Covid, Fertility, and AMH Levels

by David Archibald

11 May 2024

 

The fertility rate in Australia continues to drop, mirroring what is happening in the US, which currently has headlines such as this:

What could be causing it? Well, a lot of the time correlation leads us to causation.

The drop in birth rates started with covid in 2020, after the initial spurt in births due to the lockdowns. Each covid infection gives all the organs a whacking, shortening telomeres and doing other dreadful stuff. But what does it do to the ovaries? In January this year there was a paper out that found that a covid infection, on average, reduced a woman’s Anti Mullerian Hormone (AMH) level by 0.24 ng/ml.

AMH is a glycoprotein produced by ovarian follicles. The AMH level is a predictor of ovarian reserve and thus the ability to conceive. AMH is the only reproductive hormone that is not influenced by different states of the menstrual cycle. It peaks in the early twenties.

First the anecdotal evidence:

I got confirmation today of almost total infertility today due to covid and not cured auto-immunity for four years. We can still try something but I am totally destroyed, I could not imagine I could suffer more than this. This is the most painful thing ever. I am also furious.

Americans are being infected by covid once a year on average. Let’s apply that to the known decline in AMH to see what is likely to happen. The result of that exercise is in this graphic:

 

Figure 1: Modelled effect of annual covid infections on ovarian reserve as measured by AMH level

 

The blue line is the natural decline from the age of 18. AMH drops to a low level in the early forties and after that it becomes increasing difficult to conceive. The red line is the modeled effect of annual covid infections from the age of 20. Fertility is over by the early thirties. A lot of women are delaying having children until their thirties. They are likely to find that babies and annual covid infections are mutually exclusive. You can have one or the other but not both. Your body, your choice, as they say.

It is a similar story for annual covid infections starting from the age of 30. In effect, annual covid infections halve the remaining years of a woman’s fertility. So what happens to girls who get their first covid infection as a baby, then in kindergarden, then in primary school and so on? A female is born with all her eggs, and they are getting whacked by periodic covid infections. They may not get to the starting line.

This matter requires close attention. Our civilisation depends upon it.

 

David Archibald is author of The Anticancer Garden in Australia.