A New Correlation of Forces, by Richard Fernandez.
If elections were a war it would be easy: the progressive counteroffensive aimed at sweeping the House, Senate, and White House free of the rebel coalition has already failed. Despite enormous expense, the correlation of forces has essentially remained unchanged.
The 2016 loss might have been accounted as a lucky punch, but 2020 was a set-piece maximum effort by progressives backed by money, gangs, social censorship, and deep state support on a massive scale; yet it didn’t move the needle. It should have impressed, rather it showed the limits to the power of the American elite. …
The limits of elite prescience of over complex phenomena were demonstrated for all to see. The embarrassing surprise cast doubt over ambitious progressive projects based on social, biological, or climate engineering since the requisite degree of “scientific” certitude simply did not exist to predict even in a mundane election.
The populist uprising is now objectively too powerful for progressives to crush. The left must live with it, negotiate with it, coexist with it because they can no longer bulldoze it away. By the same token, the populists must accept that progressives are similarly too powerful to ignore. They cannot be provoked without cost. …
Conservatives … are full of passion but are organizationally underdeveloped. They are still over-reliant on charismatic leadership and require the time and adversity to institutionalize and internalize experiences. Destroying the progressives is beyond their current power. Withstanding the current onslaught may have to suffice.
Nah, the woke swamp will just replace the populists with more left-voting third worlders. Africa for Africans, but white countries for everybody! Black lives matter!