Microcosm of the West: 50 top doctors in Perth predict peak in May thousands to die, by David Johns at The West Australian. Perth is a relatively isolated city of about 2 million. 50 top doctors wrote an open letter to the state leader, saying:
There will be many who will become critically ill and die with hospital staff unable to do anything to prevent their demise.
We will have colleagues who die.
We will have nurses, business leaders, school teachers, mothers, fathers, and our grandparents who will die with us unable to do anything but watch it happen.
We will run out of ventilators and those who need them will then die. …
Recent daily increases in confirmed cases point to a doubling every three days, which is consistent with a system where no significant social isolation measures are in place. …
At its peak, in mid-to-late May, you can expect NEW demand for over 400 ventilators per day. In practice, almost all of these patients will die. …
And peak need for ventilators will be over four thousand in a system where we have less than two hundred. Again, most of those needing a ventilator will die.
Better get serious about social distancing, and close the state borders pronto. Of course, our leadership had ample information to take these actions a month ago, but didn’t take it. So who knows. Foreseeable and foreseen.