Barring a giant polling error, the 2020 election will witness the largest gender gap in partisan preference since women gained the franchise. … Biden’s average lead among women in recent interview polls is about 25 points. … And yet, in those same surveys, Trump leads among men by three points. In 2016, the gender gap in voting preference was 20 points; if current polls hold steady, it will be 28. …
It would be a mistake to attribute this year’s gender gap entirely to Trump’s personal attributes. After all, women have been trending left, as men trend right, for decades now. And this development is not unique to the United States — rather, it is present across nearly all advanced democracies. …
The growing prevalence of singledom among America’s rising generation of women is one of the most potent forces in contemporary politics. In 2009, for the first time in history, there were more unmarried women in the United States than married ones.
And today, young women in the U.S. aren’t just unprecedentedly single; they also appear to be unprecedentedly uninterested in heterosexuality: According to private polling shared with Intelligencer by Democratic data scientist David Shor, roughly 30 percent of American women under 25 identify as LGBT; for women over 60, that figure is less than 5 percent. It’s possible that this is more of a life-cycle effect than a generational change.
The future is a different country. There, the Trump presidency is ancient history and the confident predictions of today’s pundits brim with dramatic irony. But surveys of Zoomers bring us tidings from Tomorrowland. And they appear to describe a place where politics is (at least) as fraught with gender conflict as our own.
A woman’s material dependence on her man has lessened. Women prefer having the alternative of a big-daddy state. But we seem to be moving beyond that now.
hat-tip Stephen Neil