Every day matters. See which day each US state loses the chance to protect thousands.

Every day matters. See which day each US state loses the chance to protect thousands. By Joanne Nova.

Look at State by State outcomes: visit Covid Act Now

New York:

Oops, too late for them, hospitals are going to get overwhelmed. Should have started shelter in place a few days earlier.

There are four levels of action modeled here (from March 19th). The final death tolls are very different.

Important points:

  • Social distancing merely delays things a bit, and reduces the final death toll by 100,000 to 292,000.
  • Shelter in place for three months makes a big difference, but still 50,000 deaths eventually.
  • Wuhan-style lockdown for three months is required to keep the death toll to just a few thousand.

How much inconvenience and interruption to the economy is worth 50,000 or 300,000 deaths in New York?

Australia’s population is 25 million, New York’s is 20 million. Broadly similar health facilities and demographics. Scaling up the results above to Australia, there will be maybe half a million Australian deaths unless something is done — as we estimated on the Wentworth Report several weeks ago when we were urging that the borders be closed immediately.

Now that the virus is in Australia, the cost is going to be horrendous. We can limit the deaths to a few thousand by going full-Wuhan, or maybe only 350,000 deaths by just doing social distancing. How many dead are acceptable in order to continue doing our normal activities and keep the economy “normal”?

Foreseeable and foreseen.