The all-cause, age-adjusted death rate is currently higher among the vaccinated than the unvaccinated. By Norman Fenton and Martin Neil. This counter-narrative result comes from the last six months of UK data. It’s a slightly technical post, so we will just pick out the conclusions.
In a previous post we argued that the most reliable long-term measure of Covid-19 vaccine effectiveness/safety is the age adjusted all-cause mortality rate.
If, over a reasonably prolonged period, fewer vaccinated people die, from whatever cause, including Covid-19, than unvaccinated people then we could conclude that the benefits of the vaccine outweigh the risks. We also pointed out that, to avoid the confounding effect of age, it is critical that data for each age category is available, rather than the aggregated data …
It turns out that, even using this age adjusted mortality rate, the death rate is currently higher among the vaccinated than the unvaccinated.
The age adjusted mortality rates for vaccinated against unvaccinated for weeks 1 to 26 of 2021 are charted below. Overall, the chart shows that, over time, the weighted mortality rate for the vaccinated has steadily increased and by week 16 (23 April 2021), surpassed that for the unvaccinated.
The chart suggests a normal seasonal mortality trend for the unvaccinated, with a winter peak on week 6, 12 February 2021, and a steady decline toward summer. In contrast, the pattern for the vaccinated is completely different.
The fully vaccinated death rate, age adjusted, gradually increased into summer!? Odd. Perhaps there is some innocent explanation, but these appear to be empirical results:
Because of the limitations and possible errors in the ONS data, there are many caveats that need to be applied to our crude analysis …
But we can conclude that the ONS’s own data does not support the claims made for vaccine effectiveness/safety.
This is worrying. We are fiddling with a complicated system — the human immune system — which we do not fully understand. It’s like non-mechanics fiddling with a car engine, or non-techies “fixing” an unfamiliar computer. “Unexpected” results can hardly be unexpected!
Nothing so far about the vaccines has been as promised or implied.
hat-tip Scott of the Pacific