Brexit: Will Boris Johnson’s election gamble actually pay off?

Brexit: Will Boris Johnson’s election gamble actually pay off? By Steven Swinford.

Boris Johnson has finally – on his fourth attempt – succeeded in getting the election he has been pushing for. MPs voted by a huge majority of 418 this morning to hold an early poll on December 12.

Johnson’s strategy:

The prime minister wants to fight a “people v parliament election”, arguing that MPs have done everything they can to frustrate Brexit.

He insists he has delivered a good Brexit deal while Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, wants two referendums — a second vote on Brexit and another independence referendum in Scotland.

Mr Johnson is relying on evidence suggesting that Brexit has broken down traditional party loyalties.

Matthew Goodwin, a professor of politics at the University of Kent, highlighted a recent finding by the British Election Study which found that nearly half the country voted for different parties in the last three elections. …

Corbyn’s strategy:

On Brexit, Labour will offer a second referendum, which they usually call a “public vote”. This would be between a “sensible” Brexit deal which they believe they can negotiate within three months, and Remain.  …

Since Boris Johnson became prime minister, Labour have tried to cast the Conservatives as an elite — their conference slogan was “people before privilege” — while also trying to draw parallels between Donald Trump and the prime minister.

Lib Dems:

They will campaign relentlessly on Brexit. They made the controversial decision last month to vow that in the unlikely event they win a majority they would revoke Article 50, cancelling Brexit altogether. The Liberal Democrats made this move not because they expect an overall majority but because they wanted to flaunt their Remainer credentials compared with Labour. …

Nigel Farage:

The Brexit Party will be key if the Tories are to make gains in Leave voting seats, especially as Brexit has yet to be delivered. The Brexit Party are hoping to wipe out Labour’s heartlands in the northeast of England and Wales, but senior figures in the party have indicated they may not stand against incumbent Tory MPs. However until Mr Johnson makes a move toward an electoral pact, the party will campaign for a “clean break” Brexit where the UK leaves all EU institutions and then negotiates a free trade deal from outside the bloc. …

Polls:

The Conservatives have a huge lead in the polls. Recent Yougov polling puts the Tories on 37 per cent and Labour on 22 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats on 19 per cent. …

Some Cabinet ministers think that the Tories will have lost 30 seats before voters even go to the polls. The Liberal Democrats are expected to make significant gains in the southeast and southwest, and the SNP is expected to pick up Tory seats in Scotland.

It’s almost another referendum on Brexit. I’m curious to see what happens.