Trump does Davos. By Niall Ferguson in The Free Press.

Europeans vs Trump — who really won?

A rapidly forming narrative in the European and liberal media [is] that the Europeans “won Davos”: primarily by getting Trump to “de-escalate” his demand that the United States acquire Greenland from Denmark. …

Here at Davos, I’ve heard numerous versions of this sentiment: “We Europeans/Canadians stood up to Trump and forced him to retreat. This is a major victory for the rules-based international order.”

This is a very wrong take. The reality is that Trump won Davos, hands down. And not only did he win it; he owned it.

I have never before seen a single individual so completely dominate this vast bazaar of the powerful, the wealthy, the famous, and the self-important.

My long-standing contrarian rule is that the Davos consensus is always wrong. …

Winding them up before the meeting:

In the run-up to Davos 2026, Trump did his utmost to wind up Europe’s elite, not to mention Canada’s. On social media and in interviews, he insisted that he was determined to get Greenland for the United States. “Greenland has to be acquired,” he wrote on the eve of his arrival in Switzerland. “Denmark and its European allies have to DO THE RIGHT THING.” He did not rule out military action.

He threatened to impose new 10 percent tariffs on all countries that resisted. And he posted memes of maps of Denmark (and Canada) cloaked in the Stars and Stripes and an AI-generated image of himself planting an American flag on “Greenland—U.S. Territory Est. 2026.” …

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent drolly wondered if European leaders might unleash their “most forceful weapon,” the “dreaded European working group.” …

Enter Trump:

On Wednesday, Trump landed — and that afternoon regaled the Davos crowd with the stand-up improv routine that has become so familiar to American audiences.

“It’s great to be back in beautiful Davos, Switzerland,” he began “and to address so many respected business leaders, so many friends, a few enemies.” He boasted about the U.S. economy (with good reason — it has defied the economists). He boasted about U.S. energy policy and scorned “the Green New Scam — perhaps the greatest hoax in history.” And he restated his desire for outright ownership of Greenland (a “big, beautiful piece of ice. It’s hard to call it land. It’s a big piece of ice.”). “I’m seeking immediate negotiations,” he said, “to once again discuss the acquisition of Greenland by the United States, just as we have acquired many other territories throughout our history.”

This was vintage Trump, part real-estate pitch, part reality TV. “All we’re asking for is to get Greenland,” he riffed, “including right, title, and ownership, because you need the ownership to defend it. You can’t defend it on a lease. Legally, it’s not defensible that way, totally. And number two, psychologically, who the hell wants to defend a license agreement or a lease[?]” …

The deal:

Later that evening, following a “very productive meeting” with NATO secretary general Mark Rutte, Trump announced on Truth Social that he would not impose the additional tariffs on European countries he had threatened. He and Rutte had “formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and, in fact, the entire Arctic Region.”

Europeans feel good about winning:

The Europeans and Canadians resisted the temptation to high-five, but they certainly were sending one another “TACO” memes on WhatsApp. Some openly claimed a diplomatic victory. Sophisticates said it was the stock market’s adverse reaction to his tariff threats that had caused Trump to “chicken out.” …

Trump got what he wanted all along:

The problem with all of this is the premise that Trump ever seriously meant to annex Greenland or to impose new tariffs on the Europeans. Why would he when a) the United States already enjoys (under a 1951 treaty with Denmark and a 2004 agreement with Greenland) all the military access to the frigid island it could every possibly need, while the Danes pay for the heavily subsidized inhabitants of the island; and b) Trump means what he says on Truth Social only about half the time, according to The Wall Street Journal’s recent analysis of 2,700 substantive Truth posts.

I’ll say it again: Half the time he’s bluffing. And it was the same when he was on Twitter in series one. …

I hate to tell you, folks: TACO is the wrong way of thinking about a man who habitually bluffs half the time.

Ten years ago, Europeans made the mistake of taking Trump neither seriously nor literally. Now they make the opposite mistake of treating him both seriously and literally. But, as Saleno Zito explained nearly 10 years ago, the correct approach is to take him seriously but not literally.

The fact that Trump carries out only around half the threats he makes on social media is a feature, not a bug — and it’s certainly not a sign of weakness. It is a deliberate tactic designed to leave counterparties uncertain. On this occasion, Trump was bluffing, and the administration never had the remotest intention of imposing new tariffs on Europe, much less taking military action to annex Greenland. …

But why did he threaten it? Just for the lolz? Certainly, there was much hilarity among U.S. government staffers at Davos as they watched the president’s speech in the USA House at Promenade 95. They certainly were in on the joke. But I am pretty sure there was more going on here than mere presidential trolling.

Watch the magician’s other hand:

The reason Trump forced Greenland to be the No. 1 topic at Davos, I suspect, was to keep European leaders from meddling in America’s Middle Eastern and Eastern European policy. It was notable on Wednesday how little the president said about Iran and Ukraine. That is because his administration has plans afoot for both countries.

Why might the Trump administration prefer the Europeans to be talking about Greenland instead of Iran or Ukraine? Well, maybe because Europe would be bound to make its usual pleas for “de-escalation” with respect to Tehran. And maybe because the Americans think it was European and British diplomats who last year impeded progress toward a peace deal for Ukraine by insisting on modifications to the 28-point plan that Witkoff and Kushner had worked out with Russian representatives.

I therefore offer the hypothesis that all the fuss about Greenland was a classic example of Trumpian maskirovka — a distraction similar to his claim that peace negotiations with Iran were continuing, just one day before the U.S. air strike on the Fordow nuclear facility.

Cool. Trump’s much wilier than most people realize, even though he’s been doing it in public for years.