Iran War Update. Three interesting points of view.
AG:
I hope people understand what’s happening because it’s been the same story over and over again.
The Islamic Republic and their allies leak their preferred details as if they are agreed to western sources. Then when U.S. refuses to agree to those absurd terms and insists we stick to the deal that had already been under discussion, they claim the U.S. is backing out of the deal.
Then they blame America or Israeli influence for the lack of a deal instead of The Islamic Republic making unreasonable demands for a settlement after they lost the military fight and are facing an economic crisis.
We saw the same thing with Gaza repeatedly.
Let’s start with the most important point about the agreement President Trump is apparently about to sign with Iran. There were no good options. …
That’s what you get when you launch a strategic expedition on a tide of hubris and ignorance, a “little excursion” you insist will end in “four to five weeks” in “the unconditional surrender” of your enemy — an enemy so obdurate that it values its own existence far above the lives of its own people. …
It’s unfair to blame Mr Trump alone, because this strategic failure is not new for the US. It’s also what you get when you embroil yourself in another conflict in the greater Middle East based on a bleakly familiar combination of misjudgments: a massive underestimation of the enemy’s defensive capabilities and will to resist, and a massive overestimation of your own offensive capabilities and will to prosecute a costly war to a conclusion.
So, yes, negotiating the best deal was the right choice. What were the alternatives? Maintain the state of blockade and siege? That would have done greater harm to the US and world economy, with limited chance of success. Return to the bombing campaign? More costly depletion of munitions, jeopardizing our other military commitments, in exchange for reparable damage to Iran’s military infrastructure.
Escalation? That might have promised a more conclusive outcome. But how likely was it and at what cost?
The news media apparently forgot what it broadcast a couple of weeks ago: Iran’s oil storage capacity was nearing the red-line. If the wells have to be shut-in, such is the geology that it would wreck the oil fields themselves. Perhaps this is happening now. Nobody is reporting on it. But the news media doesn’t really report on anything. It opines. It spins. It constructs story-lines for advantage, it gaslights, it perverts the consensus about reality out of existence, it just plain lies.
If Iran is jerking the US around again, this will be the last time. They will prove to be negotiation-incapable, as the Russian phrase goes. They will punch their own express ticket back to the 12th century, lights out, bridges down across the rugged terrain, back to donkey carts, magic lamps, and vizeers instead of mullahs.
Outside of the participants, who knows?