The Painful Reality of Trump the Candidate. By Rod Thomson.
Everyone fighting to save America from the destruction of the Democratic Left needs to face up to some realities. Realities that will be hard to swallow. They are for me, after voting for President Trump twice and believing, as I do, that the 2020 election was at least rigged, and possibly stolen. …
A cold, steely-eyed examination of this moment is essential. …
First, the only way a Trump candidacy makes sense is if indeed the 2020 election was stolen, which means that illegal actions were taken in violation of state laws in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan — all states that flipped from 2016 to 2020 but were close and were known to have shenanigans in 2020. …
If Trump honestly lost in 2020, fair and square at the ballot box, then there is no argument for him being the nominee again.
So for our sober, unemotional analysis, let’s operate on the assumption that 2020 was stolen, and also assume based on all precedents that election results must be very close in a state for Democratic cheating to work, and then proceed with our dispassionate analysis.
Each one of those states is in either the same position it was in 2020, or has shifted to Democrats.
- Arizona had a Republican governor and attorney general. It now has a Democratic governor and attorney general. If it were truly stolen in 2020 under the noses of Republicans, why would anyone believe it would not be more easily stolen again in 2024 under the control of Democrats?
- Pennsylvania has become more liberal in its power structure. Michigan is entirely Democrat now in Lansing. So Philadelphia and Detroit will remain cesspools of corruption that will provide however many votes are needed for a Democratic victory (if it is close) even if it means kicking out Republican observers and covering the windows in the vote-counting offices.
- Wisconsin remains in Republican hands, but conservatives just lost the state Supreme Court …
- Georgia is the best possible case, as it has tightened its election laws some… But the Republican governor and secretary of state were brutally criticized, mocked and ultimately alienated by Trump for 2020. It’s not likely they will go to the mat for him in a general election. …
So realistically, if the very first objective is to eject Democrats from the White House, what path forward do supporters of Trump as the Republican nominee see? I would love to hear how this electoral mountain is overcome. Because those states need winning.
One reasonable retort is that these states will try to cheat regardless of the GOP nominee. Almost assuredly. But remember our assumption that the results must be close, within less than a percentage point, for Democrats to flip it. In all of the states we are talking about except Michigan, that appears to have been the case in 2020. Historically in elections where there has been evidence or suspicion of Democratic cheating in races, it’s often been much tighter than that.
Polls:
The evidence in polling and in 2022 election results is that Trump remains popular among Republicans, particularly with the indictment farce playing out in New York, but he is less popular than ever among a critical mass of independent and swing voters. …
Trump’s going to lose:
Unless someone can prove the logic of this electoral map and election cheating analysis is wrong, Trump’s pathway to winning the general election in 2024 looks almost impossible.
Maybe. Given that he will also now be framed as a criminal (polls say only 40% think the charges are merely political nonsense), the Democrats really, really want to run against Trump.
Any election involving Trump will be all about Trump, not about policies. Republicans win on policies.
Or maybe the voting machines are rigged. Really, Biden got way more votes that anyone in history, including Obama?
