Complacency an enemy as reality of conflict sets in

Complacency an enemy as reality of conflict sets in. By Jim Molan, former chief of operations for coalition forces in Iraq.

The second-most powerful nation (China) wants to overtake the most powerful nation (the US). This has happened 16 times in the past 500 years and war has resulted on 12 of those occasions. These odds are poor enough for us to at least start planning. …

China is approaching high readiness and would be monumentally stupid to telegraph its punches by incremental actions. When China acts, it will act decisively, mainly against US bases in the region, as the Commander of the Indo-Pacific Command has indicated, with allies as collateral, at least in the initial stage. …

A direct attack on Australia by China without the involvement of the US is highly unlikely, but attacks on Australia as collateral through cyber, sea mines, or missile attack within a China/US war are more than likely. Subsequent military action depends upon who wins the main battles and whether the US is forced out of our region.

The US is not confident it can win, given its reduced world military capability since the Cold War ended. We might be on our own.

So, is there any hope? In a word, yes. Australia has more defence potential than any nation, we just elect not to realise it. If Israel can defend itself and become more secure over decades against millions of enemies across land borders and no strategic depth, we can do as well if not better.

hat-tip Stephen Neil