The Coming Coronavirus Storm

The Coming Coronavirus Storm, by Rod Dreher.

You better sit down for this one. The New York Times got its hands on a presentation given at a CDC conference in February that gathered the agency’s senior officials, and top epidemiological experts, together at a meeting to game out how bad the virus outbreak could be in the US. … Excerpts:

Between 160 million and 214 million people in the U.S. could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to one projection. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.

Obvious long ago to any thinking observer. The Chinese reaction proved this was much deadlier than flu or swine flu, and much more contagious than SARS or swine flu.  This blog was pointing from early February that we needed to close the borders to Australia, but no, we left them open and will now pay the much higher costs of internal lockdowns and tens of thousands dead, maybe as many as half a million Australians.

The mortality rate for Spanish flu was about 2.5%, not 10% as shown here, and SARS was not that contagious.

Our political class are experts at spin and optics, but are so incompetent and complacent when it came to thinking about what would happen and taking the right action. They have failed us badly, and put us in harm’s way. Meanwhile the elite was scoffing that it was just like flu and closing borders was racist and evil. Fools.

How foolish? In the US, this foolish:

The top CDC officials met last month with the country’s best academic experts to put their heads together and figure out what we’re dealing with here, and President Trump was still doing his Mayor from “Jaws” shtick? From CNN on March 1:

The visit [to the CDC] comes as Trump has fumed in recent days at Dr. Nancy Messonnier, the director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, who recently said, “It’s not so much of a question of if this will happen anymore but rather more of a question of exactly when this will happen.”

Trump thought officials like Messonnier were causing unnecessary alarm.

The Times story doesn’t say if Dr. Messonnier was in the room for the presentation, but it would be very strange if, as one of the CDC’s senior officials, she had not been. We know that she met with the president, who publicly contradicted her at a February 27 press conference, saying that she was wrong to say the virus’s spread is “inevitable.” You will recall that at that time, Limbaugh and others in Trumpworld were trying to destroy Dr. Messonnier’s credibility by pointing out that she’s the sister of Rod Rosenstein. The Conspirator-in-Chief tweeted at the time:

So you have to wonder: did Dr. Messonnier or anybody in the CDC tell the president what the agency’s expert panel was projecting? How could they not have done? …

This administration has no credibility at all. It’s gone. Trump had to have known last month how bad this was going to get, but he lied to the nation about it (the charitable view is that this was because he was lying to himself), and he and his henchmen tried to destroy the credibility of a medical truth-teller.

Notice too that the administration is forcing public health experts to defer comment to the political operation in the White House. And this morning, Trump is in full blame-shifting mode. …

When this is over, there is going to be a terrible, terrible reckoning.

Decisions that you and I make regarding our personal conduct could easily make the difference between life and death for a lot of Americans. Yesterday an Italian doctor was quoted as saying that a child with no symptoms, but a carrier of the disease, can go visit his grandparents “and basically kill them.”