COVID-19: Where Are We Going?

COVID-19: Where Are We Going? By Robert Clancy, Emeritus Professor of Pathology at the University of Newcastle Medical School. He is a member of the Australian Academy of Science’s COVID-19 Expert Database.

Vaccines suppress spread and greatly lower deaths:

If we look at three countries with previous high rates of infection (the UK, US and Israel) with more than 40 per cent of the population fully vaccinated, very little third wave was observed. This is consistent with a combined effect of vaccination and a high level of post-infection immunity, further supported by a low observed “breakthrough” infection rate, recorded in the US at 0.15 per cent. …

A “breakthrough” is where a vaccinated person catches covid.

An overview of all post-vaccination data suggests protection against severe disease, with around 70 to 80 per cent protection against all episodes [of covid], and a shift towards asymptomatic infection. Around 25 per cent of breakthrough infections are asymptomatic. …

About 20% of people in the US and UK have caught covid, of whom about half were asymptomatic.

The US and UK have respectively had 33.2 million and 4.5 million documented COVID-19 patients. Currently 20 per cent of blood donors in the US have anti-COVID-19 antibodies. …

Vaccines are worth taking if you are old, but not if you are young. The crossover age — which would depend on co-morbidities of course — isn’t clear yet, but is probably over 50:

For mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) the ratio of deaths prevented over deaths reported as adverse events under fifty years is 4 to 5, and over fifty years is 35, giving strong support for vaccinating older subjects.

Ratios for the same age bands with a DNA vector vaccine (Johnson & Johnson) were 2 and 25, again strongly supporting the value of vaccinating older subjects. …

Australia:

Australia’s current level of community vaccination is about 10 per cent, and we present a population vulnerable to catastrophic COVID-19 infection resembling the horrors experienced in the northern hemisphere. …

The other reason for community vaccination in Australia is that without significant community immunity, the relaxation of border controls would lead to a devastating and uncontrolled spread of infection, of the order experienced elsewhere. …

The future — vaccinations forever??

The idea that influenza vaccination would be a model is, in my view, becoming likely: COVID-19 vaccines will prevent serious disease to a greater extent than acquired “infection”, with a shift towards mild disease and asymptomatic infection, but with ongoing and variable loss of protection against mutants. There will be less protection in the elderly. A limited duration of effect plus the appearance of vaccine-resistant mutants will mean annual booster shots matched to circulating variant virus will be require. …

Vaccine casualties are much higher than from other vaccines, not so much from blood clots but due to a systemic inflammatory response — antibody and sensitised T cells, generated from previous infection or vaccination, reacting with high levels of the spike protein, encoded by the mRNA or the DNA vector vaccine.

First, similar high mortality rates of around thirty to forty per million are described in Europe, the UK and South Korea — all areas with high numbers of COVID-19 infections. Second, a Canadian epidemiologist, Jessica Rose, has completed a careful analysis of the VAERS data base, using the Bradfield Hill Criteria for Causality. She concluded that her analysis strongly supports a causative relationship. Third, the frequency of reported events short of death, but expected if vaccination was causative of death, was found to be commensurate: admissions to hospital of eighty-five per million vaccinations; emergency care 200 per million; and medical office visits 260 per million. ..

The anti-viral scandal:

The most difficult issue to understand in the COVID-19 saga has been the rejection by much of Western medicine of the value of cheap, safe and effective re-purposed therapies. This extraordinary situation and its driving factors of ideology and Big Pharma, have pervaded society from early in the pandemic. My 13-year-old grand-daughter says hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) is a “hoax drug”.

An updated summary of clinical studies for HCQ identifies 245 studies of 368,128 patients, with 64 per cent improvement in twenty-six early treatment trials. Some of these studies are short of perfect — which is to expected in the chaos and urgency of a pandemic. The scream of the armchair “experts”, none of whom seem to be caring for sick people, for Randomised Controlled Trials (RCT) should be (but strangely are not) accepting a significant 46 per cent improvement in six early treatment RCTs. Every study showed improvement. Thirteen studies showed 72 per cent lower mortality. Meta-analysis of thirty-four pre-exposure prophylaxis studies gave 28 per cent improvement (P < 0.001).

Ivermectin (IVM) has seen more recent interest because of the political connections of HCQ. Of thirty-seven studies, there was 81 per cent and 96 per cent lower mortality respectively for early treatment and prophylaxis, which included all of seventeen RCTs. All these results are statistically significant, and details are available on the public record. …

Numerous regions in South America, Mexico and India (Goa) have introduced IVM or HCQ across the board for their residents, with impressive reductions in COVID-19.

Where are we in mid-2021?

COVID-19 is a constantly moving challenge. … There will be amazing discoveries before this pandemic is over—but that may not be for some time to come. In the meantime, we have to live with what we have. …

Current evidence suggests that it is unlikely any vaccine will stand out as being more efficacious than another. …

There are high levels of serious adverse events for both mRNA [Pfizer] and DNA vector [AZ] vaccines that have attracted little attention. These reactions are probably caused by uncontrolled systemic antigen synthesis following vaccination, interacting with antibody from previous infections or immunisation. Deaths reported in the US from “systemic inflammation” within a day or two of vaccination at thirty to forty per million is unacceptable in the long term.

It is thirty to forty times the death rate from thrombotic complications [blood clots], which have been front-page news in recent times. These data are from countries with high background incidence of COVID-19 infections, unlike Australia. It is unlikely Australia will see these levels of post-vaccine death during the current first round of vaccination as the condition of immune priming does not exist.

In other words, giving a vaccine to someone who has already caught covid and thus has antibodies is asking for trouble.

With respect to COVID-19, Australia is on a knife edge. Genetic vaccines are needed for the current Australian challenges of protecting the community from the ever-present threat of quarantine leak and out-of-control community infection, and to facilitate opening national borders. However, the risk of genetic vaccines must be understood and monitored. Mortality and morbidity data from the northern hemisphere signals the importance of care in future vaccine selection, and pressures from vested interests must be resisted. …

At this stage data and science favour antigen vaccines over genetic vaccines [e.g. Pfizer, AZ]. Early evidence that genetic vaccines can re-model the immune apparatus, with hypersensitivity and autoimmune complications in the short term, together with localisation of spike protein in the brain, heart and other tissues, predicts possible long-term complications involving brain, heart and other tissues. Monitoring of both adverse events and virus genotype is central to long-term vaccine strategy.

Long article with lots of info.

hat-tip Stephen Neil