The conservatives just won big at local UK elections, winning working class areas once thought to be Labour’s forever.
For governing parties to win hitherto safe opposition seats in by-elections is very rare indeed. When it happens by a landslide, at the start of mid-term, amid ‘sleaze’ accusations being flung at the PM and against a leader of the opposition who should still be in his honeymoon phase then we are entitled to suppose that something more profound is going on. …
A long-term structural political alignment is in progress that stems from the collapse of Labour’s traditional coalition of support.
Brexit was the catalyst and Labour’s post-referendum behaviour the accelerant.
The traditional working class … has come to understand that its values are despised by the modern, woke, middle-class Left which now holds the Labour party in its grip.
Were Labour now to decide that it must tilt drastically back towards the pro-nation, tough on crime, socially conservative, immigration-sceptic, anti-ID politics outlook of its lost tribe of voters, then Keir Starmer would not be the man to lead it.
As the uber-Remainer, the mastermind of Labour’s betrayal of Leave voters, the knee-taker in chief to the Cenotaph-defacers of BLM and the man who sided with whiney Meghan and Harry against the Royal Family, he would have no credibility as a Blue Labourite. Just a slippery London lawyer in a sharp suit trying his luck with a new message.
But were anyone else to lead such a bold change of direction, the consequences for Labour would be equally disastrous. The two-thirds of its activists and big chunk of its voters who subscribe to the full panoply of modernist-Left beliefs would surely slope off in huge numbers to the Greens. …
The rest of Starmer’s Labour leadership is now eminently predictable. He will be a left-leaning ‘in-betweener’. He will have to prioritise his doctrinaire leftist voters, but in a softish way and try to find things they will tolerate him doing that might appeal to some among the lost working class. He will try and put together a strong case that the Conservatives have let down their new voters and were never serious about the levelling-up agenda. He will urge everyone to ‘move on’ from the battles of Brexit. And he’ll end up losing very badly to the Conservatives in 2024.
The great realignment rolls on. The left is everywhere now the party of the rich, the professional class that serves them, and welfare recipients. It’s a hi-lo coalition, that trashes the middle class values that made the West great.