Four Issues Explain the US Election. By Mene Ukueberuwa at The Free Press.

We developed surveys designed to uncover respondents’ “private” opinions — the beliefs they consider too sensitive to express openly. …

It all adds up to an electorate that is eager for a change but wary of both parties, though the details behind that mood are often surprising….

Affordablity:

58 percent of Americans publicly say they are having trouble affording daily necessities, but fewer than half say so privately. …

Affordability tops voters’ list of concerns, ahead of every other issue, as the cost of everyday life keeps straining household budgets, and few believe Trump has done much to improve their spending power. Voters appear to be penalizing the entire GOP for these economic conditions, and the best hope for many Republican candidates is the notion that Democrats are equally unpopular. …

Immigration:

49 percent of Hispanics privately support Trump’s immigration agenda, but only 29 percent do publicly. …

Among Asian respondents, 46 percent privately say Trump’s immigration policies have been good for the country, compared with 33 percent publicly. Among Hispanic respondents, the figures are even more divergent: 49 percent privately approve, compared with just 29 percent publicly.

The findings suggest that support for Trump’s immigration policies is more widespread in private than Americans are willing to acknowledge publicly. …

Wokeness:

Only 31 percent of Americans privately believe Democrats are too focused on cultural issues, yet 47 percent say so publicly. …

The significant gap suggests that Democrats may have partly overcome the reputation for being too “woke” that turned some voters off in 2024. …

War:

Both in public and in private, little more than a third of Americans believe it’s worthwhile to start a war to prevent an enemy from gaining nuclear weapons.

Republicans seem to have been lulled into inaction because they assumed the polls were just wrong. Not so, it seems. The Democrat victories are mostly large enough that cheating isn’t significant.