The Virus: Mutate Around This

The Virus: Mutate Around This

by David Archibald

23 July 2021

 

The Israelis are disappointed in the result of vaccinating most of their population. Now we have some better detail on why. The coronavirus vaccines are an immunological Potemkin village:

 

 

The graph above of early data from Israel indicates that vaccine efficacy in preventing infection and symptomatic disease (mainly Pfizer-BioNTech) goes from 75-79% to 16% within four months against the Delta variant.

The graph shows efficacy by monthly cohort. Blue is the population who were vaccinated in January, orange in February, green in March and yellow is April. Purple is the average and can be ignored.

Efficacy against infection, asymptomatic and symptomatic, falls away rapidly. After six months (blue):

  • catching covid: 16% effective
  • mild symptoms: 16%
  • hospital: 82%
  • severe cases of covid: 86%.

The vaccines do provide some protection against hospitalization, and so far that doesn’t seem to be falling with time. But that is good news for the virus — it gets more opportunity to spread if it doesn’t kill its host. And every new host is a chance to mutate and make a more effective version of the Chicom bioweapon. The Delta variant has made a lot of progress to that end as shown by the following graphics:

 

 

The upper graphic shows the original virus, in terms of fatality rate (vertical axis) and the average number of people infected by each sick person (horizontal axis). The fatality rate is a log scale. So SARS is about twelve times more fatal than our bioweapon as released. Getting Bird Flu or Ebola is about sixty times as fatal.

The lower graphic shows that the Delta variant is halfway towards measles in terms of being infectious. That is a lot of progress in less than a year. The place where this weapon was concocted, China, is not going herd on the virus. Which means that if they ever do conquer the world, then they will not easily be able to visit their subject peoples. That’s their problem.

This is also a problem for Australia. If we can’t effectively vaccinate our troops serving abroad, say in fighting the evil Chicoms, there will be dreadful logistical problems in bringing them back to Australia.

The solution is the same as that found for HIV — a cocktail of antivirals, each contributing its own mode of action, possibly supported by vaccination. It will be like serving in the tropics and taking your antimalarial with you. The antivirals like ivermectin don’t need to recognize anything on the virus to work, as vaccines do. So the virus can’t mutate around them easily, especially when they are used in combination.

 

David Archibald is the author of The Anticancer Garden in Australia