A new Heartland Institute and Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the election were held today, just 40% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote to reelect Biden, while 46% would vote for Trump. Another 10% would choose some other candidate in a Biden-Trump rematch. …
Among voters not affiliated with either major party, however, Trump would win by a 16-point margin, with 45% to Biden’s 29% of the vote….
The survey found that a majority (52%) have an unfavorable impression of Biden, including 42% who have a Very Unfavorable view of the president. Forty-six percent (46%) view Biden favorably, including 28% who have a Very Favorable impression of him. By comparison, 51% of voters view Trump favorably, including 31% who have a Very Favorable impression of the former president.
The Democrats have bet the farm on a hate-Trump message, which seems like a dubious strategy even if the ex-president were as unpopular as they apparently think. But with poll numbers like these, the Trump-obsession strategy starts to look suicidal.
If 51% have a favorable opinion of Trump, the Democrats’ hate-fest of the last year has been a colossal flop.
Trump leads Biden by 5 points, 46%-41%, well outside the margin of error. … It is driven in part by a shift of Hispanic and independent voter support to Trump, a solid 81% GOP base for the Republican, and growing support among suburbanites and college-educated voters …
Other surveys … have also shown Trump with a lead of 2-8 points. The current Real Clear Politics polling lead by Trump is 4.8 points … In yesterday’s Secrets, we reported on the often accurate betting odds, which also showed Trump solidly leading Biden, with a 3-1 chance of winning in 2024.
But who counts the votes? While Democrats count the votes in swing states and Republicans are not allowed to scrutinize the counting, trust will be low.
In Australia, ballots are all by hand and are all counted (and recounted, if necessary) by hand. All parties can send representatives to literally look over the shoulders of the people counting the votes, and can challenge the way a vote is counted. Distrust over the counting of votes has never been an issue, because everyone trusts the count.