Straits of Hormuz update

Straits of Hormuz update. By Richard Fernandez.

Iran’s missile attack volume was substantially higher in March 2026 than in July 2026 going from as many as hundreds per day then to mere dozens now. It’s retaliatory power, while still existent, has clearly diminished.

Since the war restarted in early July 2026, the United States has not used “exquisite” high-end weapons (heavy standoff cruise missiles, stealth bombers, or hypersonics) at anything approaching the scale or intensity of the initial campaign in late February–March 2026. Nor has it required the augmentation of a parallel campaign by Israel. It appears to have greater dominance than in March. This probably means a far greater weight of delivery. …

The strait of Hormuz situation:

 

From reading the media one gets the impression that the US is inflicting so much damage on Iran that Washington is in danger of punching itself out.

The IR [Iraqian Regime] for its part is showing that it can keep absorbing destruction while still laughing, which must be demoralizing to Trump.

Yet while the IR merely laughs at the blows it is exciting the pity of the entire civilized world, who are disgusted at the meting out of such a one sided beating, warning that the worse the thrashings the greater the reparation which must eventually be paid.

Commenters:

When there is no reasonable way defeat can be logically avoided the losing party can make losing so catastrophic the victor will dread to win. Imperial Japan pursued this strategy in WW2, reasoning that it could force the allies to negotiate with the military — otherwise millions would die in an invasion.

Ironically as the sinking paradox becomes the only choice left it increases the power of the hardliners.

Iran can’t be reasonable because there is no reasonable way the IR wins. …

The US has hardly touched Iran. Barely touched. WWII style strategic bombing would destroy 80% of Iran’s electrical grid, water supply and oil infrastructure in 72 hours. Yes, 72 hours. Tehran would be dark — no power — no water to fight fires, no food.