It is shocking how ordinary challenges of existence suddenly become huge insurmountable crises when control is transferred to people who are less competent and more corrupt than previous leadership.
This has happened in cities such as Detroit and in countries such as Zimbabwe and South Africa. As the populations of countries in Europe fall and the populations of countries in subSaharan Africa rise, a transfer of populations northward to Europe will accelerate — leading to more transitions such as we have seen in Detroit and in Zimbabwe/South Africa.
Why can’t we simply substitute one group of people for another, and expect everything to continue to run as they have previously? The world had best face up to this problem and decide what needs to be done to keep the lights on, the food on the table, and the homes/workplaces/schools safe, dry, and comfortable. …
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has lowered the threshold for future wars, due to its nonsensical justification and its particularly brutal execution and characteristics of genocide and ethnic cleansing.
If China decides to jump on the war train and invade Taiwan, the international threshold of war will be lowered even more.
Putin looked into the future and saw nothing but decline for Russia, unless he did something drastic. And so he invaded Ukraine based upon a long chain of delusional beliefs. As China’s future looks more and more bleak, Xi may arrive at similar conclusions and take similar actions.
With both Russia and China engaged in brutal wars of conquest, would-be dictators and strong men around the world will look at broken supply chains for food, energy, medical supplies, technology, and other vital supplies and they will see windows of opportunity for carving out their own little pocket empires.
War fever can be contagious at times.
A less prosperous world, with stagnant or declining per-capita incomes, will lead to more squabbling. The times of plenty are passing.