Australian Election: The Great Realignment moving the Liberals to the “right”

Australian Election: The Great Realignment moving the Liberals to the “right”. By Chris Mitchell.

While many journalists believe the Liberal Party needs to move to the left after Saturday’s election to protect heartland inner-city seats that do not fall to “teal” independents, the opposite is more likely.

The teals may rout a couple of progressive Liberals, but the Coalition seems destined by demography to emulate Republicans in the US and Tories in the UK, embracing outer suburban and rural voters, as wealthy city conservatives vote on issues less related to material wellbeing. …

Following the pattern in the US and UK:

Western democracies were being polarised between “somewheres” and “anywheres”. “Somewheres” were traditional voters with values aligned to those of a particular place. “Anywheres” were the winners of globalisation whose values were shared globally and were more focused on environmental and identity issues. The “somewheres” supported Donald Trump in 2016 and Brexit in the UK. …

Queensland Nationals senator Matt Canavan probably got closer to the truth … “My view is there is no reason to be scared of what some have termed the boganisation of the Liberal/National parties because there’s a lot of bogans out there and they all get the same vote as high-wealth people.” …

Canavan was more worried about the jobs of ordinary Australians than he was about the jobs of progressive Liberal MPs such as Dave Sharma in Wentworth in Sydney’s east and Trent Zimmerman in North Sydney. He wanted them to hold their seats but knew they would be OK financially if they lost. …

The evidence from Morrison’s campaign suggests he thinks he can take “somewheres” from Labor even if he can’t defend “anywheres” in teal seats. The PM has been campaigning in Labor outer suburban seats in Sydney and Melbourne and in Labor’s Hunter Valley coal seats. …

This “somewheres” focus helps to explain his support for controversial Sydney candidate for the electorate of Warringah, Katherine Deves. Her views on trans women competing in women’s sport might be unpopular in the inner city seats where many journalists live but in the rest of mainstream Australia, Deves’ views are resonating. …

Labor reinventing itself as the party of the well-off bureaucrat:

Labor is being challenged by the Greens in formerly working class innercity suburbs. These are now expensive areas with few working-class homeowners. …

The Greens are to the ALP’s working class base what the teals are to Liberal voters in wealthy seats — a drag to the left from traditional party values. House prices in former working-class areas are instructive.

In inner Sydney Marrickville, where Anthony Albanese’s electoral office sits, the median house price today is $1.9m. This is a largely industrial suburb under the flight path close to Sydney Airport. In the former wharfie heartland of Sydney’s Balmain, the median price today is $2.65m. …

Union membership in the private sector has fallen below 10 per cent as Labor becomes the party of public sector workers. These people live in the same suburbs as the incorporated tradies and small business people the Coalition needs to target. …

Globalists vote left:

The Liberals may not remain the party of big business. They are alienated from the preoccupations of big business. Think climate change, diversity in and out of the workplace, gay marriage, defending trans rights and Aboriginal reconciliation. Big business panders to the social media left’s campaigns that are destroying good government across the world.

Remember the Republicans were once the party of big business and the Democrats the party of blue-collar workers. Now the Democrats represent big-tech billionaires and the Hollywood elite, while many supporters of Donald Trump are more like National Party and One Nation voters here.

Another election of woke versus Western Civilization.

The polls say that woke will win this one. The shy vote for the right was 2% at the last Australian federal election, but would have to increase to 8% to win this one.

hat-tip Stephen Neil