Ukraine War Update, late April 2023. By Jim Dunnigan. It’s hard getting past the fantasy propaganda flying around the Internet, but this guy has a good track record in hindsight.
The Russian economy has not collapsed because of Western sanctions, but those have crippled production of tanks, war planes and all weapons and munitions in general. Russian GDP shrank by about five percent while the number of Russians living below the poverty line reached 60 percent. …
Russia has little economic support from anyone while Ukraine is backed by the NATO nations, which account for about half the world GDP. Putin is more frequently resorting to psychological warfare, trying to come up with something that will scare NATO into backing off on their support for Ukraine. Nothing seems to work for Putin and the sanctions have forced him to export oil via smuggling that led to huge discounts. …
Russian arms manufacturers are unable to fill many orders because sanctions have halted imports of key components. …
Despite all this, Putin believes time is on his side and that NATO nations will tire of supporting Ukraine and Ukrainians will become less willing to fight if Putin waits long enough. …
Bakhmut: a six to one loss ratio is believable considering the unsupported infantry attacks over open ground.
Russia was desperate for some kind of victory in Ukraine and this led to the Battle for Bakhmut, a town in Donetsk province. Using frontal assaults, often without artillery or armor support, against entrenched Ukrainian defenders, the Russians suffered horrific losses. Most of the Russian dead were untrained and poorly led recent recruits. …
Most recent Russian losses occurred in Donetsk province where Russian attacks on Bakhmut (for eight months) and Vuhledar (five months) have cost Russia 30,000 dead, hundreds of combat vehicles and several hundred thousand 152mm artillery shells. Most of the fighting and losses were in Bakhmut. Ukrainian losses were far less at about 5,000 dead.
These heavy Russian losses and little territorial gain have further demoralized Russian troops, so a growing number are refusing to go to Ukraine or fight if they do end up there. In past wars, soldiers who refused to fight could be killed by their officers to encourage the others. That doesn’t work anymore because the Russian troops are armed and see themselves trapped between two groups (Ukrainians and Russian officers) trying to kill them. Few veteran, pre-invasion Russian troops are in Ukraine. Most have been killed, disabled by wounds or quit the military. The “quit” option was recently outlawed …
Will the Ukrainian offensive amount to much?
This offensive is much larger than the one in mid-2022 that cleared the Russian out of Kharkiv, where Ukraine had four brigades attacking. The current one involves nine brigades and is in the southeast. These brigades are in much better shape than any of the Russian units they will face. Russia has no comparable forces and is using a lot of smaller units that have suffered losses and not had any time to rebuild and train.
Most Russian troops have been recently mobilized and have less training and equipment. Morale is low and most men do not want to be in Ukraine. In contrast, the Ukrainian troops are better prepared and confident that they will prevail.
Ukrainian tactics avoid attacks on heavily defended urban areas and instead surround Russian forces and cut their access to resupply or reinforcements. The reality is that Russia has fewer troops in Ukraine and these have far fewer tanks and other combat vehicles. The Ukrainian troops are better trained, armed, led and motivated than their Russian adversaries. …
Russians on the defensive, building fortifications:
Russian state-controlled media now discusses “freezing” military efforts in Ukraine. In other words, going on the defensive and concentrating on holding onto Russian-occupied territory in Ukraine. Russian leader Vladimir Putin is seriously considering the “freeze” option and prolonging the war until Western support for Ukraine diminishes along with Ukrainian morale. To avoid that, Ukraine is on the offensive against demoralized Russian troops. …
Russian goals dialed way, way down:
A year ago, it was to conquer all of Ukraine, now it is to hang onto the remaining Ukrainian territory they occupy and perhaps grab some more if an opportunity presents itself. …
Russian had shot off its reserves of cold war artillery shells:
Russian reserves of 152mm artillery munitions are exhausted and production facilities in Russia are unable to supply a significant number of additional shells. Russia received 300,000 shells from Iran and a similar amount from North Korea….
NATO nations have provided Ukraine with over a million 155mm shells and a smaller quantity of 152mm shells. NATO nations have more production capabilities for artillery shells but not enough to keep the Ukrainians supplied with what they need.
This means that both Ukrainian and Russian forces have less artillery ammunition than they need. This favors the Ukrainians, who’s attacking forces will face less artillery fire while they are advancing and out in the open.
The Institute for the Study of War on the crucial role of artillery:
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin threatened to withdraw Wagner forces from Bakhmut if the Russian military command fails to provide more ammunition to the Wagner mercenaries. …
Prigozhin stated that Wagner needs about 80,000 [a typo, should be 8,000] shells per day — its previous shell allowance prior to apparent Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) efforts to reduce Wagner’s influence. Prigozhin added that Wagner is only receiving 800 of the 4,000 shells per day that it is currently requesting.
