The vibeshift explained – uniparty politics is over. By The Noticer.

One Nation hasn’t quintupled its vote over the past year by saying or doing anything new, it’s saying the same things it’s said for years, at least for the past decade since Pauline Hanson returned to parliament. For all its faults, it is consistent, and Pauline Hanson is the most consistent politician in Australia.

The player hasn’t changed, the game has.

The answer to why this is happening is, therefore, not to be found in the player, but in the game. The rise of One Nation is a symptom, not a cause. …

So what changed?

One Nation’s brand of politics was being artificially suppressed by Big Tech until Musk and Zuckerberg reversed the post-2016 censorship agenda.

After Trump won the presidency and the Brexit vote up-ended British politics in social media fuelled populist revolts, the leftist establishment got together and concluded that they needed to stop people having the freedom to say things they didn’t like and talk themselves into voting against things they didn’t like, in order to save “democracy”. They concluded, correctly, that if people have the freedom to use social media to circumvent the mainstream press’s gatekeeping of political discourse, they might all talk themselves into patriotism and vote accordingly.

Less than three years on from Zuckerberg de-censoring Instagram and Facebook, and less than four after Musk de-censored X, “right-wing populist” parties have surged to lead the polls in Britain, France and Germany, and are now backed by a quarter of Europeans.

Australia is not special. We all use the same American social media sites used by our European cousins, we are subject to the same terms of service they are. The leftist establishment was literally screeching about how the restoration of free speech on social media would “threaten democracy” by enabling the populist right to win more votes, for the simple and obvious reason that in the absence of suppression it naturally gets more popular.

Why the move away from Liberal Party?

The voter base didn’t identify with what the Liberal Party was selling and then all of a sudden have a change of heart, they simply didn’t think there was a viable alternative to uniparty blue and uniparty red. They were demoralised and checked-out. This illusion of the two-party system was manufactured by mainstream media, an illusion which a couple of years of speaking freely on relatively uncensored social media shattered.

This was a somewhat inevitable process, because the actual policy preferences of right-leaning voters were radically out of sync with the manufactured “centre-right” consensus.

Polls reveal interesting trends:

The poll showed One Nation is pulling more votes than Labor from those who earn less than $45k/year. Labor, the traditional “party of the working class” is, however, 7% up on One Nation with voters earning more than $125k/year.

Objectively, One Nation is now the party of the White working class.

Meanwhile Labor has become the party of (non-White) immigrants, now winning only 23% of voters who speak no languages other than English in contrast to 39% of the vote from people who speak another language. …

The vibeshift:

The new right-wing base is increasingly secular and economic nationalist, and where they differ with the left is on immigration and race, not Jesus and tax policy. All they lacked was a way to form a critical mass around a political movement that actually represents them, so once Big Tech in America decided to turn off the woke censorship to get Trump re-elected, this vibeshift became inevitable.

One Nation’s policies remain far more popular than the party itself, the sky is the limit, and by sky I mean its own incompetence. It is a deeply unprofessional party, benefitting by default from a vibeshift it didn’t create.

But One Nation will remain the dominant electoral force on the Australian right for the foreseeable future unless another party comes along that can do One Nation’s brand of populism better than it can. Whether one can remains to be seen, but it won’t be the Liberal Party — no matter how hard they try we’ll never believe they’re sincere, nor should we.

As former PM Bob Hawke admitted after retiring from parliamentary politics in the early 1990s, there was “an implicit pact between the major parties to implement broad policies on immigration that they know are not generally endorsed by the electorate” and “they have done this by keeping the subject off the political agenda”.

Well, now it’s not just on the agenda, where you stand on it fundamentally defines what side of politics you’re on. The uniparty is over, the politics of identity has arrived.

Climate change is not the issue that created the vibeshift, though it contributed. The vibeshift occurred when mass third world immigration became too much and too obvious.