The State of the World
by David Archibald, author of Australia’s Defence, Twilight of Abundance, and American Gripen: The Solution to the F-35 Nightmare
26 October 2016
A generation ago it was thought that a permanent peace had settled on the world. Respected historian Francis Fukuyama called it “the end of history” and put out a book of that name. Another historian, Samuel Huntington, was of the opinion that the end of the ideological conflict with communism would mean that more traditional demons would be unleashed — civilizational and tribal conflict. It turns out that Professor Huntington was the prescient one and the pace of conflict is picking up. Let’s look at the state of play.
Huntington reckoned the most important borders were between the nine civilizations
Hillary Clinton is one of the most venal creatures ever to seek the presidency of the United States. Beyond her amorality, criminality and so on, Mrs Clinton hates ordinary Americans, according to the chairman of her presidential campaign. When Donald Trump said in one of the debates that she would be in jail if he became president, few watching doubted that there was good cause for jail time for her misdeeds. By reputation, Mrs Clinton is a remorseless killer of people whose continued existence is inconvenient to her.
If her opponent in seeking the presidency wins, he will be learning on the job. He has foreshadowed making US allies shoulder more of the burden of mutual defense. He has said that he would understand them acquiring nuclear weapons in doing so. And so it shall come to pass. Expect a lot more nuclear-armed states at the end of the first term of a Trump presidency.
It is easy enough to blame President Obama for the cluelessness of his foreign policy stances and decisions over the last eight years. Actually the rot set in between the first and second Bush presidencies. Bush senior deliberately did not press on into Iraq after Operation Desert Storm in 1991 in order to leave the Iraqi Army as a force in being and the Iraqi regime, no matter how odious, in place. That included letting the Iraqi Army crush a Shia uprising in the south of the country. The second Bush presidency sought out places to invade and practice some nation-building. Even second tier players indulged themselves, and thus the UK and France thought that regime change in Libya would be a fun thing to do.
It should not be forgotten that Putin was the instigator of blowing up entire residential highrise apartments and killing the sleeping residents, so as to be able to claim it was done by Chechens, after which he could run a law-and-order campaign. Russia is opportunistically irredentist under President Putin, but not really the problem it is portrayed to be.
President Xi is a Stalinist who is consolidating power, using the excuse of a anti-corruption campaign to execute thousands of political opponents. Of course, as per Stalin’s dictum, it doesn’t matter whether he killed just one opponent or thousands. The Chinese throne is drenched in blood and this is the nature of the state, which is also true of Russia and the United States. China’s irredentism is a foundation of the regime legitimacy and is of a scale that could start a world war. In the final analysis, Chinese aggression is simply Han Chinese racism.
The Islamic world is, well, being Islamic — killing, murdering, torturing, burning and bombing other Muslims and anyone else who gets in their crazy way. There is no end to this. There can only be localised ceasefires. Eventually the United States will tire of propping up the regime in Afghanistan and the Taliban will overrun the country again. As shown by the Islamic State regime, the requirements of ideological purity in the recreated Islamic sanctuary of Afghanistan will result in more terror attacks on Western Civilization. The solution to that problem is the obvious solution that Mr Trump first thought of — don’t let any Muslims into the country. Islamic countries themselves are already adopting Mr Trump’s solution with respect to Mexico – building walls.
President Duterte is a Filipino politician who could have become wealthy through corruption, in the manner of the Clintons. Instead he decided to rid his country of the drug scourge, in the most cost-efficient way available. It is no wonder that he was elected president — the voters had no doubt whose side he was on and whether or not his word meant anything. Also, doubtless, he has saved many lives which otherwise would have been ruined by drugs. For this he was criticized by the Obama regime. His reaction to that has encouraged Chinese irredentism and the size of the task to be shouldered by the United States in countering that irredentism.
As our Prime Minister says, it is an exciting time to be alive. There is going to be plenty of history being made in the next presidential term. There may also be the need to heed the Prime Minister’s other bit of advice about the importance of being agile.