Solar Update

Solar Update. By David Archibald.

Reports from the current Northern Hemisphere winter include plenty of low temperature records broken, frozen seas off Greece, etc., suggesting that the world is cooling. …

The snow mass in the Northern Hemisphere is on trend to set a record. The greater the snow mass, the longer it will take to melt and thus albedo (reflection of sunlight back out to space) will be increased, providing a positive feedback that results in more cooling. …

The cause of the cooling is evident in the solar record:

Solar Cycle 25 is tracking 24 closely so far and so is much weaker than most solar cycles since the 1950s. [F10.7 is solar radiation at a particular microwave wavelength. The F10.7 level correlates well with the sunspot number and other measures of solar activity.] …

Through most of the instrument record, the inverted Oulu neutron count used to track the F10.7 flux closely. There was a regime change in 2006 and now the Oulu neutron count is consistently higher relative to 10.7 flux. The recent data suggests that the gap is widening, which means more neutrons are reaching the lower atmosphere where they can initiate cloud droplet formation, which in turn will reflect more sunlight and cool the planet. …

Meanwhile the Liberal and Labor parties continue to promise to wreck the Australian economy in order to ward off global warming.

The lesson from all this is that the basis of policies which will impoverish the nation, and possibly even destroy it, should be continually questioned to see if they remain valid.

The Earth’s surface temperature is mostly controlled by space weather, and only mildly influenced by the carbon dioxide level.

David’s data shows that the Sun’s activity levels dipped appreciably around 2004 – 2006. I found in 2014 that, in all our historical data, there is a delay of one solar cycle (about 11 years) between changes in the Sun’s activity and temperatures on the Earth’s surface. Hence the prediction that global cooling would start in 2017. In the event, global cooling started in 2016, from the peak of the 2016 El Nino:

(Btw: The changes in temperature here are NOT simply due to more or less heat given off by the Sun, but are an indirect effect that probably works by modulating the cloudiness of the Earth.)