A “nowcast” that models GDP growth from the Atlanta Fed suggests the Q2 number will print -1.6%. [In Q1 of 2022 it was -1.4%.] …
The colloquial definition is that two consecutive quarters of contraction equals a recession. It is often useful as a rule of thumb in international comparisons.
But in the U.S., a committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research — the semi-official arbiters of business cycle dates — defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.” …
White House Council of Economic Advisers chair Cecilia Rouse and member Jared Bernstein, present their case in a new blog post that the economy is nowhere near recession as defined by the NBER committee’s criteria.
Really? No recession, just like that? How convenient. Reality doesn’t care.
A concerned reader who is very knowledgeable about the ways of the markets:
A recession is normally defined as two quarters (six months) of negative growth (GDP). January-March was a negative growth quarter in the US, so just one more such quarter is needed.
However, the US Government decided in early 2020 to call the shorter dip (official figures showed one thing and unofficial another), due to Covid-19, a recession. With the “Advance” official numbers due later this week, they’ve now said that even with six months of negative growth and non-official indicators already confirming the US is in a recession, the authorities will probably declare it’s not a recession. This is “irregular” on the world stage, to put it nicely.
One cynically wonders whether the calling of a recession in 2020 was to help get the massive money printing program going again so fast without resistance and not calling one this year has something to do with the mid-term elections in a few months, which the Democrats are likely to lose badly at this stage (President Biden’s approval ratings are strikingly low and still declining as well).
The left has “trouble” with definitions:
And this recession, Australians might have problems with house prices:
Not to worry, it’s not a recession and the monetary authorities are busying redefining “money” by printing more like confetti.