How We Will Know When It’s Over

How We Will Know When It’s Over

by David Archibald

9 October 2018


The world hasn’t warmed as much as some predicted it would. The little bit of warming that has occurred in our lifetimes is easily explained by the increased solar magnetic field strength that we have lived through, relative to the experience of prior generations.

So how do warming catastrophists maintain the faith when the world we live in has failed them? The answer is that they contort their weltanschauung so that decreasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels can cause warming. In effect warming happens, and the punishment of mankind, no matter what.

From the blog Peak Oil Barrel, this post carries this figure in comments:

Figure 1: Loony notion that has temperature going up no matter what

With this explanatory text:

I’ve been thinking about that recent Schellnhuber paper about whether it’s possible to reach and maintain a stable, if hotter, intermediate temperature. My understanding is in the chart below. We are presently somewhere to the right of point B. If we go past point C, and may have already, then it’s not easy to quickly get back to point B by removing GHG [greenhouse gas] (the Earth has to be cooled somehow as well). If GHG keep getting added then we move up the big arrow and end up in a hothouse condition somewhere between E and F, and that’s probably the end for humans. If we remove GHG then we could get back to some intermediate condition D, which might be stable. To get back to the ice age (lower) branch we’d have to remove so much GHG we’d actually trip back to a glacial condition. D might be stable as, if the GHG is removed further, then the temperature increases and more GHG would be released from the earth sinks; so it’s a negative feedback (things get a bit fuzzy here). The main point is that the longer it’s left before anything is done the warmer D will be, this means more GHG would need to be removed to get to D but also the more GHG would have been released from the earth sinks, and the less chance of success there is. Therefore delaying action and allowing an overshoot makes things exponentially harder, and deniers, whose main aim is to procrastinate so they don’t have to take any personal responsibility or inconvenient actions, should be held accountable accordingly. D is not a good place to be (weather chaos) but better than E or F, and maybe the best, if slim, hope we have.

The author of that text has increased CO2 [carbon dioxide], causing the climate to come out of glaciations. His next step would be to explain why glaciations came along every 100,000 years or so over the last million years, and every 40,000 years or so in the two million years before that.

We don’t have to endure global warming, because it is a physical impossibility from CO2. But how long will we have to endure the wailing and inanities of the global warmers? What would help is a break in the slight uptrend in the temperature record. Now that HadCRUT has been discredited we are left the UAH satellite record from Dr Roy Spencer. The satellites have been up for almost 40 years. What can be divined from their record is shown in the following figure:


Figure 2: Climate bounds from the UAH temperature record


The green line is the lower bound of the satellite temperature record. Five points establish that line. The chance of this being a random happenstance is infinitesimally small. Perhaps the lower bound is caused by a negative feedback established by Richard Lindzen’s iris effect. The upper bound, shown by the orange line, is penetrated by large El Nino events. Our current climatic uptrend channel is 0.8°C wide and rising at 0.1°C per decade. The result for September 2018 was 0.3°C above the lower bound.

As Nir Shaviv pointed out, the oceans are a precise calorimeter. Each day the Sun sends a pulse of heat deep into the oceans, with the amount varying with cloud cover. As the following figure from Professor Humlum (see the Oceans tab) of Argo temperature for a transect across the North Atlantic at 59°N shows, heating occurs to at least 400 metres:


Figure 3: Time-depth temperature diagram along 59 N, 0-800 m depth, across the North Atlantic Current.


The cumulative effect of the daily heat pulse means that temperature can still be going up even as solar activity is going down as long as thermal equilibrium hasn’t been reached for a particular level of solar activity. It looks like we are headed for a record neutron flux for the instrument record in about two years. So, according to Svensmark theory, the clouds will have their albedo effect.

For people who haven’t gone out of their way to understand climate science, global warming theory remains plausible while the Earth’s temperature is still in uptrend.  A break of the lower green bounding line in Figure 2 would mean that the warming period is over. Not long to go now.


David Archibald is the author of American Gripen: The Solution to the F-35 Nightmare