Initial Kinetic Operations

Initial Kinetic Operations, by David Archibald. Reviewing  a new book by Washington-based Australian defence guru Greg Copley, The New Total War of the 21st Century,

The initial strategic operation of the CPC in early 2020 was to ensure that the PRC’s factories returned to full production as quickly as possible so that an abundance of PRC-made goods could be dumped at concessionary prices onto the world market. This would, if done rapidly and at enticing prices, make it more difficult to stimulate the re-establishment of manufacturing in the major “pseudo-post-industrial” client states of North America, Europe, and Australasia. …

Once war breaks out, Chinese trading stock in Australia will be expropriated. There was a similar exercise just prior to the entry of Japan into WW2. Japanese patrol boats travelled to northern Australia to collect Japanese pearling vessels, well before the end of the pearling season. They were shot up by Dutch aircraft as they passed through the Dutch East Indies. The Japanese collection exercise was a signal of the imminent start of hostilities, if you were attuned to it. …

Like Japan in 1941, the CPC had to buy time if it was to survive and consolidate control over markets and sources of supply. But, like Japan in 1941, would a precipitate action cause not just the US, but a variety of its allies, to rebuild in the longer-term?

Greg Copley warns that the Chicoms take a far more casual approach to using nuclear weapons than what one might expect. Certainly if they find themselves losing their war of choice then China is likely to start nuking Japanese cities. Tactical nuclear weapons have yields in the range of 72 tonnes of TNT equivalent up to a couple of hundred kilotons. For comparison, the yield of the blast that recently levelled Beirut’s port area was close to two kilotons.

Read it all.