Covid Scorecard: Excess Deaths 2020-22. By David Evans.
There are some silly and blatantly wrong numbers floating around that purport to show Sweden did better than anyone with covid — but they are just ideologically-inspired nonsense. See “Sweden Wins!“, which gives no source for its figures, and the accompanying lame defence/apology/walkback here.
|Excess Deaths||Population (m)||Excess Deaths per million pop||Covid deaths per million pop|
|South Africa||278,902||60.8||4,591||1,686||Some ivermectin|
Excess death figures are uncertain estimates, and of course the covid death figures are often inaccurate too.
But no, Sweden didn’t win, by any measure. Considering that they have a headstart by being the country where the most people live alone — most covid is caught at home — they did about on par with the other western countries that didn’t close their borders and went the vaccine route.
No super obvious lessons here, but tentatively:
- Closing borders helped (by avoiding original and delta, with mass exposure only to omicron).
- Ivermectin helped, especially preventatively, but India, Indonesia and South Africa only used it partially.
- Strong lockdowns worked in Asia.
- Smaller countries (i.e. less population) did better.
Australia is an interesting case because it mostly kept out original covid and delta, is the most heavily vaccinated country, and vaccinated before covid spread — many of its excess deaths are indisputably from vaccines.
There is no data on costs, so the cost-benefit balance of the various strategies cannot be assessed from this sort of analysis.