Putin is Losing in Ukrainian Nightmare, Likely to Use Nukes or Chemical Weapons. By Laughing Wolf. Some important war updates being neglected by the media.

There is no way Vladimir can claim any of this as a victory, and he (and his survival) demand a victory. Instead, you have reports on the losses in the Wagner Group; yet more losses of top officers … and, you have conscription of 16-year-olds (and possibly younger) to make up losses. For all that the Russian military is supposed to be HUGE, keep in mind that every flippin unit may be at least 25 precent understrength and the units that are stationed in various locations around the country are usually there for a reason, such as restive populations, propping up friendly governments, and preventing incursions from people who don’t much care for the Russians. …

Which may explain his apparently sudden decision to simply encircle the Azovstal plant and seal it off, rather than launch the planned assault. The ceremony … where he gave the order is aimed primarily at the internal audience, not external. I fear he was honest in talking about the number of Russian troops that would die in that final assault. Those troops are desperately needed elsewhere, and encircling will free up the majority of them. It also creates a very good opportunity for the use of chemical weapons since most of the Ukrainian forces (and civilians) are underground. Hope I’m wrong, but…

Morale problems, refusing orders, refusing to fight:

Now, we get to some of the real war that is going on in the Russian military. I’ve been hearing a lot about troops refusing orders, refusing to advance, etc.

A while back, I speculated on Vladimir using the Chechens to replace the KGB troops that used to ensure the Soviet Army advanced. … Vladimir has been using the Chechens for particularly brutal actions military and otherwise, so using them this way is a logical progression. Trust me, the Russian military is watching this and making note of it. It’s entirely possible that the Chechens are about to discover that accidents happen, from artillery hitting the wrong coordinates to crucial information not getting to the right person/place at the right time.

The fact is, there are rumors/reports/whatever that Russian officers and troops refusing to obey orders is far more widespread that is being officially acknowledged. Nor is it apparently just the conscripts and/or contract troops. If true, this is huge. Add to it that there may be slowdowns in the already screwed up logistics chain, and you get a truly messed up situation. Oh, and there are fairly well confirmed reports that “volunteer” aka conscripted troops from various previous ‘liberated’ areas (Donbas, Georgia, etc.) have not just refused orders, but deserted and returned home. …

There is every reason to believe Vladimir is purging those he considers disloyal or risks. …

Nukes, chemical weapons:

For all the yapping by various functionaries about how Russia will never use nukes except in the face of a threat to the existence of the Russian Federation, there’s one thing to keep in mind. Vladimir himself has, in various speeches and comments, declared a number of non-physical things to be existential threats to him/Russia. This has included NATO giving the Ukraine supplies and training as but one such threat. …

The Ukraine has been a massive roadblock, and the Azovstal plant has become iconic as a roadblock. Add in the push to declare the military action (and in particular the loss of the Moskva since it couldn’t, just couldn’t have been the Ukraine all on its own), and the miring down of Russian military operations, as the work of NATO, and voila you have an existential threat to Russia. …

I honestly hope I am reading both Vladimir and the situation wrong. The problem is, for all that he apparently does feel that he is winning, he is in a desperate position. Even if the West could somehow give him an exit that he could possibly take, he won’t take it. Without a clear and major victory, his rule is finished and he will pay with his life. This might delicately be called a desperate situation, and as I’ve noted before several times, desperate people do desperate (and stupid) things. …

It’s clear that Vladmir is setting the stage in Russian public opinion for Russia to be already at war with NATO via proxy Ukraine. This gives him a number of options military and otherwise.

If he doesn’t ignore May 9 [celebrations for the end of WW2, when the Ukraine war was supposed to be wrapped up], we are almost guaranteed to see orders for the use of special weapons in the next two weeks. I do not, repeat NOT, see orders for or the use of strategic nuclear weapons except as a threat at this time. Anything done will be tactical in nature, and I see the Azovstal plant as a likely first target of chemical weapons.

Based on the steps he is taking, including making this a war with NATO, I am moving my odds on orders being given for the use of special weapons from 60/40 to 90 percent until May 9.

Free speech ultimately wins wars, by lowering corruption. By Jim Dunnigan.

Many [Russian] army commanders are in trouble for corruption as the deployment of their units to Ukraine revealed that many battalions contained fewer troops than commanders reported. In some battalions only half the troops the government was paying for were present. This was classic “ghost soldier” corruption in which commanders make extra cash by letting troops, especially conscripts, go if they can pay an exit fee and keep quiet about how they got out. This works until the battalion is ordered into a combat zone and cannot account for the missing troops. These units were sent in anyway and when the survivors got back to Russia they openly refused to retrain, rearm and return to Ukraine. Threats of punishment did not work because most of these men saw returning to Ukraine as a death sentence.

Ghost Soldiers were not the only corrupt practice exposed by the Ukraine fighting. Lots of money meant for vehicle maintenance or building the vehicles correctly had been stolen so these vehicles failed when they entered combat. Shoddy manufacturing meant nearly half the missiles, rockets and shells did not work. That was great for those plundering the munitions budget, and for Ukrainians being fired at. The Ukrainians do have to deal with all those unexploded objects on the ground or inside wrecked buildings. Putin has responded to all this by firing or arresting several hundred military, intelligence or procurement officials. The arrests continue and Putin is trying to gather new staff he can rely on for an accurate picture of what is going on in Russia, Ukraine and elsewhere.

All these changes are expensive, mainly for Russia. Meanwhile Ukrainians prepare for continued fighting and make preparations for driving the Russians out of Ukraine, including territory (Crimea and portions of two east Ukraine provinces) that was seized in 2014, after which Russia accepted a truce. Russia has been violating that truce ever since and now find themselves desperately trying to hold on to portions of Ukraine they occupy while Ukraine receives billions in military aid from NATO nations as well as other countries worldwide. Ukraine is also buying some new weapons and the Russians cannot halt this or the delivery of new weapons to Ukrainian forces. The Russian plan to conquer Ukraine in fifteen days turned into a nightmare situation that gets worse for Russia with each passing day.

To darken this situation a bit more, Putin threatens to use nuclear weapons rather than admit defeat in Ukraine. This has generated a lot of criticism inside Russia. For most Russians, paying for Putin’s mistakes are one thing but the possibility of a nuclear war is a misjudgment too far.