Where are the deaths? Ten reasons the first and second Covid waves look so different
By Jo Nova
Knowledge is power.
The Worldometer graphs suggested the problem was over. But many factors were driving the curve, and to beat the virus we need to understand them. Unfortunately, as winter arrives, Vitamin D is falling (though it doesn’t have to be this way), and the infections will spread from younger people to older people — so the hospitalizations and deaths will grow too. It won’t get as bad as it was, because doctors know more, and people who wear masks and distance themselves appear to get milder infections.
It’s a crime that doctors, academics and the media are not pointing out the benefits of Vitamin D.
Ten reasons death rates were lower in Europe’s second wave:
Demographics: In the second wave young people are the most likely to be infected, not high risk older folk (so far).
Vitamin D : reaches a peak each year in August and Sept.
Hospitals are not overrun (yet). That’s just starting to change.
Temperatures were warmer: Viruses are unstable chemical codes. Thanks to basic chemistry, higher doses of virus will almost always survive longer in cooler air and on cooler surfaces. As temperatures cool, we’d expect higher doses to be transmitted which means a more severe illness. Cheap heating saves lives!
Social distancing: Bigger distances and outdoor events mean lower viral doses. But as the seasons cool, we spend more time indoors, which means higher doses as they get closer together.
UV light was stronger — A great outdoor sterilizer. UV also helps create Vitamin D. Obviously, it’s a summer time thing.
More testing in the second wave. Germany is doing 3 times as many tests; France, seven times, and the UK is doing 15 times as many tests now as it was in early April. A lot of the first wave caseload was simply missed. There is roughly a three week lag from tests until mortality (and it can be up to 8 weeks). This wasn’t apparent in many countries in the first wave because they didn’t do enough testing to show the true extent of infections — they missed the entire first peak, only starting to record new daily cases numbers properly as the deaths also peaked.
Mutations? Perhaps the virus has changed to be less deadly. This — our favourite option — the one we all want, may be true, but there is no genetic analysis that supports it yet so who knows?. If it is the case, we ought find a reliable genetic shift that correlates with lower viral loads and healthier patients. But natural selection favours a higher viral load and a more easily spread virus, and that’s what the few mutation studies seem to suggest.
Look closely at the infections and deaths and with a three week lag (and the OurWorldInData site). It’s clear where this is going.
In the UK, there were around 6,000 new cases a day from Sept 27th. Last week there were about 140 deaths a day. Assuming the three week lag is accurate, that’s a rough fatality rate among the known cases of 2%. The real fatality rate is significantly lower than that, though how much?
A total of 353 counties in 29 U.S. states have 1.8 million more registered voters than eligible voting-age citizens, according to an analysis by Judicial Watch.
In addition, eight states, including Alaska, Colorado, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Vermont, were found to have statewide registered voter totals that exceeded 100 percent of eligible voters, according to the nonprofit government watchdog.
Judicial Watch compared the registration data available for 37 states with the U.S. Census Bureau’s most recently available American Community Survey (ACS) numbers for the period 2014–2018 on a county-by-county basis.
“This new study shows 1.8 million excess, or ‘ghost’ voters, in 353 counties across 29 states,” said Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton in a statement announcing the study Oct. 16. “This data highlights the recklessness of mailing blindly ballots and ballot applications to voter registration lists. Dirty voting rolls can mean dirty elections.”
States are required under a federal law approved in 1993 to make all reasonable efforts to maintain updated voter registration rolls, but enforcement of the statute was almost nonexistent until recent years when Judicial Watch began suing individual states.
Why haven’t conservative governments made sure this doesn’t happen?
“We want all our kids, all our children, black and white, every single corner of this country, to better understand our history so our children have a true sense of belonging within British culture,” she said.
Badenoch rejected the claims, insisting that history in schools “is not colonised”.
“We should not apologise for the fact that British children primarily study the history of these islands, and it goes without saying that the recent fad to decolonise maths, decolonise engineering, decolonise the sciences that we’ve seen across our universities to make race the defining principle of what is studied is not just misguided but actively opposed to the fundamental purpose of education,” she said.
Part of the problem is plain ignorance. Most Millennials were hardly alive when Ronald Reagan called the Soviet Union an “evil empire”.
According to the CIS poll, only 26 per cent of Millennials are familiar with Vladimir Lenin and 34 per cent with Joseph Stalin. Only 21 per cent of those questioned said they knew well who Mao was. Never mind that these men were responsible for the deaths of tens of millions and the impoverishment of hundreds of millions.
Whatever excuse explains Millennials’ ignorance of communism, they should at least know about Venezuela where the socialist regime of the past two decades has led to repression, an economy in free fall, widespread disease and starvation and mass emigration.
Tom Switzer is executive director of the Centre for Independent Studies and presenter at the ABC’s Radio National.
Time to say “No” to failure says Joanne Nova:
Here’s a radical idea, no child should get a high school certificate if they can’t answer the question “which political party caused the most deaths in the last 100 years”? The answer starts with C, and if you say Capitalism you have to repeat a year, and so do your teachers.
Only one in five people aged 25-39 in Australia are familiar with Mao, Stalin and Lenin.
We’ve seen this all three times before. As soon as skeptics expose enough scandals in The Australian the BOM has to run and hide behind a “major revision”, a panel, or a review. It’s their pass-out-of-class to not answer questions. It’s too late, I have no expectation that this will achieve anything other than being the excuse de jour for the BOM to keep operating as a PR machine rather than a scientific agency.
The whole national warming trend from 1910 is supposedly about one degree. But up to two-thirds of Australia’s warming may be due to “adjustments”, not “CO2″. The most cost effective way to stop Australia warming is to dump the BOM and set up a scientific agency instead. It’s a lot cheaper than crippling our electricity grid and destroying our manufacturing base.
Five years after the Wonderbar ACORN dataset was released, none of these errors have been fixed. The BOM never said “thanks for helping”, showed no interest in doing a better job, won’t release either methods or comparison data.Now, lo, in a third round, a few articles in The Australian (and total silence from Fairfax and the ABC) and wouldn’t-you-know but the bureau has suddenly discovered that majorly-revised “best quality” isn’t good enough and they need to aim for doubly-revised ultra-super-HQ. Sure.
Read about the other three rounds of scandal, review, nothing-to-see-here-report by the Australian BOM which runs on a million dollars a day. The situation is so absurd, skeptics are talking of setting up their own recording stations.
A POLICY motion about Western Australia seceding has passed at the Liberal state conference, despite one party member warning there was a risk of being labelled the “lunatic fringe”.
The non-binding “WAxit” policy motion put forward by the Brand division called for the establishment of a committee “to examine the option of WA becoming an independent state within the Commonwealth”.
After hot debate on Sunday, the motion was amended to becoming “financially independent”….
Western Australia gets only a third of the GST back that it pays into the Federal pool. No other state has ever received less than 80%. The Constitution says that each states minerals are its own, but when WA digs its minerals up the other states effectively hep themselves to the revenues via the GST. Meanwhile pristine Tasmania doesn’t allow much mining, oh no.
If WA Senators voted as a block and withheld support until this issue was resolved, it would have been fixed years ago. Current WA Federal (and some state) politicians appear to put their political party ahead of the interests of West Australians.
That’s not a situation that can last.
At least the local state party appears to recognize that (finally).
A West Australian reader comments:
Let’s get off the sinking ship while we can — Australia is disintegrating into a multicultural disaster, like the rest of the West. It’s no longer “One Nation” in any case. Does anyone who has visited Lakemba really believe Australia is a unitary state?
Western Australia has the best chance of surviving as a historically recognizable, stable and democratic Australia. This means including taking migrants compatible with our own civilization – and get a rugby team to boot! Excuse the pun….people will say we are not defensible. Maybe not, but we have a better chance of surviving outside the crumbling American empire which is about to embark on more ultimately catastrophic conflicts in Asia.
I am being provocative, but if things continue down the European path it may become a more attractive option to many people .
Bowing to the God of Political Correctness, Macquarie Dictionary has just named “Fake News” as Word of the Year.
In real English, “Fake news” is two words, otherwise known as a phrase. Separately both words have real and easy-to-understand meanings. Together they have become the the latest meaningless slur as the mainstream media realize they are losing power and influence to the real news on blogs and in the alt-media. The old-media is trying to stop the bleed by labeling the new media as “fake”. Instead of namecalling, the old-media could win easily if it just reported the real news.
If any Macquarie products are on your back-to-school booklists, buy something else. Who wants to teach our kids fake English?