The Great Realignment in US Foreign Policy

The Great Realignment in US Foreign Policy. By Darren Beattie.

Way back in 2016, President Obama said something that was surprisingly cogent and astute in an interview in The Atlantic. … The Ukraine is simply not a core American interest that is worth killing and dying over: …

Obama’s theory here is simple: Ukraine is a core Russian interest but not an American one, so Russia will always be able to maintain escalatory dominance there.

“The fact is that Ukraine … is going to be vulnerable to military domination by Russia no matter what we do,” he said.

But what if Putin were threatening to move against, say, Moldova — another vulnerable post-Soviet state? Wouldn’t it be helpful for Putin to believe that Obama might get angry and irrational about that?

“There is no evidence in modern American foreign policy that that’s how people respond. People respond based on what their imperatives are, and if it’s really important to somebody, and it’s not that important to us, they know that, and we know that,” he said. …

“The idea that talking tough or engaging in some military action that is tangential to that particular area is somehow going to influence the decision making of Russia or China is contrary to all the evidence we have seen over the last 50 years.”

Dare we say, Barack Obama was right?

The Ukraine crisis has now become the Russia-Ukraine war. Thanks to the stubbornness, arrogance, and incompetence of America’s discredited foreign policy “elite,” yet another entirely avoidable conflict has gone hot.

So far, Biden has resisted the calls for escalation, and even war, that are emanating from the Democrat military-industrial-diplomatic-NGO-neocon complex, which is always looking for new places to throw away American wealth and lives. But he should have resisted these forces from the very beginning and sought a diplomatic solution with Russia, which might have involved something as simple as demilitarization in the Ukraine and a signed treaty promising Ukraine would never join NATO. …

Whereas Barack Obama was a Democrat who often embraced realism and caution, in the wake of the Russia hoax the party has abandoned all sensibility and rationality to join up with The War Party. Foreign policy has become just another way for Democrats to vent their Trump Derangement, their anxiety, and their personal psychoses. Unsurprisingly, former Republican neocons from Bill Kristol, to David Frum, to Anne Appelbaum, to Jennifer Rubin have now made their home in the Democrat party.

Joe Biden embraced this foreign policy belligerence and these neocons to get elected, but all of this tough talk has now fallen flat now that Putin has actually called his bluff. Biden did the bidding of his neocon and neolib handlers in ratcheting up tensions with Russia, but he was all bark and no bite when push came to shove, and because of it, America has never looked weaker on the world stage. …

War in Ukraine is simply not in our vital national interest.

Opposition to the War Party:

Happily, instead of simply trying to “own the libs,” far more people on the right are getting this question right. Stalwarts from Tucker Carlson, to Ohio Senate candidate J.D. Vance, to America First Congressional candidate Andrew McCarthy (NY-24)have consistently opposed belligerence in Ukraine, so much so that MSNBC produced a collective hit piece on them. …

McCarthy also kept a focus on the big picture, telling Revolver “China would like nothing more than for America to dump its time, energy, resources, blood and treasure on Ukraine.”

At least Biden is learning to ignore the War Party:

Back in 2003, neocons and neoliberals from both parties endorsed a war in Iraq, predicting rapid victory and an easy transition to democracy. And it really was “both parties;” George W. Bush and Dick Cheney masterminded the war, but Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden both voted for it.

The war was a total disaster, based on false premises, yet because American elites never face consequences for failure, nothing happened. Come 2011, when Libya became unstable, Hillary Clinton egged on the war, and then luxuriated in the slaughter that followed:

In 2014, this same unholy alliance cheered on a color revolution in Ukraine. …

Now, eight years into a disaster they created, these interventionists again want to set US policy, and they again want a position of maximum aggression that will prove useless for the people of Ukraine and suicidally self-destructive to the people of America.

Thankfully, while almost nobody in the foreign policy blob ever learns, one person did learn at least a little: Former Iraq War backer Joe Biden. Biden argued against intervening in Libya, and last summer he followed through on President Trump’s withdrawal from Afghanistan — albeit clumsily — despite enormous consternation from the Beltway.

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hat-tip Stephen Neil