The Global Great Replacement: Fear of a Black Planet

The Global Great Replacement: Fear of a Black Planet. By Steve Sailer.

First, from an article by Adam Tooze in Foreign Policy:

If the economic recovery of China and India was the great shock of the first quarter of the 21st century, the next decades have another revolution in store for us: the astonishing demographic transformation of Africa.

… Africa’s total population today is some 1.4 billion — an increase of more than tenfold over the course of a mere century — and it is set to rise further in the coming decades. …

Population 1950-2010 Africa, ME, Europe

At midcentury, Africa will likely account for just shy of 25 percent of the global population, more than three times its share in 1914. …

We should expect t the population of Africa by 2100 to exceed 4.2 billion, at which point Africans will constitute as much as 40 percent of the world’s population. That would be far short of Asia’s 60 percent share today, but it would constitute a revolution, nevertheless. …

Given the sheer scale of these numbers, discussions of African demography tend to evoke heated reactions. On the one hand, there is doom-mongering and thinly veiled racial anxiety about the prospect of tidal waves of African migrants heading north to Europe.

Africa has special challenges:

In 2018, prior to the pandemic, Nigeria overtook India as the country in the world with the largest number of absolutely poor citizens. Remarkably, despite the country’s natural resources and its well-deserved reputation as a center of entrepreneurial talent, Nigeria’s GDP per capita has not risen substantially above the level it reached in the late 1970s.

Nigeria holds the dubious distinction of being one of the economies in the world with the highest dollar amount of GDP per kilowatt of electrical grid capacity. That is both a testimony to the improvisational genius of Nigerians and an indictment of the failure to build adequate infrastructure. A country that is a major producer of oil but has no adequate domestic refinery capacity and generates much of its electricity by burning imported diesel fuel is, to put it mildly, failing to make the best of its possibilities. …

Indeed, the only example of development to high-middle-income status in sub-Saharan Africa is South Africa, and given its colonial and apartheid roots, it is hardly an example that anyone would wish to emulate. Today, South Africa is afflicted by creaking infrastructure, civil unrest, and mass unemployment. …

Sailer comments:

Professor Tooze is is hinting that the the ongoing Great Replacement of the Earth’s shrinking white population by a booming black population would be a world-historic disaster. The same hints have been offered by hyper-insiders like Emmanuel Macron, Bill Gates, and John Kerry, but in the current ideological zeitgeist of Good Guys Black, Bad Guys White, their subtle suggestions have been ignored.


Elon Musk’s Starlink has put 2,200 satellites in low-Earth orbit to provide Internet to 32 countries, including Ukraine since two days after the Russian invasion.

One reason for optimism is that technology sometimes evolves in directions that less competent people can make use of it. It used to be that a landline telephone network, like the one the Bell System provided admirably in the U.S., required so much organizational excellence and cultural capital that even the Italians, much less the Russians, could barely manage it.

But nowadays, an African-American genius can start a company that builds cheap rockets that put thousands of satellites in orbit to create a network so that a white country can (remotely) plug into into while being bombarded by the Russian Army and use it to bombard back. It’s not unreasonable to hope that black countries, to the extent that they can maintain peace in the countryside, can use solar power and possibilities like Starlink to connect most everybody eventually to the Internet.