Election 2020: The Polls, or the Fundamentals?

Election 2020: The Polls, or the Fundamentals? By Scott McKay.

NBC has a poll with Joe Biden up by 14 points. Not to be outdone, CNN says the margin is 16. They’re polling registered voters because they say this will be the highest-turnout election in American history and everybody’s coming out to vote.

But is all of this real? Here are five things to consider that might make you doubt those polls.

1. Nothing much has changed since 2016.

All of those terrible polling numbers showing Trump getting murdered by Biden? They were just as bad in 2016. …

If anything the Left has been more oppressive and more fearsome in its attempts to shame and disparage Trump voters where it can. Deranged Democrats are recording themselves vandalizing Trump signs, some even on private property. Cars with Trump bumper stickers get keyed. People attack strangers for wearing MAGA hats.

What we found out in 2016 is those tactics don’t persuade people not to vote for Trump. …

2. American culture is trending Trump’s way, not Biden’s.

You’re aware there has been a massive run on guns and ammunition this year, right? …

Then there is the massive departure of America’s urban middle class to the suburbs and the exurbs. …

And then there’s the “get woke, go broke” phenomenon. The NBA has just about bankrupted itself, driving away the bulk of its viewing audience with its disgusting BLM virtue-signaling. …

Then there’s the death of the motion picture industry, which is losing its outlets as major theater chains are throwing in the towel. That industry has been in swift decline for years; it’s moribund now. How much influence have Democrats counted on from Hollywood celebrities in moving their message through the years? All but gone today.

The public is clearly turning against the “woke” virtue-signaling of American corporate culture. As Breitbart said, politics is downstream from culture, but in the past year the Left’s destruction of so many of the institutions it controls has begun to result in the diminished influence of those destroyed institutions. …

3. Ground game advantage: Trump (Bigly).

The voter registration numbers in Florida fly hard in the face of those poll numbers. Four years ago there were 330,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans. Now that gap is 183,000. In Pennsylvania, the Democrats’ edge in registered voters has fallen off by just under 200,000, the majority of which has come this year. In North Carolina, Republican voter registration is up 3.5 percent, while Democrats have fallen off by more than 6 percent since the 2016 election. …

The Trump campaign, undaunted by COVID-19, has engaged in a door-knocking campaign the likes of which few campaigns have ever put forth. The campaign’s standard is a million knocks a week, a staggering number, and they hit the 100 million mark early last month. The Biden campaign? Just went in the field. They’re scared of COVID. They’ve said so.

Oh, and those mail-in ballots you’re so afraid of? Not to say you have nothing to worry about, because mail-in balloting is clearly corruption of the process. But so far, in swing states like Ohio, Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the numbers on those mail-in ballots have things more or less at 50-50 by party registration. Nationally, Democrats have a sizable advantage, but who cares if they blow things out in Washington and California? …

4. What is Biden selling, anyway? …

He’s a manifestly bad candidate with a manifestly vacant message. The closest thing to this that has won a presidential election in the past century would be Jimmy Carter in 1976, but Carter at least was seen as a good guy and a political outsider. Nobody thinks that of Biden.

5. He who has more fun, wins. …

What’s fun about a COVID Karen candidate who won’t do real campaign events, who needs a teleprompter for softball TV interviews, who makes creepy and racist statements like the one a couple of days ago about how he was able to sequester at home because of some black woman stocking the grocery store shelves, or the one where he suggested he wanted to see a few pre-pubescent girls “dancing in about four years”? …

Trump’s supporters are doing boat parades with hundreds or even thousands of vessels forming armadas on rivers and lakes. They’re loading up the internet with funny memes. They’re wearing out state legislators demanding they open up their local economies. They’re beating local school districts up to get high school football players back on the fields. They’re clearly the most engaged citizens in the country, and they’re gaining energy rather than losing it as the election gets closer.

Biden is running as the anti-Trump. He is not saying anything more.

The Democrats aren’t talking about their policies, because they are too extreme and unpopular this year. The Democrats wouldn’t stand a chance if the media weren’t on their side.