Ebb Tide in Texas

by David Archibald

6 February 2025

 

The following spectacular chart started a line of inquiry. To have such an abrupt change of trend, from a meandering rise changing to a straight-line decline in oil production, accompanied by a blowout in the gas to oil ratio, means that there is an underlying process that is happening county-wide:

 

Figure 1: Howard County Gas/Oil Ratio 2010 – 2024

 

Since that break of trend, Howard County’s oil production rate has been declining 150,000 barrels per day or 40% per annum:

 

Figure 2: Howard County Daily Oil and Gas Production

 

Howard County’s oil production tipped over into decline 18 months ago while gas production went sideways. Gas production is now also declining rapidly.

We have established that the same relationship seen in Howard County also holds for Texas’ other major producing counties in this article. This methodology can also used as a predictive tool, starting with Midland County.

 

Figure 3: Midland County Gas/Oil Ratio 2010 – 2024

 

While not as definitive as Howard County, the gas/oil ratio in Midland County has broken its lower bound.

 

Figure 4: Midland County Oil and Gas production 2010 – 2024

 

Midland County’s oil and gas production profiles have diverged whereas in Howard County oil production fell as gas production went sideways.

 

Figure 5: Midland County Daily Oil Production 2010 – 2024

 

Howard County’s production decline for the last 12 months has been 40% or 151,000 barrels per day. Applying a decline of 30% per annum to Midland County’s production profile results in a production decline of 185,000 barrels per day over the next 12 months.

 

Figure 6: Martin County Gas/Oil Ratio 2010 – 2024

 

Martin County is the second largest oil-producing county in Texas after Midland. This chart of Martin County’s gas/oil ratio shows a clear break of uptrend.

 

Figure 7: Martin County Oil and Gas Production 2010 – 2024

 

As is seen in Midland County profile, gas production has diverged from oil production with gas production increasing due to a high gas/oil ratio despite falling oil production.

 

Figure 8: Martin County Oil Production 2010 – 2024

 

Now that Martin County’s oil production has tipped over into decline and applying a annual decline rate of 30%, production is projected to decline 190,000 barrels per day over the next 12 months.

Summary

President Trump has undertaken to increase US oil production by three million barrels per day. That is a heroic task given that he is facing a headwind of a half million barrel per day decline this year from three counties in Texas alone.

My advice to the President is to start talking about a plutonium breeder reactor rollout, combined with synthetic fuel production applying the Bergius process to the country’s coal reserves.

 

David Archibald is the author of The Anticancer Garden in Australia.