Donald Trump is preparing to announce for the 2024 presidential nomination [Nov 14 the likely date, according to the NY Post]…
I have often said that Trump was a very good president — our best, rather easily, since Ronald Reagan. Unfortunately, though, that isn’t the end of the story. He has both said and, less often, done, a lot of stupid things. He now carries this legacy of mistakes behind him like a ball and chain. Of course the Democrats’ attacks on Trump are mostly unfair when they are not fabricated. But there is a reason why half of America’s voters won’t even consider voting for Trump in 2024. I think it is safe to say that no successful candidate has ever begun with that sort of handicap.
The Democrats are lying in wait, hoping Republicans are dumb enough to nominate Trump. They are even planning a special counsel to investigate Trump full-time if he runs in 2024. … These investigations are mostly rubbish. Yet, unfortunately, Trump did make serious mistakes both in connection with the January 6 demonstration, for which I criticized him at the time, and with regard to his sloppy handling of classified files post-presidency, which may technically have risen to the level of a crime. …
Beyond Trump’s fatal flaws, basic considerations apply. Voters want to look forward, not back. This is why political parties don’t nominate the guy who lost last time. … And no one wants another 80+ year old president. …
Joe Biden will not, of course, be the Democrats’ nominee. They will go with someone much younger, as they did with Bill Clinton in 1992.
The conservative movement … [has] several excellent presidential candidates, while the Democrats have none. There is only one way we can throw away our advantage: by nominating an elderly man who is already discredited in the eyes of at least half of American voters, and who through his own blunders has laid himself open to endless legal investigation and harassment.
I think that nearly any Republican can win the presidency in 2024, with one exception. I think Donald Trump would lose.
Strategically, I think Trump’s role should be as a “fleet in being” to distract the Democrats while a new, surprise candidate is positioned to destroy them. But I don’t think that Trump has the inclination to play that role.
Now I’d be happy to support him if he were the nominee, and I’d love it if he won and stuck it to the “cabal” that elected Biden.
But I’d rather have 8 years of, say, DeSantis than 4 years of Trump. I don’t think you can fix things in 4 years. 4 years of Trump followed by 8 years of DeSantis would be great, but how likely is that, really?