The sad fact remains that [Dan] Andrews and the ALP continue to be broadly popular, and are on track to win yet another term of government come the next election, due in 2022. … [Yet], hardly a month has gone by without an ALP ineptitude of some kind or another. …
Dan Andrews is the demographic winner
As has happened in a variety of locales across the Western world, large-scale demographic change has heavily favoured parties of the Left, rendering the Right impotent and largely useless. …
And so too it is here in Victoria. The Liberals’ share of the overall vote declines as their dominance in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs is eclipsed by the growth in population (and the associated ALP vote) in other parts of town. The ALP is now comfortably ahead in the immigration-fuelled, high-growth regions of Melbourne’s north and west, holding all but three of the thirteen seats that have populations of 10 per cent more than the state average. The ALP also holds all of the fifteen fastest-growing suburban areas and almost forty of the forty-five electorates with the greatest number of (soon to be ALP-voting) children.
Thus, to answer our initial paradox: the incompetence of Andrews and his government … is almost irrelevant, as “the people” are overwhelmingly on his and the ALP’s side. With the Liberals losing middle-income local “progressives” and lower-income migrants, they are pushing against demography.
Which is why Andrews can be as incompetent as he likes, as nothing the opposition says or does really matters much. A switch of leadership from Michael O’Brien — a man almost unknown to the broader Victorian public — to Tim Smith, or whomever, will do little to change the attitudes and voting habits of the bulk of the people in the increasingly important western half of the city: that is, a people which views the Liberal Party as an anachronism and votes accordingly.
This realisation must have dawned among the wiser heads of the Victorian Liberals. A brief glance overseas at the broader movements and correlations between immigration, demographic change and left-of-centre political dominance should have made this long evident.
This explicit connection between immigration and a leftward shift in politics was outlined by Helen Andrews last year in the article “How Early Immigration Shifted Our Politics Permanently to the Left” in the American Conservative, concerning the twentieth-century US experience. Ann Coulter was writing about the subject in 2015, and Michael Anton in his 2020 book The Stakes describes how his once Republican home state of California came to be coloured a deeply toned, and deeply dysfunctional, Democratic blue.
Thus the Victorian Liberals are yet another right-of-centre party that is finally having to confront the (largely predictable) consequences of the gaping contradictions inherent in their own policies and ideology. Their decades-long reliance on immigration to stoke economic growth (John Howard, for example, doubled the immigration intake) did achieve the narrow economic goal of a sufficiently buoyant economy (almost thirty years without a recession, before Covid). Yet their failure to contend with the deeper electoral changes that such a demographic shift has wrought has left them in a rather pathetic position, unable to exert influence on events.
The Right therefore finds itself at an impasse. Howard’s dream that the Liberals were a “broad church” that was able to unite “both economic liberalism and social conservatism” was always a fantasy. As Victoria has shown, social and economic liberalism — which emaciates social capital, erodes the birth-rate, and is reliant on immigration for economic growth — destroys the possibility of any type of healthy, socially-conservative society. This sad truth is occasionally acknowledged by the federal Liberal Party, as they make cosmetic changes to the social fabric (such as Morrison’s recent change to the National Anthem) whilst continuing full-steam-ahead with the demographic and economic changes that have made themselves and their party increasingly irrelevant.
Victoria is the Australian state most advanced along the Californian path towards ethnic and racial tribalisation, and permanent leftist rule.
Demographics is destiny. But we don’t have to import our destiny — it’s optional, not compulsory.