Election Portents

Election Portents, by John Hinderaker.

First: The polls are shifting in the last days before the election, just as they did in 2016. From Townhall, “If New Batch of Polls are Correct, Trump Will Soar Past 300 Electoral Votes.” …

We are at the point where polls are pretty much meaningless, but I don’t think it is coincidental that 2020 is just about a carbon copy of 2016. Most “mainstream” pollsters gave Biden a big lead early, I think for the purpose of aiding Democratic fundraising and discouraging Republicans, and then, in the last days before the election, they show the race tightening to within the margin of error — I suspect because they have changed their weighting of responses — so that no matter what happens, they can’t be “wrong.”

Second: I was on a call this afternoon with senior representatives of the Trump campaign. They appear to be confident of victory. They went through the early voting in each swing state, comparing Biden’s pre-election day lead with Hillary’s early voting lead. They also compared Biden’s early-vote lead with the margin they expect President Trump to rack up tomorrow. If their model is right, Trump will win.