Russia Has Already Lost the War and the Map of the World Is Being Redrawn Because of It. By Rick Moran.
No matter what happens in Ukraine going forward, a weakened Russia cannot “win” in any conventional sense of the word. They may gain a little territory, but at such a horrific cost in money, men, and prestige that their status as a “superpower” will be questioned — even though their nuclear stockpile will (hopefully) remain intact.
Russia is bleeding. Sanctions are destroying the economy. Its aggressive actions and alleged war crimes have cost it much goodwill built up over the decades of Putin’s reign. Its military has shown itself to be far less capable than NATO believes. …
Simply put, the situation cannot be retrieved. But Ukraine is in no mood to negotiate. Why should they when they’re winning? So Putin is caught in the aggressor’s trap — overextended and with no way out.
It’s not just Turkey that is “recalculating” the power equation in their part of the world. Moldova is asking to join NATO, as is Ukraine. Other former Soviet states that Putin wanted to gather under a new Soviet-style empire are finding more room to maneuver with Russia’s attention occupied elsewhere. Georgia, which fought a war against Putin in 2008, could take advantage of Russia’s weakness to gain more independence of action. …
We sometimes turn up our noses at the idea of “soft power,” But if you look at soft power as an hourglass, Putin has virtually emptied Russia’s share. He still has guns, tanks, and weapons of mass destruction, but without influence and prestige, they aren’t good for much except threatening Armageddon.
With Europe seeking out new sources of energy, whatever hold Putin thought he had on Western Europe has disappeared, and the economic hardships coming Russia’s way this winter and beyond threaten his hold on power. The biggest danger now is that Putin, seeing his vision and his world crumbling, will want a Götterdämmerung that would bring down the Russian state and take the rest of us with him.
[Putin’s] invasion of Ukraine is already a strategic loss. Russia is weakened economically, politically, and militarily. …
The Russian military’s failures and resort to widespread atrocities have exposed Moscow’s conventional military capabilities as a Potemkin force. We can only imagine what the Chinese are thinking today about their de facto ally — or how the Turkish general staff is now recalculating Ankara’s strategic options in the Black Sea region and beyond. If Putin were to follow through on his threat to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, it would only compound his strategic defeat. …
Russia is not withdrawing so much as it is deflating. Consequently, there is a kind of giant geopolitical sucking sound all around Russia’s periphery — from Eastern Europe to Central Asia — as a diminished Russia creates a vacuum that could unsettle an already fragile status quo. …
Since Putin came to power, his progressively authoritarian regime has attempted to project Russian power all throughout the former Soviet space. His policies have been fueled by a combination of a desire to reassert control over the Soviet Union’s former territories, which he doesn’t see as legitimate or fully sovereign states, and his deeply held fear that democratic awakenings in any of them might be contagious.
Perhaps the surge of newly mobilized Russian troops will stabilize the war, and the Ukrainians will not be able to make further territorial gains. But without enough experienced troops, enough equipment and ammunition, air superiority, or high-tech weapons, nor will Russia be able to make territorial gains. Stalemate, perhaps starting in a couple of months.
If so, both sides will realize further fighting will gain them nothing. Both sides are exhausted and impoverished. Then they might be ready for some peace talks and a dirty compromise. Maybe.
