Russia, China: The Torpedoes Circle Back

Russia, China: The Torpedoes Circle Back. By David Archibald.

The situation in Russia is like the fate of the USS Tang, a submarine in WW2 with an exemplary record in sinking Japanese ships before she was sunk by one of her own torpedoes that had circled back on her. The tale was told by the nine survivors.

Russia’s torpedo:

Sometime in the late 1960s, the Soviet Union embarked on a long term influence operation in the United States. Through their ties to US communists, they knew of the existence of the young Barack Obama. The Soviet Union fell apart in 1991 but the torpedo they had fired at American values stayed on course and duly started doing damage once he was elected president in 2008, possibly 40 years after the scheme was hatched.

The damage included making American institutions far more progressive. The State Department, to cite one example, became more progressive and adopted regime change as a way of remaking the world in its own image. The first fruit of that was changing out the pro-Russian regime in Ukraine, aided by the sniper of Maidan Square. …

The election of President Trump didn’t slow things down much. For example, in 2019 the Army Quadrennial Review Office commissioned the Rand Corporation to produce a report entitled Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground. The report is a discussion of “measures that would stress Russia’s military or economy”, causing the Russians to overspend on defense, thus suppressing their domestic economy. It seems that the Army wanted to emulate the success of Reagan’s “Star Wars” program in stressing the Soviet economy.

The problem is that while the Soviets did want to take over the world, the Russian state of the 21st century had more modest ambitions. … A country that resiles from spending more than 5% of GDP on defense isn’t all that bellicose. Note that the Rand report was complaining about that, and wanted Russia to waste money by building a bigger military. …

As this sentence from page 4 of the Rand report notes: …

A risk discussed throughout this report is that Russia could respond to certain U.S. measures in ways that harm the interests of the United States or its allies or in ways that reduce stability.

Hello to the real world consequences of tormenting Russia just for the fun of it!

Another couple of years pass and Obama’s team gets back together in the State Department. They resume tormenting the Bear. Just as the Chicoms see the existence of any democratic country on the planet as an existential threat, the progressives running the State Department see the existence of any country not worshiping their gods of climate and gender fluidity as being an affront to their sensibilities.

Unfortunately Putin rose to the bait, and we have entered a whole new world. The torpedo the Soviets launched in the early 1970s circled back on its creators. Without Obama, the State Department wouldn’t have become so progressive and could have lived with a country that didn’t want to spend more than 5% of GDP on defense. …

The lesson China is likely to take from the Ukraine war is that a small force with stand-off weapons can chew up a large invading force. China’s problem in invading Taiwan is that the result is binary; once the first shot is fired they have to win or they will lose, and losing might mean the end of the regime. …

China’s torpedo:

While the Russians had decades of peace before their Obama effort circled back on them, the Chicoms had only two years before covid came back to them. In 2011, Ralph Baric of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill was able to alter the SARS virus so that it had a 15- to 20-fold increase in mutation rate.

Ralph Baric: covid’s father?

Since the late 2019 escape of the covid virus and Xi’s encouragement of its spread beyond China, covid has mutated to become far more virulent and has landed back in China. Large numbers of people are now locked down and the Chicom economy has taken a hit.