Time for Paranoia. By Nassim Taleeb.

When paranoid, you can be wrong 1000 times & you will survive. If non-paranoid; wrong once, and you, your genes, & the rest of your group are done.

It’s a yuuuge mystery that academics who deal w/risk, “rationality”, subforecasting & superforecasting fail to get it.

Personal responsibility, versus “the government will look after me”?

I’ve noticed a massive difference in how much people who deal in risk care versus those who don’t on #Covid_19

My VC & Wall St trader friends are prepping like mad.

My friends who work for bureaucracies just sort of shrug, waiting for someone else to tell them what to do.

On risk:

Plane and car crashes are neither multiplicative nor systemic. I block anyone comparing fear of multiplicative pandemics to car crashes.

Besides, airplane safety is the result of mega-paranoia.

How do [I] manage risk in [my] personal life? Ignore everything that is not in the tails/ systemic and multiplicative.