The Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch is exacting in his diction, even for an epidemiologist. Twice in our conversation he started to say something, then paused and said, “Actually, let me start again.” So it’s striking when one of the points he wanted to get exactly right was this: “I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable.” …
Even with the ideal containment, the virus’s spread may have been inevitable. Testing people who are already extremely sick is an imperfect strategy if people can spread the virus without even feeling bad enough to stay home from work.
Lipsitch predicts that within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. But, he clarifies emphatically, this does not mean that all will have severe illnesses. “It’s likely that many will have mild disease, or may be asymptomatic,” he said. As with influenza, which is often life-threatening to people with chronic health conditions and of older age, most cases pass without medical care. (Overall, about 14 percent of people with influenza have no symptoms.)
Lipsitch is far from alone in his belief that this virus will continue to spread widely. The emerging consensus among epidemiologists is that the most likely outcome of this outbreak is a new seasonal disease — a fifth “endemic” coronavirus. With the other four, people are not known to develop long-lasting immunity. If this one follows suit, and if the disease continues to be as severe as it is now, “cold and flu season” could become “cold and flu and COVID-19 season.”
Not really trying:
Originally, doctors in the U.S. were advised not to test people unless they had been to China or had contact with someone who had been diagnosed with the disease. Within the past two weeks, the CDC said it would start screening people in five U.S. cities, in an effort to give some idea of how many cases are actually out there. But tests are still not widely available. As of Friday, the Association of Public Health Laboratories said that only California, Nebraska, and Illinois had the capacity to test people for the virus.
Ok, so if catching COVID-19 is inevitable and really not so bad, as the emerging narrative goes, why are the Chinese reacting so vigorously? What do they know that we don’t?
And somehow any public discussion of closing the borders is completely omitted in the West, even though it is the obvious response and most people (according to some polls) want it.
Australia is going into winter as COVID-19 goes pandemic outside China. So we will get hit harder than the northern hemisphere. But we are also able, almost uniquely, to close our borders. It’s not even being discussed!
Somewhere in the bureaucratic-media-academic complex the decision has been made throughout the West to keep the borders open and live with the virus. No public discussion, the decision has been made. Why? By whom? Who is responsible?
The Australian Government basically admitted yesterday that it was not going to try to stop the virus, maybe not even continuing current travel bans. Instead, they are trying to “ramp up” medical supplies. Who gets the hospital beds if we all catch COVID-19 at once over the coming winter, ministers? You perhaps?
And what is the world to make of the high probability that COV-19 was made in a lab somewhere and and leaked from China’s lab at Wuhan? With a super-infectious HIV-like “mutation” that makes it super infectious? It latches on to the ACE2 receptors of cell membranes, which are most common in the lungs and intestines. These receptors are damaged by smoking and air pollution, and possibly there is a genetic basis for different numbers or types of ACE2 receptors. Or will that information now be suppressed too?
As of sometime right about now, will any talk of closing borders or that it was created in a lab be censored and suppressed in the West as “conspiracy theory” etc?
Maybe it’s already happening. Here’s yesterday’s trending topics on Twitter in the US. Notice that a misspelling of coronavirus is near the top, but “coronavirus” is missing. Odd, yes?
All of the major internet companies are shadowbanning or algorithmically deprecating posts about the virus. We rightly decried the heavy-handed censorship in China, but something very similar is happening in the United States. Instead of the government arresting people for posting about the virus, we have the soft censorship of “private” companies like Twitter hiding posts about the virus from people who aren’t going out of their way to look for them.
Zerohedge got banned from Twitter for even pointing out the amazing coincidence that the source of the virus outbreak is meters from China’s one and only bio-warfare lab for this kind of agent. So don’t expect mainstream sources to mention it.
What is going on? Why have western governments — but apparently not Israel or Singapore — given up on testing and containment? Is there covert bio-warfare going on, which makes containment impossible if agents can deliberately release it? The severe form of the disease causes difficulty breathing and requires hospitalization. It goes severe for between 5 and 17% of those infected — according to the non-Chinese stats. If 10% of the Australian population needs hospitalization sometime in the coming winter, there are going to be people dying in the streets here — like in China! There are numerous reports now of people getting it again, once they have already “recovered”. And our governments are so nonchalant. This does not add up. What is going on??
Imagine if Australia was one of the few places in the world free of coronavirus, and people could visit after a two week quarantine. Might be a real shot in the arm for tourism??
It’s not to late too close the borders. So pass this article on.
UPDATE: Australian policy is being dictated by our public universities, which have recklessly bet on huge numbers of Chinese students. It’s all about money. To preserve their income, our universities are encouraging government to keep the borders open and allow Chinese students in. Which pushes the cost onto the rest of us Australians, many of whom will die unnecessarily as a result.
The universities cynically suggest their Chinese students get around the ban on travel from China by holidaying in Thailand for two weeks before coming to Australia. As a result, there are many Chinese in Thailand — and the Israeli Government has now banned travel from Thailand. How long before countries ban travel from Australia?
Awesome own goal.
If the death rate for coronavirus (on a population with no immunity from prior experience) is 1%, as suggested by non-Chinese stats, then the number of Australians who die from letting in the virus will be around 250,000 (1% of 25 million).
If the death rate is only 0.15% as it is for ‘flu, then about 37 thousand Australians will die. Given the way the Chinese reacted, it’s not this low.
These deaths are entirely predictable. Australia won’t close its borders because it may endanger the income to our universities? How many dead Australians is that worth?
Then these deaths are on you, Australian universities. Dumb, greedy, PC, arrogant academics and administrators.
A virus engineered to attack only public servants would be worth chipping in for.