Why Trump Has a Serious Chance of Winning. By Steven Waldman, in the leftist media. You know they are getting worried when they run stories like this.
The president is actually more popular now than on the day he was elected. Yes, that’s right. His personal favorability rating around election day in 2016 was 37.5%. Now, it is 43.2%. There are, in fact, hundreds of thousands of Americans (if not millions) who have grown fonder of Trump. …
The one pollster that consistently has Trump doing better than the national average — well enough to win — is The Trafalgar Group. They are often discounted as being to the right of the average, which is true. The Atlanta-based firm also happens to be the only polling firm that accurately predicted Trump’s margin in Pennsylvania and Michigan in 2016. So why are we so quick to discount the only pollster that got it right last time? (Right now, Trafalgar has Trump down 2% in Pennsylvania but up +1% in Michigan, and predicts to the Rich Lowry at National Review that the president will be re-elected).
Some of the pollsters who got those state races wrong in 2016 have adjusted their methodology to account for a lower black turnout and so on — but some, apparently, amazingly — have not. …
Then there’s the mysterious matter of voter registrations. Tom Edsall in the New York Times quoted a Democratic consultant about what seems to be a spike in the voter registration of the demographic group toughest on Democrats — non-college aged whites.
From this stage in 2016: Clinton Vaults to a Double-Digit Lead, Boosted by Broad Disapproval of Trump (POLL). By Gary Langer.
Hillary Clinton has vaulted to a double-digit advantage in the inaugural ABC News 2016 election tracking poll, boosted by broad disapproval of Donald Trump on two controversial issues: His treatment of women and his reluctance to endorse the election’s legitimacy. …
Fifty-nine percent of likely voters, moreover, reject Trump’s suggestion that the election is rigged in Clinton’s favor, and more, 65 percent, disapprove of his refusal to say whether he’d accept a Clinton victory as legitimate. Most strongly disapprove, a relatively rare result.
All told, Clinton leads Trump by 12 percentage points among likely voters, 50 to 38 percent, in the national survey, her highest support and his lowest to date in ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls.
De ja vu all over again