Every great civilization that reached prosperity and peace eventually stopped having kids, then perished

Every great civilization that reached prosperity and peace eventually stopped having kids, then perished. By Camus.

The year is 50 BC. Julius Caesar is literally paying Roman citizens massive bonuses to have a third child. Rome — at the absolute peak of its power — is already dying from within.

  • Not from barbarians.
  • Not from lead pipes.
  • Not from decadence.

From empty cradles. Elon Musk just reminded everyone of the most overlooked pattern in history:

Every single great civilization that reached prosperity and peace… stopped having kids.

Ancient Greece (800–300 BC): exploding birth rates → Greek colonies from France to Crimea. Then safety + wealth arrived → birth rate collapsed → gone in a few centuries.

Rome: same story, just slower.

Elon’s ice-cold take: “The more prosperous and safe a civilization feels, the lower the birth rate drops. Abundance doesn’t create babies. It kills the urge to have them.”

2025 leaderboard of quietly disappearing countries:

  • South Korea: 0.72
  • Italy: 1.24
  • Spain: 1.23
  • Japan: 1.26
  • Germany: 1.36
  • Even USA: ~1.62 and still falling

All below the 2.1 replacement level. No invaders needed.

A society that stops replacing itself doesn’t get conquered.
It just fades out. Lights off. No one left to turn them back on.

Elon has been saying this louder than anyone for years: Falling birth rates are the single biggest existential threat to civilization today.

  • Bigger than war.
  • Bigger than climate.
  • Bigger than AI.

Because you can survive anything except not existing.

 

One clue is that more resources to young women lowers fertility, while more resources to young men raises fertility.

Another clue is that the costs of raising children nowadays makes it prohibitive to those who have a choice and are loathe to raise children in poverty. Maybe as a society gets richer and less threatened, the rich command an ever greater share of resources, thereby impoverishing the masses (whom they previously needed for security against outsiders). Today in the West the top 10% are doing quite well thank you, due to our money system, but everyone else is falling behind after inflation (seen housing prices lately?).