Ventilator Stockpiling And Availability. By Christopher Hurtado.
The US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) estimates that 865,000 US residents would be hospitalized during a moderate pandemic (as in 1957 and 1968) and 9.9 million during a severe pandemic (as in 1918).
- Moderate (1958/68-like) = 64,875 would need mechanical ventilation
- Severe (1918-like) = 742,500 would need mechanical ventilation
So how many ventilators are there?
One study estimated that US acute care hospitals own approximately 62,000 full-feature mechanical ventilators. … The study also reported an additional 98,000 ventilators that are not full-featured but can still provide basic function.
- Based on these numbers, the maximum number that can be potentially ventilated is around 160,000.
- US: 20.5 ICU beds with mechanical ventilation capability per 100,000 population
- Canada: 8.7 ICU beds with mechanical ventilation capability per 100,000 population
- Australia & New Zealand: 5.4 ICU beds with mechanical ventilation capability per 100,000 population
Houston, we might have a problem in the US. We definitely have one in Australia and NZ. Better halt the spread asap.
Outside China, the death rate from contracting coronavirus seems to be a tad under 1% if an ICU with ventilator is available, but about 5% if not.