The Brazilian Biden. By Sarah Anderson at PJ Media.

For many of us here in the United States, it reeked of 2020. An incumbent who trailed in the first round staged a late surge to claim victory after a last-minute judicial intervention extended voting hours, transport disruptions appeared in areas favorable to the eventual winner, and the losing candidate immediately refused to concede while alleging the rules had been changed midstream. … It’s also giving me 2024 Nicolás Maduro vibes….

On October 4, Lula finished second with roughly 45.16% to Bolsonaro’s 47.03%. Three weeks later, the certified totals showed Lula at 51.79%, with about 64.3 million votes, and Bolsonaro at 48.21%.

I’m not going to go through all the math, but it appears that Lula gained 10,376,694 votes and won by 4,430,191.

Lula claims it was all about getting out the vote. Abstention did fall between rounds, and around three million more Brazilians voted in the runoff. There is also the matter that this was a two-man race, and other candidates complicated the numbers during the first round, taking a combined 9.317 million votes.

But there is still something fishy. For example, those extra candidates were generally to the right of Bolsonaro and even endorsed him after they lost. Are we to believe every single one of their voters suddenly thought Lula was a better option?

And then there’s the rule change. Just after the polls closed around 5 p.m., Supreme Federal Court Justice Cristiano Zanin extended voting nationwide by two hours. We already know that Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court is corrupt, but Zanin specifically was appointed to the court in 2023 by Lula. Oh yeah, and he was Lula’s personal defense attorney during el presidente’s corruption trial. He cited “transportation” issues and pointed out that some areas had reduced bus services. But the voting stations that were already closed couldn’t be reopened, so the extended voting was uneven across cities.

For what it’s worth, Bolsonaro had asked for extended voting hours in areas that were impacted by heavy rains, but Lula wanted the nationwide changes.

On election night, Flávio refused to concede, and rightfully so. He accused Lula’s side of changing the rules in the middle of the game and said he would seek an annulment of the vote. …

Confirmation:

On Monday, the younger Bolsonaro was visiting his father, Jair, when, he said, federal police stopped him and asked him to surrender his ordinary and diplomatic passports. He was also told he could not leave the country.

He says the order came from none other than Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. …Moraes, of course, is the justice who oversaw the investigation and conviction of Jair Bolsonaro on coup-plotting charges after the 2022 election. He was also sanctioned by Marco Rubio in July 2025 for “serious human rights abuse.” … The Trump administration also accused him of “abusing his authority, creating a censorship complex, [and] blatantly targeting political opponents.”

Glenn Greenwald points out the obvious:

If Bolsonaro had won last night’s election and then a pro-Bolsonaro judge sent the Federal Police to seize Lula’s passport and bar him from leaving the country … every major western media outlet and liberal NGOs would be screaming about the authoritarian attack on Brazil’s elections and the destruction of basic freedoms.

The victor has the guns and courts, and writes history.