Empirical data: Waning Vaccines versus Natural Protection

Empirical data: Waning Vaccines versus Natural Protection. By Yair Goldberg et al., 5 Dec 2021, Israel.

This study is the first to comprehensively quantify the waning of natural and hybrid immunity at the national level in a real world setting.

Fig. 3. Confirmed infections per 100,000 risk days.

Clear evidence of waning immunity is evident for the Recovered cohort (Figure 3A), the Vaccinated cohort (Figure 3B), and the Hybrid immunity cohorts (Figure 3C). This pattern of waning immunity was evident across all the age groups.

Immunity from vaccination is only better than the natural immunity you get from  recovering from covid for the first two months. After than, natural immunity is better — three times better by eight months.

Karl Denninger:

It turns out the claims that “you must get jabbed”, especially if you were previously infected, were a damned lie.

Due to the nearly-universal vaccination in this nation (Israel) there is no longer a control group of unvaccinated people of sufficient size to provide good data. How convenient! …

Odds of severe outcomes (hospitalization or death):

Severe cases, which can progress to critical or fatal outcomes, are the only ones that matter. None of the others do. Not only are PCR tests known unreliable, but in addition who cares if you sneeze?

We’ve known for decades that coronaviruses run on a roughly four-year cycle in the population and this means that reinfection is … a near-certainty. Just as in gunfights where only the hits count when it comes to respiratory viruses only the severe (or worse) cases count. …

  • If you were infected and recovered your risk of a severe outcome, if you got infected [again], was 0.18% under 39, 1.1% if 40-59 and 7.8% if you were over 60.
  • If you were vaccinated and boosted …: 0.1% if under 39 (too few events for good statistical power; there was only one), 0.6% if 40-59, but 6.2% if over 60. …
  • If just vaccinated but not boosted …: 16-39 your risk there was 0.05%, for 40-59 it was 0.6% (!!) and for 60+ it was 8.1%. …

In other words:

  • If you’re old … the jabs are basically worthless compared against prior infection. …
  • Among infections that matter, being boosted had negative or no efficacy when it comes to severe outcomes for everyone under 60! …

Note that none of this includes the risk from the jabs themselves. To the mortality and morbidity (“severe” outcomes) you must also add that which comes directly from the medication, since no drug is ever without said risks.

First generation covid vaccines: The more we find out, the worse they appear.