The power goes to their heads, even as they succumb to competitive virtue-signaling.

And the idea that global warming is mainly due to our carbon dioxide? Utter rubbish. It’s been warming since 1650, a fact that was in all the climate textbooks and the IPCC’s First Assessment Report in 1990. But that heresy was disappeared by 2000, replaced by their big lie, the fraudulent hockey stick.

How very Stalin of you

How very Stalin of you. By Brendan O’Neill at spiked.

Every day is an uphill struggle to not feel ashamed of being Irish. Watching the land of Swift, Joyce and Wilde become the land of Kneecap, Sally Rooney and infinity tits in keffiyehs would shatter even the hardest Irish heart. This week has been especially challenging. Dublin’s insufferably smug media class has risen up like a racket of demented banshees against — wait for it — Ed Sheeran.

His crime? He refuses to hate the Jewish State as ferally and rabidly as they do.

Write songs Ed, but don’t dare to have your own opinions!

 

The Sheeranphobia that has swept the Emerald Isle is insane. Five minutes ago Sheeran was being celebrated in Ireland as the ‘culturally Irish’ penner of popular if vanilla love songs. Now he’s damned as a ‘gutless coward’ and an ‘extreme disappointment’ who should ‘never feel welcome in Ireland again’. Got that? Unless you bow and scrape before the Palestine cult and gorge on all its filthy falsehoods about Israel, Ireland will blacklist you. McCarthyism in a tricolour balaclava. …

And coming from the same people who say the Eritrean fella who arrived five minutes ago and who now aggressively panhandles outside the GPO is welcome and you’re racist if you say otherwise. …

It all springs from the Macklemore scandal. The irritant rapper famous for his 14-year-old song ‘Thrift Shop’ and his Pavlovian wails of ‘Free Palestine’ was dropped from Sheeran’s US tour after stadium bosses balked at his Israel-bashing. All of Sheeran’s other support acts and even his house band — Irish group Beoga — walked out in solidarity with Macklemore.

Sheeran’s statement saying he hates the ‘suffering’ on ‘both sides’ in the Israel-Gaza war made things worse. Doesn’t he know that sympathy for the Jews who were raped and butchered by the Islamofascists of Hamas is tantamount to a thoughtcrime in virtuous circles? Educate yourself, Ed. …

How very Stalin of you:

It’s genuinely mad. ‘Ireland disowns Ed Sheeran over Macklemore stance’, as a headline in Newsweek summed it up. Disowns! The Irish radio station Classic Hits Radio has even removed Sheeran’s songs from its playlists for the ‘foreseeable future’. Unpersoning a musician for failing to parrot political orthodoxies? …

Neutrality not allowed:

So there you have it:… You can’t choose to be apolitical about the Middle East.

The Sheeran scandal really has exposed what a one-eyed, hateful and authoritarian cult Palestinianism has become. And Ireland has been conquered by it.

Just as well left didn’t adopt that position on gays. (Tou can merely approve of gays, you don’t have to participate!)

Islam is a state, not just a religion

Islam is a state, not just a religion. By Dan Burmawi, Bestselling Author of ‘Islam, Israel and the West’.

Islam has a population: the ummah. It has a constitution: Sharia. It has courts, criminal law, family law, taxation, rules for minorities, doctrines of war and peace, and a foreign-policy framework governing relations between the land of Islam and the lands outside it.

The ummah is not tied to Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, or any other modern country. It crosses all of them.

Islam’s population “Muslims” belong to one political-religious community.

That is fundamentally different from Buddhism.

A Buddhist American may practice Buddhism faithfully, but Buddhism does not give him a second universal political order with its own law, sovereignty, territorial doctrine, and theory of government.

Islam does.

This is why reducing Islam to “just another religion” misses the point.

Muslim officeholders are literally citizens of another existing country, and their loyalties can never be American first, because the two projects are contradictory.

And the penalty for leaving Islam is death.

Where the western left is heading

Where the western left is heading. By Brianna Lyman at The Federalist.

There are now just 10 Democrats of more than 250 in Congress who have signed on to a coalition that opposes rising socialism and communism. As part of their “Promise to America,” the 10 Democrats declare (among other things): “We are capitalist, not socialist,” “We want safety, not lawlessness,” “We are proud, not ashamed of America.” That not all Democrats signed on to that in and of itself is concerning. …

Nearly 60 percent of Democrats support the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), according to a recent Quinnipiac University poll. …

The DSA is far, far left:

The DSA released a new platform in June that explicitly called for drafting “a new constitution, and creat[ing] a democratic socialist republic.” The organization also called for abolishing the Electoral College, as well as “replac[ing] the President and Supreme Court with an executive and judiciary chosen by and subordinate to Congress.”

The DSA is also pushing to “demilitarize police departments, disempower police unions, and redirect funding to public services as steps toward fully abolishing the police and prison system.” The socialists want to abolish ICE, “legalize migration, grant amnesty for all immigrants regardless of status, provide a path to citizenship for all permanent residents, and end visa caps and quotas.” …

The DSA openly pushes for what mainstream Democrats have been advancing gradually with language that is a bit more polished: destroying immigration enforcement and borders, dismantling police and prisons, and abolishing the Constitution as we know it.

Don’t be fooled by their language:

Democrats can keep pretending they are ‘moderate’ to win general elections, but moderation requires more than just saying the word over and over again.

Trends in the US usually appear in Australia after about 5 – 10 years.

The Great Replacement

The Great Replacement. By John Carter.

The left’s entire political strategy rests on demographic electorate engineering. That strategy in turn rests on the rest of us agreeing that the votes of the left’s naturalized ringers are as legitimate as the votes of natural-born citizens.

The left is accelerating this vote-packing all over the world. In Spain and France they’re explicit about this strategy: they openly brag that they’re going to Great Replace the native population, because the immigrants will vote for socialism, and the natives won’t.

We saw this work in Sweden a few days ago, where, ironically, the ringers who decided the election were naturalized by a nominally right-wing government that allowed itself to be brow-beaten into ‘following the rules’ and extending citizenship where they were ‘obligated’ to.

The ruling class insists we’re not allowed to say this. But there is an obvious truth here, even if it is not expressed delicately enough to fit through their Overton window.

High trust societies

High trust societies. By Alice Smith.

High-trust societies are not created by government legislation.

They are created over time by shared values and identity.

In fact, societies saturated by laws are a symptom of low-trust.

Commenter:

When I was student intern in Vienna Austria during the summer of 1981, I rode the streetcars daily and observed all the Viennese punching their own tickets. Try that in NYC.

What the recent AI-doomsterism is really about

What the recent AI-doomsterism is really about. By Robert Malone.

The deeper story of Netflix is not simply that another American corporation drifted left, adopted DEI, and began producing programming that many Americans find politically tiresome. It is the story of how entertainment, politics, government, technology, and the management of information have gradually converged, with Barack Obama and the political network surrounding him appearing repeatedly at the intersections. …

Culture -> politics:

Netflix formally incorporated “inclusion” into its corporate culture in 2017. … Netflix explicitly connected representation inside the corporation with representation on the screen: who gets hired, who gets to tell stories, and who tells stories with which stories audiences ultimately see.  … What critics later called “woke Netflix” was therefore not simply an accidental accumulation of unusually progressive writers and producers. Netflix itself described inclusion as part of the machinery through which content was created.

The most powerful cultural assumptions are often the ones the audience is not consciously debating at all. Ideas about race, sex, gender, marriage, government, capitalism, social democracy, American history, and social justice can be incorporated into entertainment until they simply become part of the fictional world being consumed.

The viewer never has to agree to attend the lecture because there appears to be no lecture. The action movie gets the viewer through the door. The cultural assumptions come with the subscription. …

The Obama network:

Obama’s presidency had ended years earlier, but the network had not. Political power had become institutional power, capable of surviving the individual administration that created it. …

On April 21, 2022, Obama delivered a major address [at Stanford] .. The subject was …. the architecture of information itself. Obama discussed algorithms, social media, disinformation, platform responsibility, Section 230, and the effect of digital information systems on democracy. …

“What does still nag at me, though, was my failure to fully appreciate at the time just how susceptible we had become to lies and conspiracy theories despite having spent years being a target of disinformation myself. Social media companies already make choices about what is or is not allowed on their platforms and how that content appears, both explicitly through content moderation and implicitly through algorithms. The problem is we often don’t know what principles govern those decisions in some cases, industry standards may replace or substitute for regulation, but regulation has to be part of the answer.”

The new censorship:

What this all establishes is a striking convergence: Obama was publicly calling for greater intervention in the digital information environment from within an institutional ecosystem already deeply involved in building mechanisms through which government, academia, and technology companies could identify, refer, moderate, suppress, or otherwise reduce the reach of information deemed false or harmful. …

The argument was presented in the reassuring vocabulary that has become familiar throughout the Western political establishment: democracy, safety, truth, responsible platforms, healthier discourse, misinformation, and protection from manipulation.

But underneath every one of those abstractions sits a very old and very dangerous political question. Who decides what constitutes misinformation? Who decides which speech is dangerous? Who determines what gets amplified, suppressed, demonetized, labeled, or removed? And what happens when the government officials, foundations, academics, corporations, and technology companies answering those questions overwhelmingly share the same political and cultural worldview? What happens when that viewpoint is skewed by globalism, leftist propaganda, and woke ideologies? …

For Americans whose speech was restricted, labeled, suppressed, or algorithmically buried during the COVID era [or the global warming debate, before that], the issue is not theoretical. The danger exists whenever government officials, politically aligned institutions, and enormously powerful information companies begin sharing assumptions about what constitutes dangerous information. No smoky room is required. No secret memorandum has to be signed. Institutional alignment can accomplish a remarkable amount when the people staffing government, foundations, universities, media companies, and technology platforms have already reached similar conclusions about what constitutes truth, misinformation, equity, democracy, social justice, and acceptable speech.

Religion -> culture -> politics:

Politics is downstream from culture” is the famous quote attributed to Andrew Breitbart, the American media publisher and conservative commentator who passed away in 2012.

The phrase … posits that political outcomes are a result of prevailing cultural values, beliefs, and norms. Consequently, the doctrine argues that to effect meaningful political change, one must first shift the broader culture.

An axiom of this is that scientism has replaced religion, and this is associated with a priesthood of anointed physicians and scientists. And, as any theology student will attest, religion is upstream of culture.

These channels do not have to be centrally coordinated to reinforce one another. Politics determines rules. Information systems determine which arguments people encounter. Culture shapes many of the assumptions through which people interpret those arguments. One operates through elections and government. Another operates through algorithms, search, moderation, and information distribution. The third operates through stories, heroes, villains, historical narratives, children’s programming, documentaries, and entertainment. Taken together, they represent a far more sophisticated mechanism of cultural influence than anything Edward Bernays could have imagined when he wrote Propaganda nearly a century ago.

AI:

And now the same argument has arrived at artificial intelligence. In September 2026, …. Obama urged Democrats to make artificial intelligence a central part of their agenda and argued that, if Democrats regain control of the House after the midterm elections, they should establish a framework for a major public conversation about AI….

And a week later we got the current outbreak of AI doomerism, which is obviously a psyop:

Obama’s history makes a different question unavoidable: what exactly will be regulated?

Artificial intelligence is rapidly becoming the machinery through which Americans search for information, summarize history, compare arguments, evaluate evidence, write, create media, and increasingly understand the world.

Regulation of AI therefore has implications extending far beyond whether a chatbot produces a dangerous recipe or a convincing deepfake. The rules governing AI can potentially influence the boundaries within which machines are permitted to answer questions at all. It will be and already is the next frontier in government censorship. …

Who benefits from regulation of AI?

OpenAI, Anthropic, Google and the other industry giants can afford armies of lawyers, compliance officers, safety researchers and government-relations specialists. A startup, university laboratory or independent developer cannot. Regulations requiring expensive testing, licensing and government approval can therefore protect the companies already dominating AI while making it far harder for new competitors to challenge them.

Government gains something too. An Obama political circle that has spent years arguing that the “information environment” must be managed and regulated now has an opportunity to help write the rules governing the technology that may soon become the world’s primary gateway to information. The extraordinary concentration of corporate and government power produced by their proposed solutions should scare us all.

Going global:

Nor is this confined to the United States. Europe has already moved much further toward regulating online speech and artificial intelligence through the Digital Services Act and AI Act. But the internet does not respect national borders. Global technology companies that want access to Europe’s 450 million consumers must comply with European rules, and it can be easier to build those restrictions into their global platforms than maintain entirely separate systems. The result is the so-called “Brussels Effect”: European regulators can influence what Americans see, what platforms permit, and how AI behaves without Americans ever voting for a single one of them.

Conclusion:

The Western world is deciding who will govern the information systems of the twenty-first century. Netflix initially looked like a story about an entertainment company that became political. It turns out to be a window into something much larger. Barack Obama’s post-presidential career has repeatedly converged on institutions that shape political leadership, popular culture, and the flow of information.

A government does not have to burn books to acquire enormous influence over political discourse. It can pressure platforms, define misinformation, regulate algorithms, establish rules for artificial intelligence, and encourage private institutions to police information according to standards government itself helped establish. At the same time, cultural institutions can normalize a political worldview through entertainment until ideas that were once controversial simply become the background assumptions of everyday life.

 

A 1930s book burning by national socialists

 

Each piece can be defended individually as reasonable. Netflix is only telling stories. … Stanford is only studying disinformation. The Obama Foundation is only training leaders. Government officials are only protecting people from misinformation. Regulators are only making AI safe. The political network is only helping Democratic candidates win elections. Perhaps every individual involved sincerely believes exactly that. The problem appears when all of these pieces are placed beside one another and the direction of travel becomes visible. The danger is not necessarily a conspiracy. The danger is a system in which the same political assumptions increasingly dominate the institutions that produce culture, define misinformation, regulate information technology, train political leadership, and determine the permissible boundaries of digital speech.

That is why the question of whether Netflix has become “woke” now seems almost quaint. Netflix is only one piece of a much larger struggle over who gets to shape the stories Americans hear, which information Americans find, and increasingly which answers their machines are permitted to give them.

Ronald Reagan famously warned that freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. The modern threat to that freedom may not arrive wearing jackboots or carrying a list of banned books. It may arrive promising safety, inclusion, equity, responsible information, and the protection of democracy itself. Edward Bernays understood a century ago that the most effective propaganda does not feel like propaganda.

Completely unrelated:

hat-tip Scott of the Pacific, Stephen Neil

Is Peace at Hand in Ukraine?

Is Peace at Hand in Ukraine? By Niall Ferguson in The Free Press.

Speaking … at the opening of the YES conference in Kyiv on Friday, [Jared] Kushner said that the key elements of a peace agreement were largely in place, with the exception of “territory,” an allusion to the Donbas region. The other elements — security guarantees for Ukraine and a “deconfliction mechanism” — had been in place since the last trilateral meeting of Russian, Ukrainian, and U.S. representatives in Abu Dhabi in January.

“If Ukraine were willing to move back to Putin’s desired line,” Kushner said, “the rest of the deal would be ready.” ...

That is, of course, a very big “if,” given the consistent refusal of the Ukrainian government to accept territorial cessions. … [Kushner] elicited incredulous laughter when he said Putin was sincere about peace talks. However, he responded: “Everything looks impossible until right before it’s achieved.” …

Military:

A year ago, I was quite concerned about Ukraine’s thinly stretched armed forces. However, Ukraine’s advances in military technology have more than compensated for these vulnerabilities. …

Nevertheless, Russia has responded in ways that dispel any notion of a Ukrainian victory. Russia continues to strike Ukrainian cities every day with drones and missiles, while Ukraine’s air defenses are much less effective than a year ago. Not only is there a shortage of Patriot interceptors; Russia has also switched to jet-powered strike drones that are much harder to intercept. Moreover, the Ukrainians are fearful that Russia is close to deploying its own version of Starlink. …

Economic:

Both the Ukrainian and Russian economies are showing signs of strain, but the strain is greater in Ukraine.

From the outset, this war has been a contest between David and Goliath. The International Monetary Fund estimates that the Russian population is 4.4 times larger than Ukraine’s and the Russian economy is 11.8 times larger (on a current dollar basis). Ukraine’s growth has stalled this year. …

Russia’s fiscal situation is ugly but workable. …

Those who continue to talk about the outcome of the war being determined by a Russian economic crisis are missing the point. It is Ukraine that is much closer to a crisis. …

China:

Russia’s war effort relies increasingly on China, but it is made available on commercial terms, not as aid. Bilateral trade between Moscow and Beijing is on track to hit an all-time high of roughly $280 billion this year. Russia now relies on China for roughly 57 percent of its total imports, compared with 13 to 14 percent before the war. China supplies around 90 percent of Russia’s sanctioned tech imports. While Beijing stops short of sending finished military hardware, it provides billions in dual-use goods — microchips, drones, and tools. And China buys about 50 percent of all Russian crude oil exports, 37 percent of its exported coal, and 31 percent of its pipeline gas. It has even defied U.S. sanctions by ramping up imports from Russia’s newer Arctic LNG 2 project. Over the last two decades, Russia has also accumulated $169.3 billion in total debt to China.

To an extent that is underappreciated, the war in Ukraine is now a proxy war between the EU and China. The difference is that China makes a profit from backing Russia. …

Political:

This is a war between a fledgling democratic nation-state and a fascist empire. In this regard, too, it is not a fair fight. Putin’s opposition is either dead, in jail, or in exile. Not so Zelensky’s. …

Ordinary Ukrainians are thoroughly sick of this war and filled with foreboding as winter approaches. … Zelensky may need a ceasefire, but he would surely not survive politically if he relinquished territory Ukraine has succeeded in defending. …

The obvious path for Putin is simply to press on through the winter, waging total war against Ukraine and exploiting his advantages, …

The trends in European politics are not friendly to Ukraine. In France, Rassemblement National leader Marine Le Pen is the favorite to succeed Emmanuel Macron as French president. In Germany, the chancellorship of Friedrich Merz is crumbling as the Alternative für Deutschland gains ground in regional elections. In Italy, Giorgia Meloni risks being outflanked by the neo-fascist Roberto Vannacci’s Futuro Nazionale. All the European populist parties are skeptical about the war in Ukraine, if not overtly pro-Russian. …

The recent U.S. visitors to Moscow offered Putin a stark choice: “Press on with the war and we will continue to provide the Ukrainians with targeting intelligence; or settle this diplomatically and we can give you the kind of economic rehabilitation you will not get from anyone else.” As usual, the Kushner-Witkoff team approaches a classic diplomatic problem — how to end a war — with the techniques of the New York real estate market. In effect, the Ukrainians are being told to sell the remaining territory they control in Donetsk at an attractive price in the form of postwar funding for reconstruction and investment. …

The Americans seem to think Putin is finally ready for serious talks in which he would effectively concede the rump Ukraine’s right to a continued independent existence, minus Crimea and Donbas.

Great article, if you’re looking for a long read.