It’s about 47 years of accumulated pain

It’s about 47 years of accumulated pain. By Ali Ansari in The Australian.

To paraphrase Trump, it’s about 47 years of accumulated pain. Over the past year, the Islamic Republic has found itself confronted by a US with a grievance to match its own, and with a growing political will to do something about it.

Moreover, in Trump the regime’s leaders were disturbed to find someone with about as much respect for the international rules-based order as they had. For Iran’s people, who have been at the sharp end of the Islamic Republic’s disdain for rules and rights of any nature, Trump’s approach seemed refreshing. This is why, to the apparent bewilderment of some commentators, many Iranians in Iran were thrilled by the US attack.

Gerard Baker in The Australian:

From its outset in 1979, the Islamic Republic has made murdering Americans among its highest priorities. From the more than 200 Marines killed by Hezbollah in the 1983 Beirut bombing and the 600 or so American service members killed by Iran-backed militias in Iraq to the many US citizens terrorised, captured and killed by Hamas and other Iranian-sponsored entities in Gaza and around the world, Tehran has repeatedly bathed in American blood.

Under the principle of self-defence, action taken against a regime that has killed so many of our own citizens is legitimate, not simply for retributive justice, but to prevent further killings. It would have been preferable if Mr Trump had spent more time in the past few weeks explaining that case to the American people and, ideally, securing a political mandate from congress for it. But the failure to do so doesn’t make the cause an illegitimate one.

Here’s a big list of terrorist attacks and military actions against US Persons carried out by Iran and Iranian-backed terrorist groups since 1979.

 

Only George HW Bush’s war to expel Saddam Hussein from Kuwait in 1991 can be counted as a clear success, and then only because its objective was tightly circumscribed. Ronald Reagan’s effort to stabilise Lebanon in the early 1980s ended in the bombing of the Beirut Marine barracks, while his later efforts to extricate US hostages resulted in the self-inflicted wound of Iran-Contra, and George W. Bush’s war with Iraq in 2003 cost intolerable loss of life and untold damage to America’s strategic capabilities and stature.

Democratic presidents’ less ambitious efforts have fared no better. Bill Clinton’s standoff bombing campaign failed to arrest the rise of al-Qa’ida and led more or less directly to the September 11 attacks; Barack Obama “led from behind”, unleashing chaos in Libya, and permitted Syria to cross his chemical weapons red line. Joe Biden’s catastrophic exit from Afghanistan (part of the Greater Middle East for these purposes) was a humiliation.

Kurt Schlicter:

I reject any allegedly right-coded ideology that requires that we allow seventh century Third World savages to murder our people and not pay for it.

There is no expiration date for righteous retribution.

If you believe that seventh century Third World savages can murder our people and not pay for it, then we are not the same.

It’s the Arab way of war. Surprise attacks, needling, attacks calibrated not to draw a full-blooded response, outbreed and out-fanatic the non-Muslims. Given how Islam has 2 billion people, you have to respect the methodology — it works in the long run.

Rest in Pieces: Ali Khamenei, Demure Progressive Stalwart Who Inspired Democrats, Bombed to Death at 86

Rest in Pieces: Ali Khamenei, Demure Progressive Stalwart Who Inspired Democrats, Bombed to Death at 86. By Andrew Stiles in The Washington Free Beacon.

Ali Khamenei, the “Black Lives Matter” advocate and long-serving supreme leader of Iran, was a guiding light to Democratic lawmakers, Ivy League professors, and other progressive ideologues who endorsed his intellectual appraisal of America’s evil and the treachery of Jews.

In darkness they must now persist. …

 

“Khamenei, one of the most evil people in History, is dead,” President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social. He was 86.

The Iranian people cheered a tyrant’s demise and hoped for what could be. You could tell their joy was real and not the Kamala Harris kind. The ayatollah’s left-wing comrades sobbed like sloppy seventh graders. They shook their fists at mushroom clouds and wept for what had been. The revolution. The hostages. The oil nonsense. Decades of degenerate behavior and the targeting of American soldiers. The homespun hipster in his button-down shirt (also killed). The slow death of the Iranian economy, which even the Obama nuclear shake-down couldn’t stop.

They had to hand it to the supreme leader. Fans commended him for dying honorably — on his own terms, mid-resistance, cowering in a bunker, surrounded by his closest friends and military commanders. They touted his progressive bona fides — he understood that decolonization was more than vibes and essays. In May 2020, he penned an eloquent clapback against white supremacy after the death of George Floyd. He never took Trump’s calls or laughed at a misogynistic joke, which in some ways made him even more of a winner than the USA men’s hockey team. He inspired a generation of Ivy League losers to hate Jews even more than they hate themselves.

Khamenei’s death was a crippling blow to America’s elite institutions, many of which had presumably shortlisted the supreme leader in their search for a commencement speaker. It was basically the last remaining option to forestall a shrieking walkout. Now what? The students and faculty who supported Iran’s proxy, Hamas, and its “anti-colonial insurgency,” are naturally devastated. Their terrorist allies have been crushed. They must endure the moral indignity of mourning a tyrant who murdered thousands and repressed millions. It remains to be seen which campus chapters of Feminist Fatties for Palestine will issue statements denouncing Iranian women for burning their hijabs. …

Rest in pieces, thug.

Footage of Kuwaiti locals approaching one of the shot down American pilots this morning

Footage of Kuwaiti locals approaching one of the shot down American pilots this morning. Via OSINTtechnical.

“Are you OK? Thank you for helping us.”

 

Related:

They didn’t want to show the Venezuelan people celebrating and waving US flags.

They don’t want to show the Iranian people celebrating and thanking Trump.

 

 

Obama was droning American citizens and the left didn’t bat an eye but Trump takes out one of the worst regimes in the world and they act like he stomped a kitten.

 

The Left’s nonsense about Iran 1953

The Left’s nonsense about Iran 1953.

The leftist talking point:

Iran was a democracy from 1923-1953. The PM Mohammad Mosaddegh wanted to save his national resources from exploitation from UK/US Oil companies. He nationaled the OIL wells.

MI6/CIA did coup, removed him and put puppet Shah on throne.

Technically true, sort of, but it’s lying by omission. Eli Lake:

This is an ignorant talking point repeated by people who want to sound like they know the history.

Mossedegh had dissolved the Majles [the Iranian parliament], replaced the army leadership and Supreme Court and closed newspapers by the time the Shah used his constitutional authority to fire him.

Commenters:

This convenient historical myth has become a staple of the populist left. Its roots lie in Marxist historiographical revisionism, and many scholars shaped by that tradition appear as sources in major media. Notably, even outlets as different as The Free Press and Al Jazeera rely on the same intellectual lineage when convenient. …

Mossadegh was wildly unpopular with the Iranian people by the time of his removal, a fact that always seems to get ignored in popular mythology …

And the CIA didn’t do anything. They tried to claim responsibility, but Eisenhower saw through it and called their report little better than a dime store spy novel.

Oh, let’s not forget: the mullahs actually supported the removal of Mossadegh.

More:

On July 25, 1953, Mossadegh’s government decreed a referendum to dissolve the Majlis entirely. The vote (August 3–10) was non-secret and widely criticized as rigged. Official result: ~99.9% approval (over 2 million “yes” votes). Mossadegh then ruled by decree, declaring “the will of the people is above law.” This directly violated the 1906 Constitution, which reserved dissolution power to the Shah.

Bob Reisner:

There are three things about the post WW2 Iran -USA relationship that needs to be understood:

  1. Post WW2 Iran exists because Truman threatened to nuke the USSR in 1947 if the didn’t stop their invasion of Iran. They did.
  2. Under Eisenhower, the world was to be populated by small and medium sized countries run by people supporting the USA. And some of them would be selected to be regional powers that kept their area mostly peaceful. And that includes the first shah.
  3. President Carter was a smart idiot. He was offended by the fact that the Shah would kill as many as a thousand people each year to keep control. Carter could not understand that the replacement for the Shah would be a regime killing millions. If he [had] supported the Shah, the entire Mideast would have been pretty peaceful for the last 45 years. The Shah understood his role to be the USA supporter and be the regional power to keep the neighborhood relatively quiet. Carter directly caused the Shah to run by not acting as his backstop.

All Trump is trying to do is to get Iran back to 1955. Iran continues to be the best alternative for the regional power who sides with the USA and keeps the neighborhood peace.

The last 45 years shows us that Trump needs to succeed.

Fascinating. And entirely omitted from the breathless war coverage.

How leftism emerged from the French and German versions of the Enlightenment

How leftism emerged from the French and German versions of the Enlightenment. By Stehen Soukop in American Greatness.

In truth, the Enlightenment can be divided into four segments:

  1. the English Enlightenment, led by men like Thomas Hobbes, John Locke, and Isaac Newton;
  2. the French Enlightenment, which featured Voltaire, Diderot, and Rousseau;
  3. the Scottish Enlightenment, highlighting Francis Hutcheson, David Hume, and Dugald Stewart; and
  4. the German Enlightenment, the irresistible force of which was Immanuel Kant.

All segments of the Enlightenment shared certain characteristics — a break (of varying extremities) from the moral foundations of civilizational history up to that point, a preoccupation with reason as a guiding moral and intellectual force, and a belief in the authority of carefully ordered empiricism.

Differences:

  • The English and the Scottish Enlightenments focused on reform, gradualism, and the advancement of existing institutions.
  • The French Enlightenment and the Kantian-led German Enlightenment, by contrast, were radical, focused on universalism, and on the destruction rather than the reform of institutions. …

Rubio’s address to the Munich Security Conference two weeks ago pretended that the Entitlement was a single thing, and overlooked their common origin:

In the micro sense, Rubio was … mistaken about Europe being the site where “the ideas that planted the seeds of liberty that changed the world were born.” Those ideas were, in fact, born thousands of years previously, not in Europe, but in ancient Israel.

The English and the Scottish Enlightenments, which influenced many aspects of the American Revolution and its founding documents, did not break entirely from these historical influences. They updated them and modified their language, adding additional flair, but they nevertheless maintained the moral and political ideas that had animated the West for millennia. For example, one can draw a fairly straight line from Jeremiah 1:5—“Before I formed you in the womb I knew you, and before you were born I consecrated you”—through Sophocles’s Antigone to Cicero’s De Legibus; through Augustine’s De Trinitate to Aquinas’s Summa; through Locke’s Two Treatises of Government to Jefferson’s declaration that it is self-evident “that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness.”

The seeds of liberty that changed the world, in short, were not planted in Europe. They were planted in the ancient Middle East, cultivated in the Mediterranean, harvested in Britain, and shipped to the nascent United States. This sequence of moral and intellectual stewardship matters immeasurably. …

Europe lost the seed of liberty because it’s version of the Enlightenment went left:

The principal philosophical and political influence on the continental branch of Western civilization was and is inarguably Jean-Jacques Rousseau, the intellectual godfather of “the Left” and, in my estimation, the designer of the “modern world.” …

 

Jean-Jacques Rousseau (1712–1778) was a Genevan philosopher, writer, and political theorist. He introduced the concept of the general will — a collective will aimed at the common good. He argued that legitimate political authority arises from a social contract where individuals collectively agree to surrender some freedoms in exchange for protection and equality. Rousseau claimed that humans are naturally good and free, but society — particularly the institution of private property — corrupts them, fostering competition, pride, and inequality. This breaks with the Christian notion of original sin (which expresses the biological truth that we are a human cortex on top of a mammalian brain on top of a selfish reptilian ancient brain) and the empirical observation that societies that don’t respect private property are always poor.

 

In brief: Rousseau offered “the West” a social contract that was almost entirely opposite to that synthesized by Locke and favored by the American Founders. Rousseau’s Social Contract rests on the idea that the state exists to guarantee the liberty of the individual, and that this liberty can only be expressed and understood within the context of something called the “general will” of the people. … It empowers small and radical factions to govern as if they represent the will of the entire people, as if the “general will” and nothing more guides their actions. Additionally — and, perhaps, more importantly — it allows them to do whatever they want in defense of this general will, as Rousseau himself recommended …

When French president Emmanuel Macron declares that “free speech is pure bullsh*t,” he is articulating, in his own puerile way, the Rousseauian influence on the continental understanding of freedom. Similarly, German law mandates Sozialpflichtigkeit (that property ownership be tempered by a social obligation), which is Rousseau’s “general will” and disdain for private property, filtered through Hegel and historicist economists like Gustav von Schmoller. And most tragically, when Keir Starmer’s government arrests grannies for tweeting unacceptable memes, it is demonstrating Britain’s loss of faith in its intellectual traditions and its acceptance of continental influences in their stead.

There lies exposed the leftist trick: A small radical group claims it is implementing the “general will” of the people, and in the traditions of the French and German Enlightenment that is sufficient to justify leadership — and whatever it takes to gain and retain power.

But Christain and the Anglo traditions says no, individuals and private property must be respected, and you need elections to ratify policy.

Australia has 28 days of fuel, instead of the 90 we are committed to internationally– the sole reprobate!

Australia has 28 days of fuel, instead of the 90 we are committed to internationally — the sole reprobate! By Burney Wong at The Daily Mail.

Australia is facing critically low fuel reserves, raising fears petrol prices could surge amid escalating conflict between the United States and Iran.

The International Energy Agency recommends countries maintain at least 90 days’ worth of fuel stockpiles, but Australia is reported to have just 28 days of reserves remaining.

Brave AI:

Under the IEA’s International Energy Programme (IEP), member countries are required to hold emergency oil stocks equivalent to at least 90 days of net oil imports to ensure energy security during global supply disruptions.

However, Australia has been non-compliant with this obligation since 2012. 

Australia remains the only IEA member state consistently failing to meet the 90-day stockholding requirement.

Some Australian mosques, organisations honour ‘martyrdom’ of Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Some Australian mosques, organisations honour ‘martyrdom’ of Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. By Elizabeth Pike in The Australian.

Mosques and Islamic community centres in Sydney and Melbourne are openly inviting members to honour the “martyrdom” of Iran’s dead leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, despite the Australian government’s hard-line stance against the regime.

At least four Shi’ite institutions have published obituaries and public memorials for the supreme leader since Iranian state media confirmed his death on Sunday, following a wave of airstrikes by the US and Israel. …

Despite schisms between the Shi’ite community [Iran is shi’ite] and the Sunni majority in Australia, the Sunni Australian Federation of Islamic Councils issued a statement on Sunday condemning the Albanese government for supporting the strikes. …

Yeah sanity!

On Monday, NSW Premier Chris Minns said the mourning events were “atrocious”.

“By any objective measure, the ayatollah was evil, and I don’t think we should be mincing words about this. The truth of the matter is, weeks ago he and his regime were responsible for killing 30,000 protesters within that city, for simply demonstrating against the regime and their practices,” Mr Minns said.

“This is a regime that murders young boys on the suspicion of being gay. I think we can call the mourning of this tyrant atrocious.”

 

Melbourne

Alexandra Marshall:

Do you really think pro-Palestine protesters would put their lives on the line to defend Australia?

Australians sense this. That’s why they’re worried.

There are too many people in this nation who are loyal to foreign regimes in distant lands.

Feminists spoiled for choice on who to hate

Feminists spoiled for choice on who to hate. By Kurt Schlicter.

It will never not be hilarious that the same retarded, SSRI-gobbling weirdos who walked around dressed as handmaidens are now collectively wetting themselves because Donald Trump killed the guy who literally made women walk around dressed as handmaidens.

 

 

 

 

 

Short Pieces on the War

Short Pieces on the War.

William Wolfe:

The fact that a billionaire real estate playboy who liked to slap his name on steaks and wine has proven to be a better diplomat and military strategist than every other politician and foreign policy expert over the last 30 years is such a damning indictment of the DC establishment I honestly don’t know how they recover.

Lozzy B.

Muslim Iranian women offer up their baby sons to die as martyrs.

 

 

C3:

Once you realize this you’ll never miss it again.

When America is in a dispute with another country the Dems and Media will ALWAYS side with the other country.

Last time it was Venezuela. Today its Iran.

It doesn’t matter who it is or what it’s about. They just hate America.

Except that wars they create, like Libya or Syria, then they don’t talk about it on the legacy media.

Vaguely related, by MNConcervative:

Fun Fact: Ilhan Omar’s father was a senior ranking Somali Military official — Colonel Nur Omar Mohamed.

Colonel Mohamed led the Isaaq genocide that massacred 200,000 civilians in Somaliland.

Maybe sit this one out Ilhan Omar [in reply to her “Trump has launched an illegal regime change war. … bla bla bla]”

 

The fighting starts, and amazingly, all the Muslims in the West oppose the West and are on the side of the Muslim country. Further, in the Gulf, within hours all the diplomatic patina is swept away and it’s the old ethnic squabble of Arabs versus Persians all over again, like for the last 3,000 years. Don’t be fooled by the globalist idea that we are blank slates and all the same, that we are all now citizens of the world who have left tribalism and biology behind. Clearly not true.

New war technology allows kings to fight more directly, mostly leaving the peasants alone

New war technology allows kings to fight more directly, mostly leaving the peasants alone. By wretchardthecat.

The 2026 calendar. Maduro in January. El Mencio in February. Khamenei in March announces the new American way of war.

An unnoticed development in the history of conflict has taken place. For the first time in memory it is the kingpins, not the henchmen, who are dying first in wars.

The trend began with the famous pager attack on Hezbollah leadership in 2024 when the bigs had their command appliances blow up in their faces. The NPCs [non-playing characters] were relatively safe. It became more pronounced when Hassan Nasrallah was blown up, together with his gold bars and underlings, in an impregnable underground bunker.

The kings were dying first. …

The preponderance of elite deaths over the common is by design. At the commencement the US president “told members of Iran’s armed forces could either lay down their weapons and be given ‘complete immunity’, or “face certain death”. He also urged Iranian civilians to stay in their homes and prepare to overthrow the clerical establishment.” The quarrel is between the sovereigns, not the peasants. …

None of this should be read to justify war or trivialize it, but it is nevertheless a fact that changes in the technology of combat have made it far more economical and altogether less trouble to target the kingpins rather than the NPCs.

Such a pleasant change from WW2, when peasants died by the millions — e.g. Coventry, Dresden, Nanking, Hiroshima.

Sneaking up on Khamenei

Sneaking up on Khamenei. By Shanaka Anslem Perera

They did not bomb Iran. They waited for Iran’s entire leadership to sit down in the same room and then they bombed Iran.

Months of intelligence. Thousands of hours of surveillance and signal intercepts. One variable: the moment the Supreme Leader, the President, and senior military command gathered in a single location at the same time.

That moment was 8:15 this morning. Daylight. Every previous Israeli strike on Iran came at night. June 2025 launched in darkness. October 2024 after midnight. Iran’s entire air defense doctrine is built around the assumption that Israel attacks in the dark. Israel attacked in broad daylight because the target was not infrastructure. The target was a meeting.

Iran’s leadership now knows three things. Israel knew where they were meeting. Israel knew when they were meeting. Israel knew who would be in the room. And everything we watched over the past month, the F-22s at Ovda, the tankers at Ben Gurion, Al Udeid emptied to zero, 270 transport flights, all of it was the delivery architecture for one precision strike on one gathering.

Every future meeting of Iran’s senior leadership now carries one question: does Israel know about this one too?

This is not a military operation. This is the destruction of institutional trust inside a regime. Every general who sits with Khamenei tomorrow will wonder who told Jerusalem about today.

Iran 2026 Is Not Iraq 2003

Iran 2026 Is Not Iraq 2003. By Niall Ferguson in The Free Press.

It’s just “regime alteration:”

After the U.S. captured Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro last month, I suggested to a senior administration official that what we had just seen was not regime change but regime alteration — in the sense that, while Maduro had been replaced by Delcy Rodríguez, the structure of the Chavista regime remained in place. The alteration was that Delcy would now report to Washington, not to Havana or Beijing.

“Regime alteration,” he said, writing it down. “I might use that.”

Indeed, regime alteration is the practical consequence of the approach laid out in Trump’s National Security Strategy published late last year. The strategy rules out the deployment of American ground forces other than special forces. It requires a short time frame for military operations. It will disappoint those who want to fast-track Venezuela and Iran to democracy. But the lesson of Iraq has not been lost on Trump.

That is why it misses the point to say, “Trump claimed to be an isolationist and he’s just started another forever war.” One thing I can confidently promise about the U.S.-Israeli war against the Islamic Republic: It will not last long.

Khamenei — the theocrat who has ruled for more than 30 years, setting Iran’s intransigent nuclear policy, building up Hezboollah, Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen, and who had Iran fighting heavily in Syria — is almost certainly dead.

On Saturday afternoon, Trump announced that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had been killed.

 

 

Boo!

As last year, the diplomacy of the last few weeks was merely maskirovka — a disguise — to persuade the Iranians that they might talk their way out of the destruction Trump threatened in early January, when Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was slaughtering protesters in the streets. …

Far from being strung along by wily Persian negotiators, the Trump administration was surprisingly explicit in its warnings — even more so than last June. On February 19, Trump told Iran that it had just 10 to 15 days to avert potential military action. A week ago, his special envoy Steve Witkoff declared that Iran was now “probably a week away from having industrial-grade bomb-making material” and insisted that “zero enrichment” was one of Trump’s “red lines.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Wednesday that Tehran’s refusal “to talk about [its] ballistic missiles to us or to anyone” was “a big problem.”

Omani-mediated talks continued in Geneva until Thursday, but anyone who thought that Witkoff and Jared Kushner were planning to return from the U.S. after “consultations” wasn’t reading the Situation Room. Trump told reporters last Thursday that “we’re either going to get a deal, or it’s going to be unfortunate for them.” By refusing to yield on enrichment and missiles, the Iranians chose the unfortunate option. …

Not Iraq 2003:

Operation Epic Fury differs from Operation Iraqi Freedom—the 2003 invasion of Iraq—in two key respects. Yes, the justification is preemption against a regime intent on acquiring weapons of mass destruction and implicated in international terrorism. But the goal is not to march into Iran and confer, much less impose, freedom on the Iranians. It is to decapitate the Islamic Republic’s political structure and leave the Iranians to take their freedom from the mullahs and their murderous henchmen. As Trump said in his speech this morning, “members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the armed forces and all of the police” can “have complete immunity” if they lay down their weapons.

Will this succeed? We don’t yet know, but it’s important to note that the Iranian regime has few effective friends. …

Iran’s barrage of missile attacks on its neighbors’ territory has achieved little other than to convert fence-sitters into supporters of the U.S.-Israeli effort. In what will surely prove to be a spasm of self-immolation, the Iranians have hit Bahrain (which hosts the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet headquarters) and other targets in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. This is how to lose friends and alienate people.

Who’s ruling Iran now?

The real question is: Who rules in Tehran after Khamenei? Or, to put it bluntly, who’s the Iranian Delcy in this regime alteration? The 86-year-old head of state is now either dead or so deep underground that he can at least be considered buried. (His nickname these days is “Moushe-Ali,” or “Ali the Mouse,” because he’s mostly in a deep hole.) …

Good news / bad news:

The good news is that regime alternation is easier than regime change, as we have already seen in Venezuela. In the Middle East, the U.S. has unrivaled dominance. As we have seen, neither Russia nor China can do much to help Iran.

The bad news is that “triangular diplomacy” now works against the United States. In late February 2025, Xi Jinping said after a video call with Putin that Russia and China are “true friends who have been through thick and thin together.” Their Axis meets regularly and appears to have a game plan. Europe is in danger of becoming the battleground of Cold War II, as Asia was the battleground of Cold War I. A Ukrainian defeat by Russia would be disastrous for European security, which is why Trump wants to end the war there. But the biggest risk the world faces is still a Taiwan Crisis, the economic consequences of which would be greater than the 1973-74 Oil Shock because of the centrality of Taiwan’s semiconductor fabs to the world economy. It’s hard to see how Trump and Xi will find common ground on this issue during their summit in April.

The price of oil hasn’t moved much, currently US$ 67.

A fleeting strategic opportunity

A fleeting strategic opportunity. By Ian Langford in The Australian.

From a historical perspective, the US took full advantage of what strategists would call a “fleeting strategic opportunity”. January’s student-led protests across Iranian cities revealed something long suspected but rarely visible at scale: generational exhaustion with clerical rule. Unlike earlier uprisings, these protests were decentralised, digitally co-ordinated, and openly political rather than purely economic.

The regime’s legitimacy, always contested, showed signs of structural erosion.

 

 

Washington’s apparent calculation was stark. If regime cohesion was already weakening, removing its leadership nucleus might trigger internal fragmentation faster than external pressure ever could. President Trump’s speech, which coincided with the first missile salvos, was directed explicitly at the Iranian people, signalling that “now is the time to take control of your future,” which confirmed that the US objective for this operation extended beyond military degradation to political transformation. …

This moment marks the end of the post-1979 strategic framework. For 45 years, regional security revolved around managing, rather than resolving, the Iranian question. Deterrence assumed regime continuity. Diplomacy assumed ideological permanence. Even confrontation was calibrated to avoid systemic collapse. Operation Epic Fury breaks that assumption. …

There is also a psychological dimension. By demonstrating willingness to strike leadership targets directly, the US has crossed a threshold rarely approached since the Cold War. Adversaries and allies alike will reassess American risk tolerance and strategic intent….

The strategic wager embedded in Trump’s appeal to the Iranian people:

If widespread mobilisation follows, historians may view this moment as analogous to 1989 in Eastern Europe, a sudden unravelling of an entrenched ideological state once its coercive centre disappeared. If not, the region could instead enter a prolonged phase of instability marked by factional struggle, proxy violence, and uncertain succession. …

What is clear is that the Middle East has crossed a strategic Rubicon. … There is no going back to shadow wars and incremental pressure.  …

This was not another episode in a long rivalry. It was a decisive attempt to end it.

 

Iranian high school students are cheering and chanting “I Love Trump”

 

Explosions in Tehran, but the streets are alive with dancing and cheers from Iranians against the regime.

 

 

 

NotKennyRogers:

Muslim countries that support today’s U.S strike on Iran: Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, UAE, Bahrain

Muslim countries that DO NOT support today’s U.S. strike on Iran: France, United Kingdom

The Arab world hates and fears Iran. The Iranians are natural allies of Western Civilization, being higher up in the “oppression tree,” along with Israel and the West.

UPDATE: Only 37% of Iranians identify as Muslims — 2020 survey.

While 32% of the population identifies as Shi’ite Muslim, around 9% identify as atheist, 8% as Zoroastrian, 7% as spiritual, 6% as agnostic, and 5% as Sunni Muslim. Others stated that they identify with or follow Sufi mysticism, humanism, Christianity, the Baha’i faith, or Judaism, among other worldviews. Around 22% identified with none of the above. …

Around 60% reported that they do not pray, while around 40% differed in their reported frequency of praying, among whom over 27% reported praying five times a day.

68% of the population believes that religious prescriptions should be excluded from state legislation, even if believers hold a parliamentary majority. …

Around 72% opposed the compulsory hijab, while 15% insist on the legal obligation to wear the hijab in public.