Iran’s Food Supply

by David Archibald

7 March 2026

 

The supply of oil and LNG leaving the Persian Gulf has been interrupted. So has the supply of food going in. As we wait for Iran to tap the mat, are they in any danger of starvation? It doesn’t look like it. This is the composition of the Iranian diet on a calorific basis:

Wheat products                    50%

Rice                                        12%

Sugar                                      10%

Vegetable oils                       10%

Meat, dairy, eggs                  15%

Fruit and vegetables            Negligible

The graph following is of the supply of Iran’s major food sources from 1960 to 2024:

 

 

Over that time, Iran’s population went from about 20 million to 93.1 million. Per capita wheat consumption is 182 kg per annum, which is close to 500 grams per day. Most of the imported soybeans and soybean meal imports would be going to feeding chickens and livestock. Currently 40% of the inputs to its food supply system are imported.

Iran holds strategic stocks of four million tonnes of wheat amongst total cereal stocks of 12 million tonnes. This is enough for four months of consumption. The Iranian government had better step up importing now to ensure continuity of food supply to their population, who hates them. Otherwise, desperate people could become yet more desperate. As the saying goes, there are only seven meals between civilisation and anarchy.

Having attacked most of its neighbours on its western flank, and with the Straits of Hormuz closed to shipping, Iran’s best chance of resupply is from Russia via the Caspian Sea. This should be easily doable. Kazakhstan, a big wheat producer, is also on the Caspian Sea.

The belligerents on the western side of the Persian Gulf could be resupplied by trucking across Saudi Arabia from the Red Sea, some 1,200 km, or by a similar distance from the Omani coast. They are also in not much danger of food shortages if they act quickly.

There is one development in the Iran War that is quite pertinent to Australia. The Israeli hit on President Khamenei that started the war used air-launched Silver Sparrow missiles. These were carried on the inner wing pylons of F-15s, weigh 1.9 tonnes and have a range of 2,000 km. In the final part of their trajectory, they come straight down, because that is where defence radars are weakest in their coverage.

The strike confirms the 1 km of range for 1 kg of missile weight relationship. With a passive maritime seeker head (radio frequency and infrared, no radar), this means that Australian strike aircraft could have a 2,000 km stand-off range to PLA Navy warships. The missiles could be programmed to come down vertically in to the patch of vertical launch system cells forward of the bridge. It doesn’t matter that the missile might have a small warhead, the target is quite delicate.

Indonesia recently reneged on the purchase of 24 F-15EX to go off and chase some other aircraft. We should put our hand up to take those 24 F-15EX. With a combat radius of 2,000 km married up to a missile with a 2,000 km range, the combination will be able to sink ships in the Taiwan Strait, and everywhere in between, after being launched from Darwin.  This is quite a positive development. We just have to seize the opportunity.

Tehran food prices up to 16th March, 2026

David Archibald is the author of American Gripen: The Solution to the F-35 Nightmare.